Can someone talk me OUT of purchasing a DVC membership???

[6inTexas]

My family and I just got back from a fantastic vacation at WDW and since we stayed in a 2 bedroom villa at OKW for approx. $2,900 for a week (that was with 40% off--my brother has a connection who was able to give us a discount), I decided to do some research into owning DVC points to see if it would make sense for our family. We have 4 children, ages 3, 6, 9 and 11 and they had never been to Disney before; it would be an understatement to say that they were blown away! I was too!!!! My husband and I grew up in Orlando and of course, Disney had no attraction for us as we got older and moved away, but wow a lot has changed in the 20 years since we've last been there. It was all very familiar but a lot more amazing than what I remember... I couldn't believe Downtown Disney!

Anyway, my children have already planned that they want to go back in 2016, 2018 and 2019 (we can't go in 2017 because my husband won't have enough time off). As my older son remarked, "How could we go anywhere else?". I totally agreed with him. We all had a blast from the 3 year old on up.

So since we already know that we'd like to go back 3 more times in rapid succession, I decided to run the numbers and based on what I have, owning DVC points SORT OF makes sense. I say "sort of" because the numbers weren't bad (not a huge win for DVC but I can definitely see how it makes sense for long term usage), but it's the commitment to a Disney vacation that's the issue and I'm trying to get more clarity on that.

I compared purchasing 220 points for a 2 bedroom villa at OKW to paying cash each year for the same through renting points at David's (both the rental cost at David's and the 40% off rack rate discount that I got end up being about the same, and I can't always assume I'll get that 40% off). By year 8, we will start to see a savings over what we're paying but based on my numbers, those savings aren't huge. For instance, in year 8 of owning the DVC we will have spent $25,984 total for our DVC ownership (this is assuming a 3.5% increase in annual fees). If we pay cash and assume a 3.5% increase each year in room rates, then on our 8th visit to WDW we will have spent $27,499. In year 9 of owning our DVC we will have spent $27,588; if we paid cash as free people we would have spent $31,499. Here are my questions:

1. Is that $1,500 savings after 8 visits or $4,000 after 9 visits really a savings when it comes with the cost of inflexibility and uncertainty with where life will take you? Maybe looked at differently, for just $5,500 you can vacation wherever you want (or not at all) for the next 9 years! Is it a big savings for a vacation or a small price to pay for freedom?

2. Are there people out there who totally regret it? I'm assuming there are many of those of who do because they're the ones selling their points on the resale market I've been looking at!

3. What about selling if we decide it's not for us? I know Disney has ROFR but will they exercise that option as much as contracts get closer to the exp. date? For instance, if we purchase an OKW contract that expires in 2042 and we decide to sell in 10 years because it doesn't suit us anymore...we're selling a contract that only has 16 years left on it. Do you think there will be any buyers for that? Should we assume we're in it for the long haul after 10 years and our only option would be to recoup annual fees by renting out points? Maybe that's just a guessing game since there's no history to refer back to.

Anyway, I'm looking for opinions to help me gain some clarity. I'm so intrigued by the idea but I feel like I haven't been convinced that it's a great idea or that it's a terrible idea. I'm not looking for platitudes like "It worked for us, but it may not work for everyone." I need real opinions! Did you crunch the numbers and wonder if you were really going to love it after 10 years and it turns out you did? I'm using 10 years as my base number because by that time my youngest will be 13 and my oldest will be 21...will we still want a Disney vacation? What about people who went for it and were totally surprised at the use they got out of it? Will it be great to own to give as a gift to our adult children when they want to take their children or we take the grandchildren...should I really be thinking that far out??? I also don't agree with comparing the money we'd spend on a DVC to what we could make if we invested the money because that argument assumes that no vacations will be taken, DVC or otherwise so to me it's just not a logical argument to make. I'm basing my calculations on the fact that money will be spent each year on a family vacation...the big question is: Should it be at a DVC resort????

 

[Dawn68PA]

My BF and I just bought in last year and our kids are adults and we have 5 grandkids. We rented points 3 times and it clicked that yeah, we wanted this. We looked at it as paying for 30 years of vacations in advance. A bargain for what it would cost to pay cash. We love Florida and Disney and know for our three, 1-week, vacations a year it's the only place we want to go. Most of the time it will be just the two of us on a trip. But we have the flexibility to bring any of our family at any time. Money is tight for some of them and we are able to provide them a place to stay on our points, free to them. Combined with some of the perks you get for being members, it made sense for us. The BF loves all the golf perks!

I'm not positive that this is what you were looking for information wise. Hope it helps!

 

[crisi]

1. Yeah, its inflexible. Its great if you've decided the Disney lifestyle is for you. But as teens my kids would rather be in cities (my daughter, London, Washington, New York are her favorite places) or the beach (my son likes Mexico and Hawaii). DVC isn't a good trading timeshare. And cancellation policies and using your points is less flexible than cash.

2. Yes. There are people who can't really afford it and regret it for that reason. Or buy points and then figure out that they wanted to fit in other vacations. Or people whose lives change. I don't think most people sell because they regret it, I suspect most people sell when they get their value out and it isn't as needed/.

3. You can sell. If you'd bought in 2007 and sold in 2010 or 2011, you'd have likely sold for significantly less than you bought it for. Economy crashes and people sold more timeshares than they bought, the supply demand price curve showed that.

Other thoughts,

Disney is an expensive vacation. Kids become Disney adults fast (you have one and will have two before your next trip), and tickets become a MAJOR cost. When you have four to save for college for and your own retirement to worry about, regular Disney trips can be a stretch.

Offsite you can rent timeshares for much cheaper than onsite. You lose the buses and end up driving - which needs to be factored in, but Orlando is an overbuilt timeshare market and there are lots of nice timeshares and pool homes for rent. It also makes it easier to go to Universal, which is more attractive to a lot of teens than Disney. If you are driving rather than flying and don't need to rent a car, it can make a big difference in cost.

Disney gets more expensive each year. We bought before my two kids were in school - they are both high schoolers now. When we started taking them park tickets were less than half what they are now - our income hasn't doubled, but the cost to go to Disney, even with DVC has.

Renting points gives you flexibility that owning lacks, lets you skip trips, doesn't involve a commitment in either your financial capital or your vacation time, and in the end isn't much more expensive than owning.

 

[disneynutz]

Honestly owning DVC isn't what it used to be IMO. Recent decisions by management and continuing website, account, and long telephone hold times are a negative. In addition prices are increasing and so are the dues. BLT has had a couple of 6% increases.

If the cost savings is only what you reported, I would rent for the flexibility.

Another word of advice, spend some time at other DVC resorts before you buy and continue to research the DVC threads here on the DIS.

Bill

 

[CKCruising]

I think you have done the financial research. You aren't planning to buy direct, so the Disney financing (rip off) isn't an issue.

The biggest complaints are (1) you have to book 6-11 months in advance (Probably 2-3 at OKW) (2) you have to pay for your park tickets (Which you have already figured out) (3) No free dining (You already figured this out) (4) It's hard to trade into certain resorts at certain times (If you are happy with OKW then you will be ok). You say you just got back. If you went in January, you should have no problems staying at most places. If you were there over Christmas, it will be a bit tougher to trade. (5) There is no value in trading it out (You look like you are staying onsite at a DVC property so that isn't an issue) (6) Some people are not comfortable renting points. You are somewhat responsible for your renters even though you don't know them. (7) You are paying for MFs every year. These can be thought of as pre-paying your hotel room in January, but for those that don't plan as well, they can sneak up on you.

Note that there are two expiry dates for OKW 2042 and 2057. It is really unknown what is going to happen to the 2042 contracts when they expire. The resale value in 10 years is an unknown but as you can see a value in a 10 year window, there is still that option for someone else with 16 years left. Actually, there might not be a drop in value as someone might see only committing to 16 years as a benefit. My gut feeling (and mine only) is that you should be safe to think you will recoup 50% of what you paid in 10 years (assuming you don't overpay now )

I have not written this to try to talk you out of anything or into anything, just providing the facts I can. You will find most people in this forum like (or love) their DVC and those selling did so for financial reasons (It's nice to say you will take annual vacations for the next 10 years, but life changes).

 

[sleepydog25]

So since we already know that we'd like to go back 3 more times in rapid succession, I decided to run the numbers and based on what I have, owning DVC points SORT OF makes sense. I say "sort of" because the numbers weren't bad (not a huge win for DVC but I can definitely see how it makes sense for long term usage), but it's the commitment to a Disney vacation that's the issue and I'm trying to get more clarity on that.


1. Is that $1,500 savings after 8 visits or $4,000 after 9 visits really a savings when it comes with the cost of inflexibility and uncertainty with where life will take you? Maybe looked at differently, for just $5,500 you can vacation wherever you want (or not at all) for the next 9 years! Is it a big savings for a vacation or a small price to pay for freedom?

2. Are there people out there who totally regret it?

3. What about selling if we decide it's not for us? I know Disney has ROFR but will they exercise that option as much as contracts get closer to the exp. date? For instance, if we purchase an OKW contract that expires in 2042 and we decide to sell in 10 years because it doesn't suit us anymore...we're selling a contract that only has 16 years left on it. Do you think there will be any buyers for that? Should we assume we're in it for the long haul after 10 years and our only option would be to recoup annual fees by renting out points? Maybe that's just a guessing game since there's no history to refer back to.

Anyway, I'm looking for opinions to help me gain some clarity. I'm so intrigued by the idea but I feel like I haven't been convinced that it's a great idea or that it's a terrible idea. I'm not looking for platitudes like "It worked for us, but it may not work for everyone." I need real opinions! Did you crunch the numbers and wonder if you were really going to love it after 10 years and it turns out you did? I'm using 10 years as my base number because by that time my youngest will be 13 and my oldest will be 21...will we still want a Disney vacation? What about people who went for it and were totally surprised at the use they got out of it? Will it be great to own to give as a gift to our adult children when they want to take their children or we take the grandchildren...should I really be thinking that far out??? I also don't agree with comparing the money we'd spend on a DVC to what we could make if we invested the money because that argument assumes that no vacations will be taken, DVC or otherwise so to me it's just not a logical argument to make. I'm basing my calculations on the fact that money will be spent each year on a family vacation...the big question is: Should it be at a DVC resort????

You ask very salient questions, and you're right to express some skepticism over purchasing DVC. I've highlighted some of the questions I intend to answer by giving you my own particular opinion. In sharing my own story, perhaps it will help you in your decision. First, you hit upon the best word to describe buying into DVC: commitment. Once you buy, you are committed to either taking vacations, renting out your points, or should you so decide, selling your contract. As you wisely imply, selling a contract whose expiration is 2042 could be problematic (though the strong possibility exists that DVC will figure a way to extend those resorts' contracts). My wife and I only have one child remaining who gets a kick out of visiting Disney, and she'll turn 15 this summer so her days of going on a family vacation there are numbered. However, Disney has great appeal to me and DW. It holds emotionally resonant memories that we don't want to let go, memories that helped shape our relationship in immeasurable ways. Thus, when we bought into DVC, we did so knowing that the majority of our visits would be sans kids. . .and that's fine as we look forward to sharing the World together, hand-in-hand. My first question to you then is, will you look forward to visiting the World without your kids years downstream? If the answer is "yes," then DVC might work for you. If "no," then I'd say don't buy.

You also ask, are there people who regret buying into DVC? Yes. You can find them on these forums, in fact. However, DVC ownership includes such a vast number, of course you'll get people who regret taking the plunge. Some didn't realize the commitment, some the cost, some the lack of perks and amenities, and some didn't expect life to change drastically due to job loss, death, divorce, et. al. Generally speaking, though, you will find most people not only enjoy DVC ownership but embrace it and can't imagine vacationing any other way. If you have taken the time to think of where you might be in years to come and think DVC will still work for you, go for it. If you're unsure now, then those doubts will likely only multiply as time passes. You ask, "should I really be thinking that far out?" Yes! Even if the contract you were to purchase extends only to 2042, that's nearly 30 more years. The costs will continue once the contract is paid off (maintenance fees will grow as you sagely point out), but if you vacation there often enough and if you think grandkids will want to go, as well (and they will), then the costs are offset in the end. At the very least, you'll have an at least break even experience. As others might claim (and have on countless other threads), don't go into a contract thinking you can recoup your costs if you sell. While some have, I'd anecdotally say most do not.

Finally, some things can't be measured strictly in terms of dollars. We have created amazing memories using our DVC membership (yes, one can make special times without buying DVC, but that's not what's being argued), including our wedding at the Wilderness Lodge two years ago. We've surprised family members with trips, and we've managed to visit several DVC resorts along the way where we discover something unique and inviting about each one. We've had the flexibility to stay a night here, another night over there, and added nights spontaneously. For us, DVC has worked very well, and it will continue to do so for as long as we can foresee. Thus, my advice--my "real opinion"--is that if you think your family will get another several years out of visiting WDW, and if you believe that after you hit the empty nest phase the World (and above average accommodations) will still hold appeal, then I vote "yes" for buying into DVC. Otherwise, the possible impediments you mention now might very well become albatrosses in years to come. Hope this helps.

 

[chalee94]

1. Is that $1,500 savings after 8 visits or $4,000 after 9 visits really a savings when it comes with the cost of inflexibility and uncertainty with where life will take you? Maybe looked at differently, for just $5,500 you can vacation wherever you want (or not at all) for the next 9 years! Is it a big savings for a vacation or a small price to pay for freedom?

i'm unclear. if you buy DVC and sell it at the end of that 9-10 year period, how much are you calculating that you will get back on the sale?

(it's very conservative to assume zero, but you will likely be able to sell for some amount.)

DVC is not extremely flexible, but it is more flexible than renting from david or a DVC owner (edited to add: if you need to cancel). you can still rent your pts through david if you buy and decide not to use them to go to disney.

2. Are there people out there who totally regret it? I'm assuming there are many of those of who do because they're the ones selling their points on the resale market I've been looking at!

most sellers probably do so because of life events like divorce or job loss, or because they have moved on to other vacation preferences (europe or whatever).

there are some who totally regret it, who find that DVC doesn't work well for them (maybe they book last-minute and have trouble finding availability for several years straight) but if you do your homework, your expectations will be reasonable (and OKW is a larger resort that is generally easier to book.)

3. What about selling if we decide it's not for us? I know Disney has ROFR but will they exercise that option as much as contracts get closer to the exp. date? For instance, if we purchase an OKW contract that expires in 2042 and we decide to sell in 10 years because it doesn't suit us anymore...we're selling a contract that only has 16 years left on it. Do you think there will be any buyers for that? Should we assume we're in it for the long haul after 10 years and our only option would be to recoup annual fees by renting out points? Maybe that's just a guessing game since there's no history to refer back to.

there are risks.

but during the great recession, DVC dropped ROFR almost entirely for a couple of years and people still found buyers (if at lower prices).

i believe DVC uses ROFR to pick up those rare deals at fire-sale prices and to annoy resale buyers so that they pay extra to buy direct instead. the notion that DVC is basically worthless without ROFR to prop up prices is unsubstantiated. as demand falls in an economic crisis, DVC will get out of the market before most individuals realize how bad things are - they would not want to get stuck with inventory they will have trouble selling. but most of what i have seen in the last 10 years tells me that DVC prices are set primarily by supply and demand...DVC's ROFR activity doesn't have that much (if any) of a real effect on prices.

i doubt you'll have trouble selling for *something*, but prices could drop significantly as expiration gets closer.

you might consider buying at SSR (longer expiration to 2054) and planning to use the pts at OKW at the 7 month window (which will rarely be an issue since OKW is a larger resort).

Will it be great to own to give as a gift to our adult children when they want to take their children or we take the grandchildren...should I really be thinking that far out??? I also don't agree with comparing the money we'd spend on a DVC to what we could make if we invested the money because that argument assumes that no vacations will be taken, DVC or otherwise so to me it's just not a logical argument to make. I'm basing my calculations on the fact that money will be spent each year on a family vacation...the big question is: Should it be at a DVC resort????

if you are committed to vacationing at wdw every year or every other year, and you are committed to paying extra to stay onsite (at least a the moderate hotel level), then DVC probably makes sense.

i would not worry about leaving it to your children. they might want it and they might not. it will be a while before they would want the responsibility for the annual dues in any event.

definitely take a little time to do some more research to see how DVC works and what issues current owners are having...

 

[richmo]

OK, I'm coming from the "didn't buy DVC" (so far), so take this for what its worth.

First, I'm glad you had such a great vacation. Since you "just" got back, I'd encourage you to let a little time to pass, just to get over the high from the trip. Its easy to make an impulsive decision when a great trip is so fresh in your memory.

A few things I'd like you to consider:
- There are six of you and your kids are relatively young. Since you're planning this far out, fast forward four or five years from now. Your kids will be 8, 11, 14 and 16. Is even a two bedroom going to cut it? I don't know the girl/boy distribution in your family, but that gets more important as the kids get older. As kids get older, we've found that the space required increases. We only have two kids (now young adults), but the motel room that easily kept us when they were under 10 would be ridiculous in their teen years. And you have four.
- Again related to the kids: they're so enthusiastic about WDW now. I hope they keep that enthusiasm. But, as they get older, activities and interests change and there's really no way to predict where their interests lie. I happen to work with someone that bought DVC several years ago and even bought an additional contract. They went with their three kids a few times a year, every year. That was good for awhile, but then one of the boys played varsity sports at school, the girl got involved with the band and the other got a little burned out on all the trips. Scheduling got to be difficult, especially trying to book something 11 months out. Three trips a year went down to one and they've wound up renting points out or giving to friends quite a bit. They're almost thru this phase, so they're hoping for some adult only trips soon. I'm not saying don't buy, but just consider that your family schedule and interests are likely to change as time goes on.
- A two bedroom (or perhaps larger) contract is going to be big. What we've done the past few years is rented either a house, condo or townhouse (Windsor Hills as an example). It has given us a chance to really spread out (3 or 4 bedrooms, sometimes a private pool, kitchen, etc.). Yes, you're out of the Disney bubble and responsible for your own transportation, but just having that space for a week (or even two) really made it worth it for us.

I don't want the above to talk you out of DVC, but just keep these things in mind...

 

[bellablue2]

if you have the cash (no financing), go for it. start small, maybe with a resale (only) okw or ssr or akv contract, e.g., 150 points, search for a "loaded" contract that has at least one year's points available that the seller has paid the mf's on to give you a jump start on your vacation plans. it's really hard to lose your initial investment in a few years...since the great recession prices have gone up on average. this is not a life/death decision and you do not have to research it ad nauseum to get a nice deal. dvc will certainly will save you money in the short run and may change your life in the long run

go small, resale...don't think you can go too far wrong. good luck.

 

[CKCruising]

...First, I'm glad you had such a great vacation. Since you "just" got back, I'd encourage you to let a little time to pass, just to get over the high from the trip. Its easy to make an impulsive decision when a great trip is so fresh in your memory....

Well said. There is a reason DVC sales are in every park/resort

 

[LSchrow]

Did you crunch the numbers and wonder if you were really going to love it after 10 years and it turns out you did? I'm using 10 years as my base number because by that time my youngest will be 13 and my oldest will be 21...will we still want a Disney vacation? What about people who went for it and were totally surprised at the use they got out of it? Will it be great to own to give as a gift to our adult children when they want to take their children or we take the grandchildren...should I really be thinking that far out??? I also don't agree with comparing the money we'd spend on a DVC to what we could make if we invested the money because that argument assumes that no vacations will be taken, DVC or otherwise so to me it's just not a logical argument to make. I'm basing my calculations on the fact that money will be spent each year on a family vacation...the big question is: Should it be at a DVC resort????

your other questions were well covered.
we originally bought in 1999, and have found the flexibility of DVC one of the most important parts.
we used to stay every late august in a BWV 1bdrm (family of 4 - 1 week). fast forward 16 years: now 30yo DD & i go every may for the F&GF, staying in a bw view studio for 11-14 days, and DH & i meet up with friends every October for the F&WF, BW view studio (yup, we found our happy place) for another 11-14 days. our villa sizes & times of year have greatly changed since 1999 - and DVC's point (vs fixed week/unit) system have accommodated our changing travel. a very few times, we have "rented" some of our points, & made a small profit; we've also gifted a few wonderful vacations for loved ones.
so yes, 19 years later, & we still enjoy our DVC points, staying longer, relaxing, enjoying the resort more with the parks just an added attraction.
btw, we just added more BWV points, with DD on this one .

 

[CMOORE185]

Disney ain't what it use to be. Parks are too crowded, rooms can be run down, food has gone down hill, it is getting more expensive, and DVC has lost a lot of it's magic. Oh and it seems to rain too much at Disney World now. Hey, you asked to be talked out of it.

Seriously though, it will lose some of its magic over the years. I love the options outside of Disney World as we seem to use them more then we use to.

 

[nalajms]

With DVC you have to be a planner, 11m ahead, work out all your options for 7m switch, estimate airfare costs and which days would be cheaper, and make sure you have the points to do what you want to do... lots of planning.

If you're like that already and your travel times are flexible, you can find just as good of a deal through Orbitz. I had a reservation last summer for SSR 2bedroom. Orbitz had 20% off the Disney discounted rate. You can also rent last minute points at around $8 per point. Most of the availability will be OKW or SSR, sometimes AKV. If you read on the boards, many people are trying to book a near-park resort. If you don't mind staying at one of those resorts, I'd wait for sales rather than commit to a DVC purchase.

 

[a742246]

1.

Offsite you can rent timeshares for much cheaper than onsite. You lose the buses and end up driving - which needs to be factored in, but Orlando is an overbuilt timeshare market and there are lots of nice timeshares and pool homes for rent. It also makes it easier to go to Universal, which is more attractive to a lot of teens than Disney. If you are driving rather than flying and don't need to rent a car, it can make a big difference in cost.

As Crisi said Orlando is an overbuilt timeshare market with lots of nice timeshares some of them you can get for $1. For your next trip maybe you should rent an offsite timeshare from someone (do a lot of research of this). A good timeshare advice website presides disboards is www.tugbbs.com. My advice is to read up on the timeshare market spend about 6 months digesting everything and then re evaluate DVC.

 

[6inTexas]

Thank you so much to everyone who responded! I read all of the responses (some of them twice) and considered everything from "just go for it" to "take a breather and wait". All of the info you provided was exactly what I was looking for- personal experiences and opinions. Reading those personal experiences helped me realize a few things about our trip that I hadn't considered.

-One: Although the two bedroom was fantastic, my kids are young and as one poster pointed out, will it work when they're older and physically bigger? I had completely forgotten to take into account that my two girls (ages 3 and 6) slept with me in the king, the two boys (ages 9 and 11) slept in the 2nd bedroom and my husband slept on the pull out! (We needed to do that so the boys could sleep while we stayed up in the main living area). It totally worked and we were just so excited to be there and exhausted by the end of the day that it didn't matter where everyone slept. But I doubt my girls and I will want to share a bed when they're 11 and 14!
-Two: There is a real possibility that my kids will outgrow going to WDW. I'm glad one poster included her story about how her kids grew to appreciate cities more than WDW- that really resonated because that's exactly what happened to me as I became an adult which is why it's been over 20 years since I've been back! And in fact, just yesterday I announced that we're going to have a family day at the zoo this weekend to which my son responded, "NOOOOO, I hate the zoo! I'm staying home!". I recognize that there are no roller coasters at the zoo and it's a far cry from WDW, but still. He's starting to assert himself as an adolescent, and could he one day have the same visceral reaction to WDW?
-Three: Staying at Old Key West may be no different from staying off site for half the price either in another villa like Sheraton Vistana or even a house (thank you to the poster who mentioned Windsor Hills- I couldn't believe that we could get a house with a game room and private pool for half the price of a 2 bedroom at Old Key West!!!). Although I LOVED the bus system, there were times when it wasn't so convenient like when we got to the Magic Kindom 40 minutes after we planned because we had JUST missed the bus and had to wait for the next one. As long as there's driving and waiting involved, we may find that although we lose some magic, staying off site wouldn't be a huge difference as far as convenience. I do feel, however, that there is a difference with staying at the DVCs on the monorail line or a boat ride away like at Wilderness Lodge. There does seem to be a premium to having a room at Bay Lake over someplace else but after thinking about distance, buses and cost, I couldn't see how OKW was a huge win over off site for half the price. Yes I know we could stay at Bay Lake with our OKW points but we'd need more points (more money) for a 2 bedroom there (assuming the 2 bedroom would always work) and of course we couldn't be guaranteed a spot.

Although I love the idea of continuing to vacation at WDW there are just too many maybes that I'd be relying on to justify purchasing the DVC. "Maybe" we'll continue to go and love it year after year even when the kids are older. "Maybe" when they outgrow it they'll have kids of their own and we can take them. "Maybe" we could sell our points and recoup some of our money if we decide we don't want it. "Maybe" we could add more points if we need more room. Though adding more points is a concern because then we'd push our break even point further out, diluting the savings we assumed we'd be achieving. Then there are the "what ifs". "What if" plane tickets become too expensive for all 6 of us to fly to Orlando? And the obvious what-ifs with school, job, life in general.

After mulling over all the possibilities, such as buying less points and banking and borrowing to go just every other year, I realized that I was trying too hard to plan and predict too many things about our lives and what may or may not stay the same or change in the next 10 or more years. If it's meant to be that we'll be able to take a vacation to WDW for the next 10 years then it'll happen whether we own a DVC or not. Likewise, if we're not meant to take a WDW vacation every year or every other year then even owning a DVC isn't a guarantee that we'll be able to go (aside from plane tickets, another poster mentioned park tickets and yes, that's a huge expense...on the trip we just took, our 5 day passes cost as much as our plane tickets).

And I appreciated reading about how one person was able to grow with the DVC points even though needs changed and the kids were older. Based on the amount of years you've owned it looks like you've received the kind of savings one would hope to achieve with owning a DVC so it was certainly a success. I'm sure there are others like you. If I could predict that we'd enjoy going to Disney for all the other events and attractions "sans kids" as another poster mentioned, then it would make sense for us too; but my husband and I definitely don't see ourselves going to Disney unless we're with our children or future grandchildren.

I'm still intrigued by the whole idea of a pre-paid vacation at WDW. I definitely see how it's not a terrible deal financially assuming you love going to Disney on a regular basis and enjoy knowing that the room is paid for. I also like the convenience of DVC resort hopping to try out different places, making my own reservations and banking and borrowing for flexibility. It probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to just go for it and enjoy it, but I'm too pragmatic about my finances to look past all the what ifs and take the plunge especially after just one family trip. I can see if someone already has a history of vacationing at WDW year after year, then a DVC totally makes sense because then it's not a matter of "what if" there's really going to be a trip to WDW in the future, but rather "when". For those people, a DVC is probably a no-brainer. And if you make it past your break-even point then you will have reached the point where you really are saving money, and that amount grows exponentially each year thereafter. I guess the key is finding that break-even point and then predicting if WDW is where you see yourself at that time. And as other posters mentioned there are many deals to be had outside of Disney. My small savings at my break-even point many years down the road is only a comparison between DVC costs vs. staying at the same property for cash each year. If I compare DVC costs to what we'd pay staying at an offsite property, then it's a no brainer to avoid DVC. There are absolutely no savings in that scenario, and in fact a much higher cost for DVC ownership. We'd have to love staying on Disney property more than we love that 4 bedroom pool home off site with the pool table, air hockey table and playstation...and I don't think we do.

We're planning on staying at Bay Lake in late Jan or early Feb. 2016 so I may see things differently after that trip. If anyone has more to add or an experience to share, I'm still interested. Perhaps this thread can help others who are weighing the pros and cons. Thank you so much for providing all your feedback. It really has helped me gain the clarity I needed.

 

[LSchrow]

6intexas - I wish more people would really, really look at DVC (or for that matter, any large purchase) as you did before buying.
DVC (or again, most large purchases) are not always the best fit for every situation - your research & thought proved that it would likely not be advantageous for your family.
(a small side note: we also travel elsewhere, but WDW is our relaxing vacation....similar to the many who don't live near a beach would consider a beach timeshare).

very well thought out - and thank you posting your reasoning, hopefully it helps someone else

 

[cmrdgrs]

Gosh, so many great answers here! I think your break even point at 7 or 8 years is very realistic. MFs increasing 3.5% IMO is a little low. I'd probably look at 4 or 5%. DH and I bought our DVC in 2006. Up till now, we have taken several trips to DL and WDW several times a year and each trip has been awesome. For us the only way we want to go to Disney is to stay on property and we want 2 bdrms or GVs ideally.

I will share with you that we purchased when or kids were 4 & 5 and now they are 12 & 13. After all the multiple trips to Disney their interest in traveling to WDW and DL is now seriously waning. We loved all our trips, but as a family, we are ready to spend our money other ways and at other non-Disney related resorts. This day will (most likely) come for you too (IMO).

The only other thing to consider is what you will do if you end up not traveling annually to Disney. If you feel comfortable getting in to the rental world (you renting your DVC points), you can easily rent to help offset or pay your MFs, and you can also have extra money to spend in non-Disney ways. So, you are still prepaying for your vacations, and if you don't travel to Disney, you are still able to get cash out of your points to pay for other things. We are currently renting our points and taking that money to spend on a ski vacation over Christmas/NYE in Steamboat this year. We are still coming out "ahead" even after paying our MFs.

If you are OK doing this, and you have the cash to buy into DVC, I would jump in and purchase DVC. But, consider the worst case scenario of not using your DVC.

 

[Pigletpal40]

We purchased VWL in '03. Our oldest was three. Had our second son in '05. We don't regret having DVC one bit, but times do change and every year
dues go up. We started around $650 for 150 pts., now we're over $900. We take trips with extended family every other year and occasionally make one cash trip with AP discounts in between. The trips with grandparents and cousins have been priceless!
My wife's job changed this year and we just sold. We made back all our buying price plus $1500. after 12 years. I don't think it's a bad investment, but you will spend $900. plus on dues every year and another $3000. on tickets and food when you go. We went on our first cruise last year and that was kind of our breaking point with our decision to sell. Both our boys 13 and 8 then said can we do this again? We asked if Disney was still their favorite vacation and the answer was no. We did go this October for one last trip with cousins. Very bittersweet. Like I said, we don't regret one minute of owning, but we were ready to move on.

 

[Brian Noble]

Right now, just back home from a vacation, you are still a little hopped up on pixie dust. DVC has offered you the chance to bottle that magical vacation feeling for decades into the future "at today's prices." It all sounds great!

However, my advice is pretty simple: Unless you are confident that you will be returning to WDW at least ten times over the next 15 years or so, do not buy DVC. It doesn't sound as though, today, you have that confidence. So, you should not pull the trigger.

Lots of things can change over the course of the years. Your kids may outgrow Disney---many don't, but some do. You may also find that as they get older, your vacation time gets very constrained, changing the cost of trips by a lot. For example, between school, sports, band, orchestra, etc., we can only travel for a five-day period at Thanksgiving, a week at Easter, and a four-week window from late June through late July.

There's also a big wide world out there, and WDW is just a part of it. We've had fantastic vacations to Alaska, Rocky Mountain NP, Smoky Mountain NP, Sedona/Grand Canyon, the Outer Banks, and Paris. Over the next year and a half we also have plans to visit Hilton Head and Hawaii. Farther in the future we expect to visit Italy. You can do some of those with DVC, but not very efficiently in most cases.

That said, we've been pleased with our timeshare purchases over the years, and do not regret them. If you can afford to consider it "lost money," you won't regret buying, even if things don't work out as you expect them to today.

 

[icydog]

Right now, just back home from a vacation, you are still a little hopped up on pixie dust. DVC has offered you the chance to bottle that magical vacation feeling for decades into the future "at today's prices." It all sounds great!

However, my advice is pretty simple: Unless you are confident that you will be returning to WDW at least ten times over the next 15 years or so, do not buy DVC. It doesn't sound as though, today, you have that confidence. So, you should not pull the trigger.

Lots of things can change over the course of the years. Your kids may outgrow Disney---many don't, but some do. You may also find that as they get older, your vacation time gets very constrained, changing the cost of trips by a lot. For example, between school, sports, band, orchestra, etc., we can only travel for a five-day period at Thanksgiving, a week at Easter, and a four-week window from late June through late July.

There's also a big wide world out there, and WDW is just a part of it. We've had fantastic vacations to Alaska, Rocky Mountain NP, Smoky Mountain NP, Sedona/Grand Canyon, the Outer Banks, and Paris. Over the next year and a half we also have plans to visit Hilton Head and Hawaii. Farther in the future we expect to visit Italy. You can do some of those with DVC, but not very efficiently in most cases.

That said, we've been pleased with our timeshare purchases over the years, and do not regret them. If you can afford to consider it "lost money," you won't regret buying, even if things don't work out as you expect them to today.

Why Brian, that's the most charitable post I've ever seen you write about DVC. I too own at a lot of other timeshares but Disney alone has held its value. For that reason alone buying a DVC contract can make sense.....but only if you plan on visiting Walt Disney World a LOT. My family and extended family still love the Mouse better than any other vacation. I am, however, bored with Mickey but it's taken me over 30 years to become so apathetic.