El Nino - will it affect Thanksgiving?

[melbatoast]

Calling all Californians, wondering if the El Nino will affect our Thanksgiving at Disneyland. When they say it will arrive in winter, do they mean early December, or more like Jan, Feb???? Also, is it usually dry around Thanksgiving, or more rainy? Thanks!

 

[chickapin parterre]

consensus here on this site is that destructive rain patterns have a Dec-March pattern. However, the current Pacific Ocean has never existed in recorded history so there could be an early start to an event that has no calendar to follow. Just be prepared with extra shoes, heavy duty rain gear and limited access to attractions. Also be prepared that entry and leaving California could also be part of the overall weather problem.

 

[mrkyyyle]

Also just an FYI the rainy season in Southern California can start as early as mid to late October and run through late winter. Looking forward to the rain here personally (I'm local and enjoy going to DLR even in the rain as it is less busy!)

 

[Kittyskyfish]

El Nino or not, no one can predict Thanksgiving weather this early. Period.

Go prepared with rain suits and boonie hats and if it rains, stay dry and comfortable and enjoy the low crowds and short wait times a steady rain brings Disneyland guests.

We went last year, November 30th to December 7th. It rained almost non-stop for two days but we were dry to the skin in our Frogg Toggs Ultra-Lite2 suits
and waterproof Keens. I think we had at least 100 people soaked under torn, thin ponchos ask us where we bought them! These lightweight suits run $20-25 apiece and are made for adults and kids, plus you can usually find them at any hunting and fishing outfitter. Seek out a retailer with a return policy so you can buy them before the trip and return them (new/unused) if it doesn't rain while you're there.

http://www.froggtoggs.com/mens/all-weather-suits/the-frogg-toggsr-ultra-lite2tm.html
http://www.froggtoggs.com/kids/youth/yout-ultra-lite-rain-suit.html

Don't worry if rain will cancel fireworks. High winds are common in the fall/winter and will cancel fireworks on otherwise pretty days. You just gotta go with the flow!

 

[gottalovepluto]

El Nino or not, no one can predict Thanksgiving weather this early. Period.

Go prepared with rain suits and boonie hats and if it rains, stay dry and comfortable and enjoy the low crowds and short wait times a steady rain brings Disneyland guests.

We went last year, November 30th to December 7th. It rained almost non-stop for two days but we were dry to the skin in our Frogg Toggs Ultra-Lite2 suits
and waterproof Keens. I think we had at least 100 people soaked under torn, thin ponchos ask us where we bought them! These lightweight suits run $20-25 apiece and are made for adults and kids, plus you can usually find them at any hunting and fishing outfitter. Seek out a retailer with a return policy so you can buy them before the trip and return them (new/unused) if it doesn't rain while you're there.

http://www.froggtoggs.com/mens/all-weather-suits/the-frogg-toggsr-ultra-lite2tm.html
http://www.froggtoggs.com/kids/youth/yout-ultra-lite-rain-suit.html

Don't worry if rain will cancel fireworks. High winds are common in the fall/winter and will cancel fireworks on otherwise pretty days. You just gotta go with the flow!

Those look AWESOME. I am book marking that site in case I ever go to DL when it might rain (I'm optimistic, I've never seen the park during the holidays).

 

[Sherry E]

I'm a Californian who has experienced many an El Nino year, but I feel I have given so much El Nino info and expanded in detail so much in other threads that I am sounding like a broken record.

The bottom line is that most scientists agree that California will see above-average rainfall this year. Some of them say that Southern California will get the worst of it. It is looking like we are going to get a lot of rain, but scientists differ on how much, how heavy it will be, how relentless it will be, etc. Some of them say late fall/early winter, with the intensity of the rain reaching a peak in the first half of winter. No one knows yet if the El Nino conditions that are currently forming will dissipate or fizzle enough to not pack as strong of a punch as expected. The next couple of months will tell the tale.

As to exact dates, there is no way to know what the weather will be on Thanksgiving at this point. Just watch weather reports, stay tuned to this forum and be prepared.

 

[beachdreamr1229]

I'd keep an eye out for weather reports 2 weeks or less out from when you go. Usually Thanksgiving is cool in the evenings regardless of what the weather is like during the day, so bring a jacket (not a parka unless you're from a hot part of the world). Otherwise, you'll have to wait and see. Everything I've seen points to December and January for the brunt of rain, but I remember one El Nino October with pouring rain and I know the last time we had a moderate to strong El Nino, there were floods by early December. As for accuracy of reports, I like Weather Underground and Accuweather for Anaheim. Accuweather does forecasts about 45 days out. They're typically not correct and change closer to the actual date, but it's a jumping off point at least.

 

[bcla]

El Nino or not, no one can predict Thanksgiving weather this early. Period.

Yeah - I'm finding the way the question was stated to be a little bit odd. Since when has there ever been any kind of ability to predict whether or not it would rain in a specific timeframe three months ahead? Maybe it will rain or maybe it won't. However, rain around California tends to be sporadic. Maybe we get more rain and more days of rain, but it's pretty much impossible to do anything more than estimate the chances. And in any case, the "rainy season" doesn't mean the rain won't stop for weeks or that there won't be a chance of a break in the rain for days.

That being said, I remember spending a Saturday after Thanksgiving when it rained that day and night. The rain stopped and started again. It was great.

 

[sheetz]

The LA Times has a good article about what we might expect with a strong El Nino and what has happened in the past. Here's what happened in 1997-98.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...ino-winter-california-20150821-htmlstory.html

 

[Sherry E]

The LA Times has a good article about what we might expect with a strong El Nino and what has happened in the past. Here's what happened in 1997-98.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...ino-winter-california-20150821-htmlstory.html

Yep. That about sums it up. While I don't think there is any point in worrying about it, it is not something to be taken lightly... which is what I have been saying on this board all along. It causes a lot of problems in a state like this, which is not prepared for that kind of rain -- and it's really only the major issues that get reported on the news. There are all kinds of 'smaller' issues and costly damages that neighborhoods, houses, apartment buildings, garages, cars, animals, people, offices, etc., have to deal with that no one hears about.

I did laugh at the "El Gecko" comment at the end.

 

[Aussie Princess]

The weather channel just released its projected temps for the next 3 months saw the article on fb they were saying below average temps for the next 3 mths in the so cal area

 

[Sherry E]

The weather channel just released its projected temps for the next 3 months saw the article on fb they were saying below average temps for the next 3 mths in the so cal area

I'm all for below average temperatures in SoCal! I have had enough of the crazy heat waves that seem to love to pop up in September, or linger into October.

 

[bcla]

I'm all for below average temperatures in SoCal! I have had enough of the crazy heat waves that seem to love to pop up in September, or linger into October.

The last time I went to Disneyland around Thanksgiving it was extremely pleasant in maybe the low to mid 70s F. That being said, I don't really find the weather in LA and Orange Counties that great year round. It's mostly inland and hot as heck during the summer. Give me water regulated temperatures like Vancouver, San Diego, or the San Francisco Bay Area.

 

[Sherry E]

The last time I went to Disneyland around Thanksgiving it was extremely pleasant in maybe the low to mid 70s F. That being said, I don't really find the weather in LA and Orange Counties that great year round. It's mostly inland and hot as heck during the summer. Give me water regulated temperatures like Vancouver, San Diego, or the San Francisco Bay Area.

I definitely agree. The temperatures can feel substantially different near the water, with the breeze wafting in, than what they feel like when you get more inland.

 

[Aussie Princess]

I'm all for below average temperatures in SoCal! I have had enough of the crazy heat waves that seem to love to pop up in September, or linger into October.

Well I can second crazy weather it's still winter here and today was 27 degrees Celsius still got
Another 8 days til spring

 

[bcla]

I definitely agree. The temperatures can feel substantially different near the water, with the breeze wafting in, than what they feel like when you get more inland.

Yeah, I guess it nicer near the water. Even where I live the inland locations get hotter, but it's all relative. I suppose in the Midwest it goes from freezing to hot and humid. A "Mediterranean climate" is generally pretty rare.

 

[AZpharmacist]

We went early December last year and it rained for 3 out of our 4 days. I was prepared (rain boots, ponchos and hats). We got wet but DL was nice and empty bc of the rain. However, a lot of rides went down and fireworks were cancelled twice. RSR, Screamin, Alice, teacups were down most of the trip

 

[melbatoast]

Yeah - I'm finding the way the question was stated to be a little bit odd. Since when has there ever been any kind of ability to predict whether or not it would rain in a specific timeframe three months ahead? Maybe it will rain or maybe it won't. However, rain around California tends to be sporadic. Maybe we get more rain and more days of rain, but it's pretty much impossible to do anything more than estimate the chances. And in any case, the "rainy season" doesn't mean the rain won't stop for weeks or that there won't be a chance of a break in the rain for days.

That being said, I remember spending a Saturday after Thanksgiving when it rained that day and night. The rain stopped and started again. It was great.

The reason I'm asking, is because El Nino is all over the news, saying there will be record rainfall, with flooding and mudslides etc. in California this winter. I'm just wondering with the official date of winter being December 21, if we were safe from the approaching El Nino if we visit November 25-28. If there might be torrential rain during that time caused by El Nino, I will book a trip to Florida instead! I am going to need to decide soon so I can get some plane tickets, so just wondering if this El Nino thing is all hype and prediction, or if native Californians actually notice an increase in rain during El Nino years.

 

[bcla]

The reason I'm asking, is because El Nino is all over the news, saying there will be record rainfall, with flooding and mudslides etc. in California this winter. I'm just wondering with the official date of winter being December 21, if we were safe from the approaching El Nino if we visit November 25-28. If there might be torrential rain during that time caused by El Nino, I will book a trip to Florida instead! I am going to need to decide soon so I can get some plane tickets, so just wondering if this El Nino thing is all hype and prediction, or if native Californians actually notice an increase in rain during El Nino years.

Again, how do you predict the weather months in advance? One time I visited Las Vegas, who would have been able to guess that it was going to be a huge downpour around Christmas? On my visit to Arizona it rained hard for the first time in a year.

I wouldn't really worry about it. Your chances of encountering heavy rains is greater in Florida that time of year, El Niño or not. Traditionally El Niño rainfall in California peaks around February.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...ino-winter-california-20150821-htmlstory.html

 

[Sherry E]

Yes.... there is definitely, absolutely, positively an increase in rain during El Nino years -- even in El Nino years when the El Nino is not supposed to be a "massive" event, there is a lot of heavy, relentless rain. Rain was coming through my ceiling. Rain was all over my floor. The roof of my building couldn't be fixed for a month because they had to wait for the rain to stop long enough to be able to repair it. Storm drains back up quickly. The ground gets saturated quickly. It is a real thing -- not just hype. Of course, not every area will see flooding and mudslides -- those events tend to happen in the areas that are more prone to them, or near hillsides, near lakes/rivers, etc. -- but a lot of rain can certainly affect normal operations at Disneyland, to an extent.

My guess is that the worst of the rain will not be happening by Thanksgiving, if any rain happens at all by that time. When the scientists say winter, if anything, that might mean a delay (from early winter to mid-winter), but probably not an earlier arrival than expected. There is still a chance that El Nino could fizzle or weaken a bit, and it might not hit us as hard as it looks like it will right now. But even a lesser El Nino still involves much more rain than we normally ever get.