Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[DizneyBratu16]

I received an email also, but for September. The crowds are up for then too.
Of course at this point is all too late to do anything. Our ADRs & FPs are booked & our room is paid for. Not that I would change my dates, but I might have picked different parks on different days.

If it is in your budget then maybe upgrade to park hoppers or change FP or maybe even ADR's if possible? **kinda new here and it is my first trip to DW this year in 15 years so I may be offering bad advice

 

[Nancyg56]

I just checked my email, and YIKES! I will say that I have no idea how they made the changes, but based on my December trip last year, the dates/days were about the same, at least MK is going to be wicked crowded on non party days. Last year Saturday in the MK was shoulder to shoulder and that was from early afternoon to close. DHS was as well, but I had attributed that to the end of the Lights. I guess not.

 

[Chucky!]

My dates changed as well in April next year, it is a modelling change and more about what they call particular numbers rather than wait times, and I think it is reasonably across the board, but most in holiday periods, spring break times etc

But it is really all about expectations - the number of people in the park doesn't change because touring plans changed their numbers, it is about what you expect crowds to be.

I'd rather expect the crowds were busier, and prepare for that and find they are as busy or less busy than expected, much better than expecting a quieter day and finding it to be much busier than expected

 

[Chucky!]

They other thing they mentioned was that even though crowds are generally down a little, hence they had slightly lower crowd predictions, they are finding wait times aren't dropping as Disney is potentially using less staff etc. given they generate the their number from wait times, it explains why things went up

 

[MaryLovesPoohBear]

Apparently the change in algorithm or whatever was from Aug 1 on.

I figured it was from all of the free dining.

If it is simply a change in the algorithm, then it isn't any different then what they were expecting. It seems that their numbers were still showing an empty park. And we know that isn't something that happens anymore. These changes show that.

 

[dreiwhit]

Apparently the change in algorithm or whatever was from Aug 1 on.

I would be curious to see the results from the new algorithm applied to past weeks when people were there. Maybe something to compare to?

 

[twoolle]

Don't be too concerned. I went that same week last year and the TP crowd calendar jumped just the same. It was really no big deal, even with specia events like the opening of Star Wars Launch Pad and the return of the three caballeros. Most wait times were 10-15 minutes, with many being walk ons.

How did the crowds feel to you last year? Not too concerned about wait times, but the congestion in the parks is what gets to me the most! Going the week AFTER Thanksgiving this year.

 

[Disneymom1126]

I take their predictions with a grain of salt as sometimes they go against common sense. I got a similar email for our October trip...they have the first Saturday we are there at a "9," but then out of the four parks they have the lowest crowd predicted for Epcot (crowd level 6)...on a Saturday in the middle of Food and Wine Festival. While MK is really busy on Saturdays while the parties are going on and Animal Kingdom has EMH's that day...they still have Hollywood Studios as the second busiest park for the day...

 

[Rich M]

In all fairness wouldn't it be in TP best interest to push the levels up and be wrong then have them down and be wrong? Most people will be very happy with them being wrong when they said it was high. Its like a weather man predicting rain that never comes.

 

[ELSA711]

Do I need to log into TP and hit the evaluate button again to refresh or is that automatic?

 

[MissErikaRae]

I got the same email for my September days 24- October 1 of course the emails comes the day after I booked my Fastpasses- I could have rearranged my park dates! The Sunday we are are going to DHS went from a 2 to a 7!!

 

[Praying Colonel]

From the article, a point which many had raised in other threads:

In general, we have seen an increase in wait times even with Disney saying that attendance is down. We could be wrong, but our suspicion is that staff cuts and reduced ride capacity are the explanation of the higher wait times. We have every reason to think that this will continue for the foreseeable future.

 

[SBWB48]

I take their predictions with a grain of salt as sometimes they go against common sense. I got a similar email for our October trip...they have the first Saturday we are there at a "9," but then out of the four parks they have the lowest crowd predicted for Epcot (crowd level 6)...on a Saturday in the middle of Food and Wine Festival. While MK is really busy on Saturdays while the parties are going on and Animal Kingdom has EMH's that day...they still have Hollywood Studios as the second busiest park for the day...

Agreed, I noticed for our late September trip previously that they had Epcot as a "4" day (least busy park of the day, even lower than AK, although I get AK has AM EMH) on a Saturday during F&W, which seems to go against the logic of most that advise you to avoid Saturdays during F&W in Epcot if at all possible. While I understand, most of the crowd level rating is attributed to wait times and F&W being busy may not translate to wait times being higher, but seems to be the case more so than not that people at F&W will go on tier 1 rides, so Epcot being the "least busy park" is questionable. Likewise, where most crowd calendars have predicted July being highest crowd/peak season, all the reports recently seem to suggest July is the new September/December. Take it all (i.e. crowd calendars) with a grain of salt...

 

[SBWB48]

I got the same email for my September days 24- October 1 of course the emails comes the day after I booked my Fastpasses- I could have rearranged my park dates! The Sunday we are are going to DHS went from a 2 to a 7!!

We are going to same dates (well, we arrive just a day before), but I can't get to my e-mail from work. Are there other days that week where it spiked like that? We were planning on using that Sunday as our USO day, so unaffected, but wondering if I need to move a FP or two as well...

 

[FlipHipster]

From the article, a point which many had raised in other threads:

In general, we have seen an increase in wait times even with Disney saying that attendance is down. We could be wrong, but our suspicion is that staff cuts and reduced ride capacity are the explanation of the higher wait times. We have every reason to think that this will continue for the foreseeable future.

This, most of it anyway. 1st week of Dec or week before TG have been our WDW weeks since 2007ish and they are usually awesome crowd wise. I haven't noticed crowds getting worse year over year, more likely the opposite. 2014 1st week of Dec. was one of the least crowded we have seen. However wait times, especially for the top tier rides have gone up dramatically which is the main reason we skipped last year. Not really following the "reduced staff cuts" explanation. Our experience was that the longer waits were mainly due to so many people using FP+ which has a heavy impact on SB times. Makes perfect sense if their models are based off wait times and not actual crowd levels. I have a hard time believing that week has "9" days crowd wise, but wait times, absolutely. We had Soarin' waits that exceeded 80 mins 1 hour after opening while The Land was completely empty like a ghost town. Never, ever saw that in the past. Same type of scenario at DHS, however MK wasn't bad except for 7DMT and A&E when that was a thing.

 

[anneboleyn]

I got an email for my September trip. I was mentally preparing for large crowds due to all the people I see on here and other other sites going that month, and it looks like that is exactly what I am going to get lol. Hopefully September park hours are lengthened a bit, because crowds + September heat + short hours = lots of cranky people.

 

[Delirium]

Well.......if there is that much of a difference because they 'recalibrated' their system, that means they were either very, very wrong beforehand, or are very, very wrong afterwards. Either way, it kind of makes you question the value of what they provide, doesn't it?

 

[CharleneR]

I got the same email this morning as well and we are leaving on August 13th. Not too much of a change on crowd levels, the worse was a 5-8 change at HS on Monday the 15th which is when we have planned to go there. At this point there isn't much I can do about it now.

 

[Mikie]

Well.......if there is that much of a difference because they 'recalibrated' their system, that means they were either very, very wrong beforehand, or are very, very wrong afterwards. Either way, it kind of makes you question the value of what they provide, doesn't it?

Their blog explains the change and it makes sense. I have noticed what seems like more people complaining that TouringPlans crowd predictions in the last year or so seemed "worse" than in the past. They last re-calibrated in 2013. I would imagine that they get gradually more and more "off" until they decide its necessary to re-calibrate. Therefore, the "worst" or most inaccurate numbers occur in the months right before they realign. They explained that this shift basically amounts to about a 5-10 min difference on headliners and less for less popular rides. I.E. the normalize their numbers so a 5-6 crowd level day is about "average" crowds. What constitutes "average" and the wait times you experience on those days changes over time as the number or variety of attractions changes as well as attendance number trends changing. The recalibration means that a wait time of 65 minutes on Splash constituted a "10" day in 2016, but now it will take a 70 minute wait to be called a "10" in 2017.

As a user of Touring Plans, it is important to know what system they use to assign a crowd level and how that relates to surrounding weeks/months/years. Just like it's important to know that EasyWDW or other calendars use a more subjective "crowd feel" (how the walkways and restaurants feel) in addition to hard ride time data.

 

[MissErikaRae]

We are going to same dates (well, we arrive just a day before), but I can't get to my e-mail from work. Are there other days that week where it spiked like that? We were planning on using that Sunday as our USO day, so unaffected, but wondering if I need to move a FP or two as well...

Pretty much that entire week went up. Only a few days are below a 4. They average a 5-7 for all parks during that time. Definitely not the 2-3 I was seeing before.