5th gate on the horizon?

[lockedoutlogic]

Future world at Epcot is certainly the next piece of low hanging fruit. The question is whether there will be any type of re-theme. I think future world is obsolete, and might make more sense to celebrate our current world and tech development. The existing popular attractions already support that concept.

Heck...they're not even doing that.

 

[Eoghann]

Future world at Epcot is certainly the next piece of low hanging fruit. The question is whether there will be any type of re-theme. I think future world is obsolete, and might make more sense to celebrate our current world and tech development. The existing popular attractions already support that concept.

Future World looks like something from the 70s... It's a giant slab of concrete. There's your first problem, before we even talk about the attractions.

 

[DVCcurious]

Personally I think you are one more universal theme park away from a 5th gate at WDW. They need to get the DHS refurb done and address EC before they address a 5th gate by which time Universal should be ready for another gate. Let's say within 10 years? Thoughts?

Are you saying they could build a 5th park within 10 years of announcing it? I think that's a stretch. It took them like 5 years to build New Fantasyland after announcing it, and that's just this tiny piece of land. Star Wars Land was announced in 2015 and we all expect it to be finished in like 2020, which is 5 years. It's going to take one year to build a Frozen ride. One entire year for one ride? An entire new theme park would probably take Disney 15 years to build.

So if you assume that they wouldn't announce a 5th park until Avatarland, Toy Story Land, and Star Wars Land are completed (at the very earliest), you're looking at 2035 before the new park would open. 2020 Star Wars Land is finished, plus 15 years to build the 5th park = 2035 opening date.

So, sure, there COULD be a 5th park at some point. But none of us will be alive to see it.

 

[rteetz]

Are you saying they could build a 5th park within 10 years of announcing it? I think that's a stretch. It took them like 5 years to build New Fantasyland after announcing it, and that's just this tiny piece of land. Star Wars Land was announced in 2015 and we all expect it to be finished in like 2020, which is 5 years. It's going to take one year to build a Frozen ride. One entire year for one ride? An entire new theme park would probably take Disney 15 years to build.

So if you assume that they wouldn't announce a 5th park until Avatarland, Toy Story Land, and Star Wars Land are completed (at the very earliest), you're looking at 2035 before the new park would open. 2020 Star Wars Land is finished, plus 15 years to build the 5th park = 2035 opening date.

So, sure, there COULD be a 5th park at some point. But none of us will be alive to see it.

They definitely could build a park in ten years from announcement, why couldn't they? They built Epcot in 2 and a half.

It also did not take them 5 years to build new fantasyland. It was four and had phased opening its not like everything opened at once.

Star Wars land is expected to be finished in 2019. You need to stop looking at announcement dates and start looking at construction dates. Star Wars will start construction later this year and is expected to open in 2019 so that's 3 years.

 

[hedberg1661]

They definitely could build a park in ten years from announcement, why couldn't they? They built Epcot in 2 and a half.

It also did not take them 5 years to build new fantasyland. It was four and had phased opening its not like everything opened at once.

Star Wars land is expected to be finished in 2019. You need to stop looking at announcement dates and start looking at construction dates. Star Wars will start construction later this year and is expected to open in 2019 so that's 3 years.

Yes I agree. To clarify...do I see a park popping up in the next ten years? No. However, do I see an announcement in the next ten years...yes. Disney will have to keep up with the market in Florida given the amount of money and effort Universal is sinking into their parks.

 

[George4]

The long construction times, right now, are more than likely a choice to spread out financing over multiple quarters so that no single quarterly report gets hammered due to the cost of any single (or multiple) project. The other complication is available labor. Disney (as with any company) only has access to only so much low cost labor. Bringing in laborers from other locations drives up the cost. If there is no pressing need to do so, it makes more sense to let a smaller crew do the work over more time, and save money. There is so much growth in the Orlando and central Florida area that you just don't have access the construction crews to build rapidly (while building other big projects), and you don't have access to enough cheap labor to run a new facility.

I will still stand by the idea (based on growth numbers) that they are 10-15 years from announcing a new park, simply to put the additional people that keep coming to the parks, despite the cost. Of course, I also stand by the belief that Disney is pinning themselves in a corner with cutting out a large part of their visitor market. Lots of people from overseas are visiting WDW because the exchange rate has been encouraging the cheaper travel to the US has been a good expense, but even that is starting to change. The middle class in the US is getting smaller (or at least has less discretionary income for a big vacation), so you are gradually pricing out that market as well. Things look good right now, but as other posters have mentioned, the Disney company is beginning to experience declines in many areas of their business. I think many people are overselling the disaster (ESPN will become less profitable, but thanks to college sports it won't be a complete loss any time soon), and EuroDisney is struggling with debt, but the company makes enough to pay that off if they want in very short order. The park may not be able to pay off its debt, but the company can, if they chose to. Right now, it makes more sense to keep the loss to avoid having to pay some taxes in Europe. It's all about managing the finances carefully to benefit the company. Cost-cutting at WDW is more likely about generating more profit (the recent mantra for most US corporations) for the shareholders than it is about dire financial straits.

 

[DVCcurious]

They definitely could build a park in ten years from announcement, why couldn't they? They built Epcot in 2 and a half.

Yeah....like in the 70's or early 80s!!!

See....there's this government agency called the E.P.A. And let's just say that under the new rules it takes like 4 years to get a permit through to open a gas station!

Regulation related to the environment is....like a bazillion times different in 2016 than 1980. And with WDW being built on a massive wetland....well let's just say that it would take 2.5 years for the EPA to approve a new stoplight at an intersection!

 

[rteetz]

Yeah....like in the 70's or early 80s!!!

See....there's this government agency called the E.P.A. And let's just say that under the new rules it takes like 4 years to get a permit through to open a gas station!

Regulation related to the environment is....like a bazillion times different in 2016 than 1980. And with WDW being built on a massive wetland....well let's just say that it would take 2.5 years for the EPA to approve a new stoplight at an intersection!

What about something like Disney springs? Currently under construction doubling the size of the previous area not taking 10 years. Then there's Animal Kingdom. Did that take 10 years? That opened in 1998 well after the 80s... This isn't a gas station...

 

[DVCcurious]

What about something like Disney springs? Currently under construction doubling the size of the previous area not taking 10 years. Then there's Animal Kingdom. Did that take 10 years? That opened in 1998 well after the 80s... This isn't a gas station...

Figure out when the very first permit for Disney Springs or Animal Kingdom was filed with the EPA then get back to me on your claim that it's not taking 10 years. For all we know AK's first paperwork could've been submitted to the government during the Reagan administration.

Right now there's massive "anti corporate" and "pro environment" leadership within the EPA. So I think there would be a ton of feet dragging in getting the paperwork finished. So, I stand by my statement: "There's no WAY an entire new park gets built within 10 years of the time Disney Execs agree to move forward on the project".

After all, we gotta save those endangered....whatevers.....in the Florida swampland!

 

[OKW Lover]

And with WDW being built on a massive wetland....well let's just say that it would take 2.5 years for the EPA to approve a new stoplight at an intersection!

Clearly not the case. Look at the stoplight on World Drive after you pass through the toll plaza on your way to the MK Resorts.

 

[rteetz]

Figure out when the very first permit for Disney Springs or Animal Kingdom was filed with the EPA then get back to me on your claim that it's not taking 10 years. For all we know AK's first paperwork could've been submitted to the government during the Reagan administration.

Right now there's massive "anti corporate" and "pro environment" leadership within the EPA. So I think there would be a ton of feet dragging in getting the paperwork finished. So, I stand by my statement: "There's no WAY an entire new park gets built within 10 years of the time Disney Execs agree to move forward on the project".

After all, we gotta save those endangered....whatevers.....in the Florida swampland!

So you don't have any proof of any of this so how do you know that it wasn't done in less than 10 years?

 

[Spacedog1975]

Right now there's massive "anti corporate" and "pro environment" leadership within the EPA. So I think there would be a ton of feet dragging in getting the paperwork finished. So, I stand by my statement: "There's no WAY an entire new park gets built within 10 years of the time Disney Execs agree to move forward on the project".

The point of the EPA is for the environment, not for corporations. Or do you not know what EPA stands for?

 

[Eoghann]

The point of the EPA is for the environment, not for corporations. Or do you not know what EPA stands for?

Are we really now arguing over the length of time it would take to build a park, that not only hasn't been announced, but may never ever be announced?

 

[Spacedog1975]

Are we really now arguing over the length of time it would take to build a park, that not only hasn't been announced, but may never ever be announced?

If you scan back, I'm firmly in the "no new park on the horizon" camp. I took exception specifically to what I quoted, which if you read it to yourself a few times will spin your brain.

 

[DVCcurious]

The point of the EPA is for the environment, not for corporations. Or do you not know what EPA stands for?

Exactly my point. Clearly you agree that the EPA will make it as difficult as possible on a corporation. Thank you.

 

[DVCcurious]

So you don't have any proof of any of this so how do you know that it wasn't done in less than 10 years?

http://themickeywiki.com/index.php?title=Disney's_Animal_Kingdom

"Although the plans for Disney's Animal Kingdom began in 1989,"

"When Walt Disney World was ready to expand again in 1989, Michael Eisner (the CEO of Disney) tasked his Imagineers with creating a theme park based on animals."

1989 - 1998 opening is 9 years.

When you consider all of the new regulations thanks to the "global warming" crowd do you really think you could open a theme park quicker in 2020's than you could in the 90s?

 

[rteetz]

I have no proof of anything.

But I do have two ears and I hear what's going on politically and it doesn't sound good for a mega corporation who wants to build on a wetland.

Disney moves around their land all the time and has plenty of land suitable for construction. You are the first I've ever seen bring up the EPA as a problem with building a park. We should probably look into a more recent park built in the area because there are plenty announced in the state of Florida and a lot do not ever come to be but not because of the EPA but because of funding.

 

[rteetz]

Exactly my point. Clearly you agree that the EPA will make it as difficult as possible on a corporation. Thank you.

They were questioning why you said "there is a pro environment anti-corporation leadership with the EPA" isn't that exactly what the EPA is supposed to be? Why wouldn't they be pro environment and anti corporation? That really wasn't clear in your post.

 

[DVCcurious]

They were questioning why you said "there is a pro environment anti-corporation leadership with the EPA" isn't that exactly what the EPA is supposed to be? Why wouldn't they be pro environment and anti corporation? That really wasn't clear in your post.

Yes, Yes, Yes! Thanks! You guys are agreeing with me and you just don't see it.

Of COURSE the EPA is supposed to be pro-environment and anti-corporation. That's my ENTIRE point!

It took 9 years to build AK in the 90s. And in the 2010's/2020's the EPA is a heckuva lot bigger, with more employees, more regulations, and more power than they were back in the 1990s.

So if it took 9 years 30 years ago with a weaker, smaller EPA......how could anyone believe it would take LESS time in 2020's with a much stronger EPA?

 

[DVCcurious]

Disney moves around their land all the time and has plenty of land suitable for construction. You are the first I've ever seen bring up the EPA as a problem with building a park. We should probably look into a more recent park built in the area because there are plenty announced in the state of Florida and a lot do not ever come to be but not because of the EPA but because of funding.

We're not talking about 'could the park be built' we're talking about 'could the park be built within 10 years'.

I'm not saying the EPA would stop a 5th park from being built, I'm saying the EPA would prolong the time prior to construction enough to delay park opening for 10+ years after the Executives decide to build the new park.

So, to come full circle, all I've said is this:

Star Wars Land won't be finished until 2020. I doubt WDW will be jumping on the 5th park immediately after Star Wars is finished. So the earliest I see them starting is 2025. Furthermore, it will take 10+ years to build a new park from the minute the Execs decide to build it. Therefore a new park won't open it's doors until 2035 at the very earliest. And, lastly, we'll all be dead in 2035 so why are we even discussing this?