El Nino - will it affect Thanksgiving?

melbatoast said:

The reason I'm asking, is because El Nino is all over the news, saying there will be record rainfall, with flooding and mudslides etc. in California this winter. I'm just wondering with the official date of winter being December 21, if we were safe from the approaching El Nino if we visit November 25-28. If there might be torrential rain during that time caused by El Nino, I will book a trip to Florida instead! I am going to need to decide soon so I can get some plane tickets, so just wondering if this El Nino thing is all hype and prediction, or if native Californians actually notice an increase in rain during El Nino years.

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If El Nino were to happen, then you will experience greater-than-average rainfall in Anaheim and in Orlando! Here is a graphic depicting El Nino rainfall anomalies. Do you see that Florida and California receive greater-than-normal rainfall?



You need to understand that even during an El Nino season, it is extremely unlikely that rain will fall every single day. An El Nino season means an increased likelihood of rain and a rise in rainfall totals, making each month and the total season wetter-than-normal. But what kind of rain does this mean, day-by-day?

This morning I went to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) website and ordered daily weather summaries in Anaheim, CA for 11/1/1997 - 12/31/1997, the beginning of our last major El Nino season. Here are Anaheim's Daily Rainfall Rates for November and December, 1997:



NOAA reported five days that had rain in November and six rainy days in December, the rest being dry days. And of those days, you can see that only four had daily rainfall totals over 1/2 inch. Now, these past data do not predict how spread out rainy days will be this year. You might experience several rainy days in a row. But remember that El Nino also means a wet event in Orlando. To sum up: Odds are likely you will not experience heavy-all-day rains, whether you choose Orlando or Anaheim, but the chances are greater in an El Nino season that you will experience some form of rain with either choice.

Kittyskyfish said:

If El Nino were to happen, then you will experience greater-than-average rainfall in Anaheim and in Orlando! Here is a graphic depicting El Nino rainfall anomalies. Do you see that Florida and California receive greater-than-normal rainfall?

You need to understand that even during an El Nino season, it is extremely unlikely that rain will fall every single day. An El Nino season means an increased likelihood of rain and a rise in rainfall totals, making each month and the total season wetter-than-normal. But what kind of rain does this mean, day-by-day?

This morning I went to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) website and ordered daily weather summaries in Anaheim, CA for 11/1/1997 - 12/31/1997, the beginning of our last major El Nino season. Here are Anaheim's Daily Rainfall Rates for November and December, 1997:

NOAA reported five days that had rain in November and six rainy days in December, the rest being dry days. And of those days, you can see that only four had daily rainfall totals over 1/2 inch. Now, these past data do not predict how spread out rainy days will be this year. You might experience several rainy days in a row. But remember that El Nino also means a wet event in Orlando. To sum up: Odds are likely you will not experience heavy-all-day rains, whether you choose Orlando or Anaheim, but the chances are greater in an El Nino season that you will experience some form of rain with either choice.

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I have been worrying about our trip in December and this makes me feel better now- thanks!! I know DLR is awesome even if it rains, but its nice to see some data like this to ease my mind it won't rain HARD daily for a week we are there. We are in Northern CA and it can rain several inches daily for weeks here so.... LOL yay for SoCal rain

millie0312 said:

I have been worrying about our trip in December and this makes me feel better now- thanks!! I know DLR is awesome even if it rains, but its nice to see some data like this to ease my mind it won't rain HARD daily for a week we are there. We are in Northern CA and it can rain several inches daily for weeks here so.... LOL yay for SoCal rain

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Never say never. It certainly can rain hard for several days on end, but it's not likely. I mean - worrying too much about the weather can be counterproductive. Who would visit subtropical areas like Hawaii or Florida if terribly worried about whether it was going to rain hard?

bcla said:

Never say never. It certainly can rain hard for several days on end, but it's not likely. I mean - worrying too much about the weather can be counterproductive. Who would visit subtropical areas like Hawaii or Florida if terribly worried about whether it was going to rain hard?

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Lol If I didn't have a 1 year old with us (rubber boots with him just starting out walking should be fun LOL) I wouldn't be as worried, but the baby brings cold/rain into a whole new thought process (although I'm a worrying kind of person so I worry about the rain at home with him too lol). My DD is older so getting wet is not as big of a deal. We were so lucky to go last year so we rode 99.9% of the rides we wanted to already so closures would suck but not a huge deal. Baby plus wet is the rough part- not sure he will be so pleased with being under a stroller cover or covered by rain suits or ponchos. Last year we really lucked out and it rained completely around our park days- heres to hoping for a repeat

I love how educational this site is! No, seriously, I learn something new (non-Disney) every time I come here. Bring on the Godzilla El Nino! We need to fill up all these lakes in Arizona.

bakerudall said:

I love how educational this site is! No, seriously, I learn something new (non-Disney) every time I come here. Bring on the Godzilla El Nino! We need to fill up all these lakes in Arizona.

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You want to hear something even more amazing? I've learned that the biggest rainfall events in the state's history have not even been the result of an El Nino! Back in the winter of 1861-62 the state was battered by a near continuous string of storms which caused widespread destruction and bankrupted the state. In January alone Los Angeles received a total of 35 inches of rain!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

Kittyskyfish -- I appreciate your post, but I am going to have to respectfully disagree with you in that I think it is much more likely that we will get periods of time in which it rains every single day, as compared to a non-El Nino year. I have gone through enough El Nino rainy seasons (and I have lived in L.A. since 1967) to be able to say, with confidence, that yes, indeed, it can rain every single day, for weeks on end -- and it can be torrential, or, at least, very heavy.

That said, I don't think that the strength and severity of rain is exactly the same in all areas of California, nor would it be the same in California vs. Florida. Some areas get hit harder than others, and at all different times. For example, even though 1997 was supposedly the strongest El Nino year, my immediate area was not impacted as much that year as other areas were. My area got hit a lot harder in different El Nino years.

I have said before that I was watching the calendar one year to see if we reached the "40 days and 40 nights"/biblical level of rain, because the rain was coming down for weeks (that was not even in 1997 -- which was supposedly a stronger El Nino year), and it seemed like it would never stop. They could not even fix the roof on my building for a month because the rain would not stop long enough for anyone to be able to repair it. There was another year in which I was walking to work every day and trying to jump over flooded street corners without slipping and falling. The flooding happens because the rain won't stop -- and certainly not stop long enough to begin to dry out -- and the ground gets oversaturated, and the storm drains back up. I was showing up to work every day looking like a drowned rat!

I'm sorry -- I'm not trying to worry anyone. There is no point in worrying. The rain will either come along or it won't. The rain will either be heavy and relentless, or it won't. Disneyland may or may not be impacted. It probably won't rain that much in November, but it also may rain. There is nothing we can do to affect it either way, and we won't know what's going to happen for another few months. Things could fizzle out by then.

However, that said, I am a realist, and I've seen some comments on this board that lead me to believe people don't really get how much of a mess the El Nino rain can be, or realize exactly what kind of rain comes along with a strong El Nino, let alone a Godzilla one. I guess that those who have never experienced problems or damages that have come up from all of that rain won't think it's that bad. (The Texas rains that happened a few months ago and caused all that flooding were El Nino-related, by the way.)

The good news is that the residents of California will be the ones who have to deal with more trouble than what the non-Californian Disneyland visitors will have to deal with -- if El Nino unleashes its mighty wrath on us!

Just keep all eyes peeled on the news and read reports about El Nino's progress -- or hopeful fizzling -- over the next couple of months, and be prepared with the necessary rain gear and all of that, just in case!

The devastation from weather can be terrible, but it is definitely a necessary evil if we want snow-capped mountains, full reservoirs, and ground water. Here in AZ, we have the annual monsoon that causes deadly dust storms, flooding, microbursts, and power outages in the middle of the summer. Without it, however, Southern Arizona would be completely barren.

I still wouldn't change any vacation plans over a long-term weather prediction, though.

Sherry E said:

The good news is that the residents of California will be the ones who have to deal with more trouble than what the non-Californian Disneyland visitors will have to deal with -- if El Nino unleashes its mighty wrath on us!

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I think this is the main takeaway. As bad as it can get for some area residents, it may have little to no impact on tourists visiting Disneyland. Rather than digging up average rainfall totals it'd be better if we could find reports of the actual impacts to tourists.

^^ Very true, what bakerudall said (and what sheetz said as well). There is no point in changing plans -- especially if that's the only time one can go to DLR! Whatever happens, everyone will make the best of it and deal with it. It might mean a lot of time spent in the GCH lobby!

Oh, that reminds me... in the past, at times when it has rained a lot at DLR (like enough to be a hassle), Chip and Dale showed up to interact with people in the GCH lobby. I remember seeing photos of that a few years back. I don't think they show up there on just a normal SoCal rainy day, with reasonable rain. I think the rain would have to be constant or very heavy, and get to the point of being a problem in the parks, before they make a lobby appearance. but it's something that could happen IF we get slammed with a lot of rain later this year. So look for Chip and Dale in the GCH lobby if the rain turns out to be ongoing and annoying!

Oregon weather forecasters are forecasting August Saturday, 29th, to be unlike any other weather in the history of an Oregon august. 60 MPH winds on the coast, never in August, gust of 45 in the Valley. Forecast calls for power outages and significant damage to summer time tents, awnings, sun protection gear, and such that has never to be anchored in the summer from such wind gusts. This is weather that usually surfaces around the third week or end of September, Columbus day storm being the granddaddy of them all. I bring this to attention as folks are wondering when El nino kicks in, well this could be the start. The weather system is fragments from the typhoons, but once again, way to early for such behavior.

Disneyland in the rain is better than sunshine while you're at work. The rain helps keep the locals away from Disneyland so the crowds are smaller.

Well, we were there last Dec....9th and 10th if remember correctly. It rained constantly, with the exception of about 90 mins early on Wed morning!!! I still have no idea what I saw. My poncho was so far down over my face I never really saw where I was or how I got there!!! Yes, the crowds were minimal, and that was nice.
So, I'm headed back again, the Sat after Thanksgiving through Tues of the next week. So, be prepared people. That's when it will rain buckets!!! My friend has already said that if it rains for our trip, she is going to know I am the rain-maker!!! I'll be well prepared with appropriate foot gear and ponchos!!

goofy4tink said:

Well, we were there last Dec....9th and 10th if remember correctly. It rained constantly, with the exception of about 90 mins early on Wed morning!!! I still have no idea what I saw. My poncho was so far down over my face I never really saw where I was or how I got there!!! Yes, the crowds were minimal, and that was nice.
So, I'm headed back again, the Sat after Thanksgiving through Tues of the next week. So, be prepared people. That's when it will rain buckets!!! My friend has already said that if it rains for our trip, she is going to know I am the rain-maker!!! I'll be well prepared with appropriate foot gear and ponchos!!

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Gosh, we were there that same week last year and I recall the bad rain on Saturday the 12th, but don't remember any rain the 9th or 10th.

goofy4tink said:

Well, we were there last Dec....9th and 10th if remember correctly. It rained constantly, with the exception of about 90 mins early on Wed morning!!! I still have no idea what I saw. My poncho was so far down over my face I never really saw where I was or how I got there!!! Yes, the crowds were minimal, and that was nice.
So, I'm headed back again, the Sat after Thanksgiving through Tues of the next week. So, be prepared people. That's when it will rain buckets!!! My friend has already said that if it rains for our trip, she is going to know I am the rain-maker!!! I'll be well prepared with appropriate foot gear and ponchos!!

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So if you could make a trip to our dry Bay Area around that time we would appreciate it!! Maybe you can plan on visiting the Walt Disney Family Museum and bring us some rain!