Anyone already post that paper FP will be gone at MK as of 1/14?

[Missyrose]

Just because someone has concerns (or even fears) about the new system doesn't mean they hate wdw or are unhappy when they are at wdw.

Yes it does. Don't you know that Disney exists in a black and white world? No shades of gray allowed.

 

[magicbob]

I never said it was.

But Disney has stated explicitly that the point of the new system is to get people out of lines and into gift shops (spending money).

Those rides have always been walk ons at rope drop. That part never changes. And even with the old fp- system, you could only pull so many per day and often had very long waits for the return times.

I agree 100%. Although there is some speculation that rope drop COULD get busier due to FP+. I tend to think human nature will not change and us RDers will maintain that advantage.

The nice thing about fp+ is that you are guaranteed three fp+'s which you can schedule to fit your trip.

But for some, that comes at the cost of a lot less overall FP opportunities and more time spent in standby lines.

All I know is that I see a lot of fear on this thread and a lot of excited and happy people on other threads. There are actually people out there who are looking forward to their trips. And there are people out there who have used the fp+ system already and it did not ruin their vacation. It is like there are two different WDW parks out there, the one where everyone is unhappy and the one where people can't wait to go to.

To be fair, there are quite a few recent trip report stating that MB/FP+ have negatively impacted on their vacations.

I think what a lot of people interpret as "fear" is really just people employing skeptical reasoning to analyze the possible outcomes of the way FP+ is being implemented. Many don't like what we see as the likely outcomes. That doesn't mean we fear it. Nor does it mean we are negative, unhappy people. I'd much rather educate myself about the potential pitfalls and be pleasantly surprised if things turn out to work better than expected than to have unrealistic expectations and be disappointed.

 

[Missyrose]

I agree 100%. Although there is some speculation that rope drop COULD get busier due to FP+. I tend to think human nature will not change and us RDers will maintain that advantage.

The game-changer for RD is the earlier FP+ times. With legacy FP, the return times didn't start until about 40 minutes after the park opened. With FP+, the return times start at park opening. So the standby line starts at a disadvantage. Will people still have a hard time getting to RD? Yes. But those that do will find standby lines that don't move quite as quickly in the first hour or two as they once did.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Yes it does. Don't you know that Disney exists in a black and white world? No shades of gray allowed.

Lol

And it is only the negative people who are making broad sweeping statements about the "other side" too

 

[magicbob]

The game-changer for RD is the earlier FP+ times. With legacy FP, the return times didn't start until about 40 minutes after the park opened. With FP+, the return times start at park opening. So the standby line starts at a disadvantage. Will people still have a hard time getting to RD? Yes. But those that do will find standby lines that don't move quite as quickly in the first hour or two as they once did.

Assuming that everyone with an early FP+ time drags themselves out of bed in time to make it to their FP+ reservation. Again... human nature will play a role. Many will INTEND to make it (just as many on-site guests INTEND to make it for EMH but often end up arriving at the EMH park later... the worst strategy!). The question is... will holding a FP+ reservation be enough of an incentive to make sure they get out the door early or will people decide to blow them off (or try unsuccessfully to make it because they are running late).

 

[lovethattink]

That I can see, and that definitely can apply to everyone using the system. They are easier to get, it just remains to be seen if desirable times will remain all day allowing people to do what you did (walk in in the middle of the afternoon and still get FP+ for what they want).

I apologize for any misunderstandings, I am not implying that your park time is easy, I know the DAS isn't assigned for no reason. All I am saying is that your experience (when you aren't talking about the convenience of getting all 3 at once) is quite different than the majority, therefore not surprising when you find yourself in the minority in discussions like this.

morethananyonex, desirable times will not remain all day. During the holiday, there were more time slots available for us. However, going after the holiday when the park closed earlier there was only 1 attraction available. Granted people onsite can plan in advance, however to change times on the spot at the park may be more difficult since it's now for both offsite and onsite guests.

Our experience is going to be different, but we've been doing Disney differently since 2010 when ds began to have all his challenges.

I think even the most vocal FP+ "naysayers" like this aspect of the system. Although there are things I have big concerns about, I do like the concept of being able to pre-book and being able to book from a single convenient location.

Right.

One of the things that I see on threads like this is how worried people are over not being able to get fp+'s for the headliner rides. It seems to me that those few rides are the only real problem people will face when fp+ is the only option. And not everyone wants to ride the headliners, or at least ride them multiple times. I think for most people the new fp+ will be fine, in fact, it may even enhance their trips. As long as they don't want to ride a headliner multiple times, the new fp+ might just be fine. We used fp+ in December and found it very convenient.

We will be at WDW in less than two weeks and I am very curious to see how it all works out at MK. The thing I am most interested in seeing is how the lines are for headliners when people are no longer able to pull multiple fp-'s for them.

We don't do the headliner attractions. So it really did enhance our park visit.

Guess it's just wait and see for a few more days. Next week the crowd levels should be fairly low. The real test will be during President's week and spring break.

 

[clsteve]

Guess it's just wait and see for a few more days. Next week the crowd levels should be fairly low. The real test will be during President's week and spring break.

Very true - and I still haven't gotten my head around how the Tour Group dynamic fits in this New World - on-site and off-site. Will they reserve 60 days ahead for 150+ people? Will they try to do it day of, in-Park? I pity the CM at the kiosk if/when that happens...

Tour Groups are such a big business for Disney, they must have a plan to make it easy for them, it would seem.

 

[estherhead]

We will be there at spring break this year. My kids are disappointed FP- is gone. But I'm not sure I am.

Our touring style has been my sister and I running around the park grabbing fps while the kids and fam leisurely tour. For the kids and others they are relaxed, happy, and totally chill. I am tired and rushed.

Now there is no running around. I feel like I have a pretty good plan and I'm personally excited about not spending all our break times racing to KS or SM to get fps.

So yeah, my kids now will only ride TT twice in a week. But I will enjoy my margarita sitting in the shade.

We'll see. Last time I was there was August so I've only experienced FP-. But I'm hopeful.

As for MK, it's a two day park for us anyway. And I think I have a pretty solid plan. I guess I'll report back April 1st.

 

[Laketravis]

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014:

1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered
2. AK and MK will not be tiered
3. The one park per day restriction will stay
4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase
5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage
6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous
7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge
8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue
9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium)
10. The app will still be buggy

I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

 

[quest4dl]

Laketravis - do you think rope drop and EMH still won't be advantageous for on-site guests? I am thinking that now the offsite RD guests (on an non-EMH day) would be stuck at the FP+ kiosks while on-site guests motor on to the attractions.

 

[Laketravis]

Laketravis - do you think rope drop and EMH still won't be advantageous for on-site guests? I am thinking that now the offsite RD guests (on an non-EMH day) would be stuck at the FP+ kiosks while on-site guests motor on to the attractions.

A rising tide lifts all boats, right? I think there will be more guests showing up for RD and EMH due to many factors. I also agree that not everyone is a morning person, but RD and EMH will be even more widely promoted as a strategy and more and more on-site guests will take that advice.

At a typical 80% occupancy level across roughly 25,000 rooms with an average of 3 guests each, even if only 10% of them decide to show up at HS RD, that's 6,000 guests. Of course, many of them will have already scheduled their FP's for later in the day because they are following yet another strategy, so they will be joining the SB lines of the popular attractions because they want to fill their park day with more than just 3 reservations for TSM, ToT, and Fantasmic.

I could be way off, but the two constants are demand pressure and resource availability. Disney may actually start to increase park hours on a highly variable and reactive basis, which is one of the more cost effect methods of increasing the capacity of popular attractions during the day. And as they get better at being able to predict crowd levels from all of the data they are collecting in terms of reservation popularity, I do think we will see much more variable park hours as a result, although I didn't include that in my top 10 predictions because that would have been #11.

 

[Laketravis]

Tour Groups are such a big business for Disney, they must have a plan to make it easy for them, it would seem.

Exactly right. They are a huge market for WDW and Disney isn't going to leave them out of any plan.

Take the Brazilians, for example, which probably constitute the largest percentage of non-domestic visitors to Orlando.

Disney also has a large number of analysts who consider long term global circumstances, and while they know much more than I ever will about those things, one thing I do know is that the Brazilian Real won't have the same purchasing power against the US dollar that it has in the past. That means less travelers to Orlando from that country, and considering the population of Brazil is upwards of 200 million people within four hours from it's epicenter, well.....Disney has built other "Worlds" in other countries with far fewer people. And that would have been my prediction #12, but not for 2014..........

 

[magicbob]

Exactly right. They are a huge market for WDW and Disney isn't going to leave them out of any plan.

Take the Brazilians, for example, which probably constitute the largest percentage of non-domestic visitors to Orlando.

Disney also has a large number of analysts who consider long term global circumstances, and while they know much more than I ever will about those things, one thing I do know is that the Brazilian Real won't have the same purchasing power against the US dollar that it has in the past. That means less travelers to Orlando from that country, and considering the population of Brazil is upwards of 200 million people within four hours from it's epicenter, well.....Disney has built other "Worlds" in other countries with far fewer people. And that would have been my prediction #12, but not for 2014..........

I can see it now. On their version of the DIS, Brazilians will be complaining about the obnoxious U.S. tour groups at Disneyland Rio!

 

[clsteve]

Disney has built other "Worlds" in other countries with far fewer people. And that would have been my prediction #12, but not for 2014..........

And that would be the ultimate irony, wouldn't it?

Disney, the big, multi-national corporation - carving out a little of the rainforest to build an AvatarLand....

 

[JaimeA]

I am so on the middle of this fence. We used it in November, it was great to have a TSM FP+ On my hand but only 3 and tiered now? Not so sure about that. I can see and understand both sides of this.

My prediction for FP+ ( I have no first hand knowledge or theme park experience )

They will tier every park and MK the most. Disney keeps saying you can FP your counter service meals ( hmmm who is going to give up a SM FP for that? No one, you will be able to choose one choice of counter service ( wow honey we can reserve our spot for a hot dog at Casey-booked)

They will tier rides obviously. But I see you getting like 8 choices one from each column. So smart disney. You just kept that guest on site in your park and eating dinner there. Oh onsite books in advance, offsite gets the leftovers, EMH gone (now we have another perk of the magic band and advance booking to take its spot)

But honey I want to ride SM again, so let's book another day at MK.

This will not work for most of us but I can see it. Hope I am wrong, I hope everyone gets 5 to do with what they want and no tierring. Disney wants you to dream right?

 

[estherhead]

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014: 1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered 2. AK and MK will not be tiered 3. The one park per day restriction will stay 4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase 5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage 6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous 7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge 8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue 9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium) 10. The app will still be buggy I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

I agree with all of this except no advantage to rope drop. Even at Disneyland where all the guests know exactly what they are doing and people are in the parks an hour earlier than off site guests, there is still an advantage to rope drop. It just will always be. And there is an advantage to staying until the park closes. Perhaps not as big an advantage but it's just not possible to change how people are. No matter what Disney does or tries it will still be the most crowded from 11am-5 pm.

Just like no matter how many early bird specials you have, a grocery store is crowded from 5-6pm.

 

[Laketravis]

I agree with all of this except no advantage to rope drop. Even at Disneyland where all the guests know exactly what they are doing and people are in the parks an hour earlier than off site guests, there is still an advantage to rope drop. It just will always be. And there is an advantage to staying until the park closes. Perhaps not as big an advantage but it's just not possible to change how people are. No matter what Disney does or tries it will still be the most crowded from 11am-5 pm.

Just like no matter how many early bird specials you have, a grocery store is crowded from 5-6pm.

I think one of the biggest advantages for Disney with FP+ is the ability to better manage demand over a time spectrum. Simple management of the times presented when users are scheduling FP+ allows Disney to flatten that demand curve throughout the day. As they push demand out to the earlier and later hours they get closer to RD and park close. The park may still be the most crowded from 11am to 5pm, but more and more guests will be pre-assigned FP times 5 minutes after RD or 20 minutes before park close.

That's why I think there will be more utilization of attractions during those periods in the past when they were under-utilized. Like RD.

 

[Mommymarie]

It's not just the time in lines but how to plan. With legacy we would pick up fastpasses based on how busy certain rides were. I have no way to predict that now and it irritates me that we might end up picking attractions that don't need fastpasses at that time. Or not. Some say that you can change on the fly but will that really be possible once everyone is on the system? Only time will tell.[/QUOTE]

I was there in December and changing on the fly was not fun....we waited for way too long at a kiosk for HS. We didn't use our TOT fp+ since there was no wait. We couldn't change the FP+ to Fantasmic because they were not in the same tier, the friendly CM was trying to talk me into a FP+ for Muppets! We just gave up and walked away....we did do the Muppets but there was no wait for so no need for a FP!

 

[Wood Nymph]

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014:

1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered
2. AK and MK will not be tiered
3. The one park per day restriction will stay
4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase
5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage
6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous
7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge
8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue
9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium)
10. The app will still be buggy

I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

I agree with all your predictions except #6. I think rope drop and EMH will always be advantageous because it is hard to get out of bed early and stay up late, and it will be the only times that people can ride Space Mountain eight times in a row without a long wait.

I'm hoping they remove tiering, though, once they see how the lines are when fp+ is the only game in town.

 

[Wood Nymph]

To be fair, there are quite a few recent trip report stating that MB/FP+ have negatively impacted on their vacations.

I think what a lot of people interpret as "fear" is really just people employing skeptical reasoning to analyze the possible outcomes of the way FP+ is being implemented. Many don't like what we see as the likely outcomes. That doesn't mean we fear it. Nor does it mean we are negative, unhappy people. I'd much rather educate myself about the potential pitfalls and be pleasantly surprised if things turn out to work better than expected than to have unrealistic expectations and be disappointed.

And there are a lot of trip reports where people were glad to have fp+. We have used it and it was great to be able schedule the rides and to change them on the fly.

One of the things that I meant when I talked about fear was people like you who aren't going to WDW for a really long time and being so very worried about something that isn't even in its final form. We used fp+ so it helps that I know what it was like. But by the time you get to WDW things can really be different. I would hate to worry for such a long period of time, especially if it all works out fine by the time you get there.