Wow, with SSR resales selling for an average $68/point in August, that would be something if it happens.
SSR is by far the largest WDW DVC resort yet remains relatively popular because of its low resale price and annual MF.
Because WDW's Cash Room Only (CRO) are so expensive, there's only so low DVCs can go.
Long-term, DVC membership should continue to retain some value as long as WDW maintains its current pricing structure at the onsite resorts. I'll use an example.
Historically, DVC Maintenance Fees (MF) and CROs from Disney have been increasing by about 3% per annum.
2013 room rates for a CRO at the Beach Club in early July (summer vacation season) were $448/night (including tax). With an annual increase of 3%, this might be $602/night in 2023 or $4214/week. Even with a 30% discount (not guaranteed, especially for the more popular times of the year), this comes out to $2950/week.
2013 MF at SSR were $4.81/point. In 10 years, this might be $6.46/point. It takes 134 points to stay in a BCV Studio for one week in July, or $866/week in 2023 MF. In 10 years, difference between renting and using DVC points might be about $2084 ($2950 $866) per year. (It seems to me SSR members love to boast how they always are able to book elsewhere.
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Lets assume a person wants to commit to a WDW vacation for only 5 years, a pessimistic duration given DVC's current pricing structure, and then just throw away their DVC membership, which is unrealistic. Theoretically, this person would be willing to pay up to $10,420 ($2084/yr X 5 yrs) for a 134-point DVC membership at SSR. Beyond the ancillary benefits of DVC membership, lets assume they need a real financial incentive to purchase a DVC and to take into account other closing costs, so theyd only be willing to pay $8000 for the actual points. At 134 points, this comes out to $60/pt ($8000 / 134) in 2023.
As long as Disney does a competent job of maintaining demand for WDW and doesn't drastically change the way it prices its onsite resorts, there will always be a percentage of the population that will view DVC as a viable economic option.
P.S. Hopefully, I got the math right!