BWV Analysis: Purchase vs Sale Prices

[crisi]

This I agree.

It can be for some people. Certainly for most people here - we tend to be a pretty darn content group with our purchase.

But I think we do need to be cautious. We only know and can evaluate our own circumstances, and a lot of people look at these analysis to justify something that it is a struggle to afford. Then, at the first financial difficulty, the house of cards falls down around them. And "hey look, if I bought resale in 2009 how much money I'd make if I sold now in 2013" is GREAT justification, in the worst way, for such people.

 

[zippingalong]

The 166 point BWV contract ( purchased at $50 and sold for $62 ) was mine. I wish I'd held it for a bit longer, I would have gotten closer to $80 now.

 

[Chic]

I'm not sure where you are looking for those numbers, but what I see on the ROFR thread is 160 point contracts going for $62-63, and that's only because of the recent bump in prices.

I just looked at SSR listings on the Fidelity website and loaded SSR contracts are advertised from $80 to $130 a point. Not sure what they're actually selling for but this is still a dramatic increase from what I paid back in 2008.

 

[iluvthsgam]

I just looked at SSR listings on the Fidelity website and loaded SSR contracts are advertised from $80 to $130 a point. Not sure what they're actually selling for but this is still a dramatic increase from what I paid back in 2008.

I saw that and posted about it on another thread. That has to be an error or just someone floating out high prices to see if anyone is dumb enough to take it.

 

[Missyrose]

I just looked at SSR listings on the Fidelity website and loaded SSR contracts are advertised from $80 to $130 a point. Not sure what they're actually selling for but this is still a dramatic increase from what I paid back in 2008.

I saw that and posted about it on another thread. That has to be an error or just someone floating out high prices to see if anyone is dumb enough to take it.

Actually someone on another thread said they learned that sellers will raise the price to those levels when they decide they don't want to sell anymore. Their contract stipulates that if the brokers find someone to make a full-price offer, the sellers either have to take it or pay the commission to the broker. Jacking up the price may be a way to run out the clock on a listing without having to pay any additional money.

 

[JimMIA]

I just looked at SSR listings on the Fidelity website and loaded SSR contracts are advertised from $80 to $130 a point. Not sure what they're actually selling for but this is still a dramatic increase from what I paid back in 2008.

Okay, that's the problem then. Asking prices are irrelevant.

 

[JimMIA]

But I think we do need to be cautious. We only know and can evaluate our own circumstances, and a lot of people look at these analysis to justify something that it is a struggle to afford. Then, at the first financial difficulty, the house of cards falls down around them. And "hey look, if I bought resale in 2009 how much money I'd make if I sold now in 2013" is GREAT justification, in the worst way, for such people.

Absolutely, and that is my main reservation about a lot of these "financial justifications" for a purchase.

WAY too often, I see people grasping at straws to attempt to justify doing what they WANT despite tons of evidence against them. They will grasp one little example (often hypothetical, not even real! ) and use that to justify a bad decision.

The DVC timeshare salesmen and Fidelity brokers have both made a LOT of money off those folks.

 

[DougEMG]

By paying $84/point in 2006, you've saved a lot more than someone who paid $60/point in 2012 (when prices bottomed). I think of it as follows:

$84 - $60 = $24/point spread out over 6 years, or $4/point per year. Add that to your MF and that's how much your vacations cost for the years 2006 to 2012. With a MF below $6/point for those years, you paid less than $10/point for your DVC stays for those years. That's well below what Disney would charge even with a 40% "Room Only" discount, which puts you way ahead of the game compared to someone buying at $60/point in 2012.

By effectively depreciating your points to be the equivalent of $60/point in 2012, going forward, you're going to end paying exactly the same as someone who bought low in 2012. But, in terms of total savings, you'll remain ahead of them forever because of the savings you realized before they became members.

Note that this assumes you would have vacationed at WDW from 2006 to 2012 anyway.

Good point

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

By paying $84/point in 2006, you've saved a lot more than someone who paid $60/point in 2012 (when prices bottomed). I think of it as follows:

$84 - $60 = $24/point spread out over 6 years, or $4/point per year. Add that to your MF and that's how much your vacations cost for the years 2006 to 2012. With a MF below $6/point for those years, you paid less than $10/point for your DVC stays for those years. That's well below what Disney would charge even with a 40% "Room Only" discount, which puts you way ahead of the game compared to someone buying at $60/point in 2012.

By effectively depreciating your points to be the equivalent of $60/point in 2012, going forward, you're going to end paying exactly the same as someone who bought low in 2012. But, in terms of total savings, you'll remain ahead of them forever because of the savings you realized before they became members.

Note that this assumes you would have vacationed at WDW from 2006 to 2012 anyway.

Thank you for saying what I was trying to say.

One of these days, I'll figure out how to say what I really want to say.

I've gotten 6 years use out of my points that was probably worth $24/point.

Can you think of any other way that I could stay in a deluxe hotel within walking distance to Epcot and only pay $60-$80 per night?

VERY HAPPY!

 

[bkny]

This is really fascinating. Thank You for the info. I am curious to see how non WDW resorts have done. Would it be possible to do similar analysis for Hilton Head?

 

[dmunsil]

This is really fascinating. Thank You for the info. I am curious to see how non WDW resorts have done. Would it be possible to do similar analysis for Hilton Head?

I haven't checked Hilton Head, but assuming that county has their deeds available online, some analysis can probably be done. It depends on what the deed includes. If it wasn't for the Florida Deed Document Tax, we'd never know what the selling price was for most of these transactions. If South Carolina doesn't have something similar, some of this info is not available.

I did check Orange County California to see if something could be done for VGC. Unfortunately, while you can see deed flow for free, you can't see the deeds themselves without paying the county a $1/page document fee. Doing this analysis would be expensive as a hobby.

 

[iluvthsgam]

Actually someone on another thread said they learned that sellers will raise the price to those levels when they decide they don't want to sell anymore. Their contract stipulates that if the brokers find someone to make a full-price offer, the sellers either have to take it or pay the commission to the broker. Jacking up the price may be a way to run out the clock on a listing without having to pay any additional money.

ah, that makes sense then. I'm guessing these are exclusive listings with a time-period on them and that is a good way to run that out if they decide they don't want to sell.