When to buy airfare?

lvdis · Apr 23, 2015

I'm planning a trip to Disneyland in early December and trying to decide when to purchase airfare. I've been watching flights for a while now to try and determine the best dates and fares. I know we are still pretty early for that time frame, but I've found a set of dates that is cheapest at this point from a small airport that is near us in the midwest to SNA (which I would prefer over LAX). The cost hasn't changed since I've been checking for almost a month now. It is currently $343 roundtrip per person. Not terrible, but I'm used to getting lower prices when we fly other places!

My question is, should I go ahead and buy at that price or is it likely to go down over the next few months? The dates for this rate are 12/5 - 12/9/2015. Flight times going are 6am - 11:35am, coming home are 1:36pm - 10:10pm both with a layover in Chicago. I can live with the times as long as they don't change significantly. This is a United flight.

I'm not sure whether to wait for Southwest to release flights for those dates and see what their cost is, but then we'd be flying out of a bigger airport which is 2 hours away from home and possibly needing to fly into LAX.

Any opinions? Thanks!

xlxo · Apr 23, 2015

Thoughts...

they say 54 days is the magic date for best airfare value
look into travelling Tuesday/Wednesdays for savings
airfare prices are different at different hours of the day

rwdavis2 · Apr 23, 2015

There's not way to predict it. If you are comfortable with that price then buy it. It's like predicting lottery number. But, flying more towards the middle of the week is usually less expensive.

lvdis · Apr 23, 2015

rwdavis2 said:
There's not way to predict it. If you are comfortable with that price then buy it. It's like predicting lottery number. But, flying more towards the middle of the week is usually less expensive.

I know, I was just looking for a reference on when to buy for December airfare and whether this price seemed reasonable. I just can't decide whether to wait and see what SW has to offer out of the bigger airport. I think I saw their flights through December will be available May 14, but I'm getting anxious!

I agree, I thought flying mid week would be better too, but I use a site that lets you look at a month of airfares and it turns out traveling Sat - Wed is quite a bit cheaper than the other days at this point flying out of that airport. Now when I look at another airport about the same distance from home, but in another direction, Tues - Sat is cheaper out of all the flights there, but still not as low as this one. I originally didn't even consider Sat-Wed, but if it's cheapest I'll make it work!

rwdavis2 · Apr 23, 2015

You're probably correct in waiting for Southwest. Does your airport fly non-stop to connectors to John Wayne? I've hears it's a nice airport to get around in. Nice and compact.

lvdis · Apr 24, 2015

No it doesn't have non-stop into SNA, that's the only downside.

Hoping to get some feedback from others who have flown in December, how far in advance did you purchase your airfare? Thanks!

sam_gordon · Apr 25, 2015

lvdis said:
No it doesn't have non-stop into SNA, that's the only downside.

Hoping to get some feedback from others who have flown in December, how far in advance did you purchase your airfare? Thanks!

The problem is you actually can't use others' experiences to help you decide when to buy. The departure airport, the arrival airport, the airline, and the exact date & time of the flights will all factor in to the cost.

lvdis · Apr 25, 2015

sam_gordon said:
The problem is you actually can't use others' experiences to help you decide when to buy. The departure airport, the arrival airport, the airline, and the exact date & time of the flights will all factor in to the cost.

Well, I realize that! I was just looking for general comparisons on what others have done.

I've been watching various flights (airlines, airports, dates, times) for about a month now and the prices haven't changed at all during that time. I'm guessing we are still just too far out from December.

jec6613 · Apr 25, 2015

Yes, you're too far out to get real price drops, you won't see any until at least September. Are your dates flexible and are you okay not going? Then you can wait. Are your dates fixed? Buy soon-ish: it's really that simple.

Those prices aren't bad at all for airfare in and out of a smaller airport, although I'm sure some LAX routing would be cheaper, and possibly a direct flight (which would make up for the less convenient airport).

FWIW, I booked my flights to MCO already for early December because I'm not at all flexible.

MillauFr · Apr 25, 2015

SNA is a better airport to fly into but if LAX was your only non-stop option I would chose that flight instead.

DISNEY1975 · May 2, 2015

They say the magic number is 54 days prior, but it really depends on the season. Summer months tend to be higher and booked earlier, as its summer vacation for the kiddos. I would not book outside a 4 month window, which you already seem to be within. I have noticed lately that if you book Monday evenings, it seems to be about $10 - $20 less than the rest of the week. Look at the seats available on the flight you want. If they are sunning low, you might not get a better deal waiting too long. Good luck

goofy4tink · May 3, 2015

I booked my Nov 28 flight from Boston to LAX months ago. Also booked my Dec 2 flight from LAX to MCO months ago. I knew about what I was willing to pay, so rather than wait and obsess about it, and possibly have to pay even more, I booked as soon as the windows opened.
I have seldom seen flights go down enough to warrant my waiting until much closer to my travel dates. I have never, ever had any luck with those 'magic numbers'. I really don't think that's the case anymore. Airlines are flying fewer planes, which are now almost completely full vs more planes with fewer filled seats as in the past.

sleepymouse · May 3, 2015

You could download the Kayak app and set up a price alert for the entire month of December. Though you probably cannot be that flexible, it will at least help to determine the lowest price possible around your travel dates. You will have to monitor Southwest flights also since Kayak does not include them.

gdrj · May 3, 2015

IMO it has gotten much harder to predict. With consolidations, fewer carriers and flights flying at 80 to 90% occupancy of not more it is harder to find value. I have started flying on Thursdays or returning on Mondays to get better pricing and have also booked connecting flights vs direct to save significant money. In my area DCA/BWI Southwest (without Airtran competition) never seems to have great pricing to Orlando.

itrek · May 4, 2015

I fly twice a year in December from Michigan (DTW or FNT) to SNA. Adding luggage into the cost, Southwest (free luggage) has almost always been the least expensive for the past 3 years unless you are flying right before or after a holiday day. Fortunately you are traveling in a good week for prices.

My advice, is if the Southwest price looks close to the other airlines, go ahead and book it once they release their flights for December. If the price drops for Southwest after you book you can just re-book Southwest for the credit. I re-booked my early December flight last year 3 times on Southwest as they lowered their prices. If another airline come up with a substantially better price you could cancel your Southwest flight, book the other airline, and take the Southwest credit as long as your're sure you would use that credit within a year when it expires. This of course depends on which airports you can fly out of because the markets and competition dictate the prices of the airfare.

I do know that in Michigan for the past 3 years, other airlines (Delta, AA) usually start showing better prices a few weeks after Southwest releases their fares to SNA although lately there seems to be no rhyme or reason to when they raise or lower prices. It used to be that on the first day Southwest released prices they were are their lowest. That is not always true any more, at least for FNT and DTW so keep your eye on the prices even after you book.

a742246 · May 4, 2015

FYI Southwest will open their fares for Dec on 5/14/15 as of last week.

keishashadow · May 4, 2015

lvdis said:
I'm planning a trip to Disneyland in early December and trying to decide when to purchase airfare. I've been watching flights for a while now to try and determine the best dates and fares. I know we are still pretty early for that time frame, but I've found a set of dates that is cheapest at this point from a small airport that is near us in the midwest to SNA (which I would prefer over LAX). The cost hasn't changed since I've been checking for almost a month now. It is currently $343 roundtrip per person. Not terrible, but I'm used to getting lower prices when we fly other places!

My question is, should I go ahead and buy at that price or is it likely to go down over the next few months? The dates for this rate are 12/5 - 12/9/2015. Flight times going are 6am - 11:35am, coming home are 1:36pm - 10:10pm both with a layover in Chicago. I can live with the times as long as they don't change significantly. This is a United flight.

I'm not sure whether to wait for Southwest to release flights for those dates and see what their cost is, but then we'd be flying out of a bigger airport which is 2 hours away from home and possibly needing to fly into LAX.

Any opinions? Thanks!

I prefer SWA and have use it to go to DL. Have flown thru SNA & LAX (& LAS, more about that later). We haven't had a direct option for some time out of PIT.

I try to avoid flying thru MDW, have had repeated issues with delayed flights, etc. for some reason. Unless you don't have a plane change, make sure to allow enough time between connections. I always try to make sure there is a later flight out to my final destination. imo ATL is more efficient.

We always toss stopping in LAS one way on our journey for an overnight...or two lol. Flights from my market are much cheaper to LAS, several NS options, and it's a very quick & cheap flight to SNA/LAS/BUR, not sure re ONT.

Suggest asking on DL board, thinking early Dec would be slow time there. Our SWA Oct flights started out higher on the release date & have now dropped $50 pp on one leg.

Good luck

CalDisneyMomof2 · May 4, 2015

Make sure to check ONT and LGB too. It doesn't hurt to plug in all the local airports. Those two airports are closer than LAX.

lvdis · May 14, 2015

lvdis said:
No it doesn't have non-stop into SNA, that's the only downside.

Turns out I was wrong! There is a non-stop option into SNA from the airport that is 2 hours from home. The fares were released this morning and I got really good flights (times and price)! They were $119 each way ($238 rt), so for the 3 of us flying 12/5 - 12/10 it was only $714! Yay! So excited!

When to buy airfare?

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