Resale market cooling down?

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by JustTinking, Nov 2, 2013.

  1. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    As you note, deeds represent what was happening in the market about 2 months ago.

    I've been closely following the sales market for a while. Compared to 2 months ago, asking prices are up about 10% at VWL and BCV, flat to down very slightly every place else. However, inventories as a whole are up 50%. Some resort inventories are up more than others but available inventories are up across-the-board at all WDW resorts.

    As with so much, higher inventory typically leads to lower prices.

    We are entering the slow season for real estate and some modest decline is to be expected as fewer shop for vacations this time of year while DVC owners look to sell their memberships before next year's MF are due. Again, inventory should increase, demand decrease.

    However, we can't accurately use what's happening right now to predict one way or the other what's going to happen next spring. It really comes down to how many potential DVC buyers enter the market in 2014.
     
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  3. SFlaDisneyfans

    SFlaDisneyfans Mouseketeer

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  4. luckyman_apd

    luckyman_apd DIS Veteran

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    This....exactly. The market drop and the 2011-2012 prices were a direct result of desperate sellers who couldn't afford to keep them, and a flood of supply. It worked well for me. I watched several contracts come and go and was able to grab one that was absolutely perfect for us at a price of $10 per point less than now ($15 to $20 higher I saw listed recently) and that's IF you could find that UY as it don't see it listed often. After we bought and my brother started to consider it, the prices had jumped beyond his comfort zone. It really is about supply and demand. If there is a big supply and no demand, prices will drop.

    I think the supply dried up as the economy is no longer rock bottom, and demand definitely increased with the addition of VGF. I do agree disney resort rack rates will play a factor as well. Our decision to buy in was definitely a factor of price/value vs moderate resorts. Unless dues start to increase at a rate far above resort price increases i don't see the resale market falling out again. But in the end who really knows. I'm comfortable and happy with my purchase
     
  5. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    I always thought the resale market took off in 2013 right about the time Disney announced 'free tickets' for any direct purchase at BWV. In response, BWV resale prices jumped as Disney quickly sold out of points available directly. Then in March (?), Disney announced an across-the-board direct price increase at all WDW DVCs, which rippled into the secondary market as buyers tried to lock in at old prices. Suddenly, there were waiting lists at many of the resorts and Disney went ROFR crazy to fill those orders, driving prices up further. It was the kind of ROFR activity we hadn't seen in years.

    I'm not sure that VGF played much into this. If anything, it seemed to me this was deferring some purchases; in other words, those waiting to buy in at VGF. This appeared to have been reflected in VGF's first month or two of activity.

    I do think prices were driven down in 2011-12 by other market activity, beyond what was happening in the economy in general.

    SSR (opened 2004), AKV (2008), and BLT (2009) more than doubled the number of DVC rooms available. Timeshares, including DVC, tend to be impulse purchases. By 2011, a lot of those who had bought impulsively at these resorts were having second thoughts and wanted to sell, flooding the resale market with inventory, driving prices down everywhere.

    IMHO, which way prices go in 2014 will depend on how many DVC impulse buyers remain who might be looking to sell in 2014.

    With VGF and the Poly DVC being significantly smaller than SSR, AKV, and BLT, the number of impulse buyers looking to sell should decline over time and, long term, the DVC resale market should see more stability until the next financial crisis.
     
  6. BWV Dreamin

    BWV Dreamin DIS Veteran

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    My predicition...the next price increase for VGF will all but keep resales prices high. Once Poly is announced, resales prices go even higher.
     
  7. moran66

    moran66 Mouseketeer

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    I highly doubt we will see any DVC contracts in the 40$ range other than VB or HHI anytime soon. I mean you might see a few sneak in in the 50s again but not the 40s.
     
  8. Mississippian

    Mississippian DIS Veteran

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    Dean, I haven't posted here in a while, but I don't need to. You always say exactly what I think!
     

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