goodtmz37
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2011
So I've crafted a formula that should help you calculate how much you should pay per point depending on your resort and the size of the contract. Essentially, I aggregated the data from the first page of the "Recently Passed ROFR" page, split the data into 3 "package sizes" (Small package = 100 points or less, Medium package = 101-199 points, Large package = 200 points or more). The equation variables are explained below. Some of you might be asking, "But were some of the packages loaded and some stripped?" By aggregating the data, we're able to cancel out that effect. Also, I've only had time to do 4 DVC sites (AKL, BLT, BWV, VWL). If I have time, I'll add more.
Equation:
**For VWL, subtract 2 from YL instead of 1**
------------------------------
RPPM = Resort Price Point Mean (find below)
RYLM = Resort Year Left Mean (find below)
YL = Years Left on your contract
NP = Number of Points in contract
PPM= Price per point for current Use Year and Banked Points (find below)
CYP = Number of points received in the current Use Year
BP = Number of points banked from previous years
--------------------------------
So, If I was buying a small point package (100 points or less) at AKL, lets say 50 points with all points in 2013 but only 10 points from 2012 UY, this is how much I should pay:
= $64.94 per point.
So, a fair price per point (or average price) would be $64.94 per point for a 50 point contract at AKV with 50 current UY and 10 Banked points. As the years continue, this price will go down because I have less years on my contract.
Hope this helps. The one thing this equation does not do is take into account the rarity of certain UY. So, if you're trying to hunt down a rare UY, you may need to pay more. This equation also does take into account MF or closing costs due at signing. Common sense usually says that seller pay CC, buyer pay MF (if package isn't stripped). One last disclaimer, these prices were taken from those contracts that passed ROFR, but DIS may decide to change their reasoning for ROFR without us understanding. I doubt this equation will hold up for years to come. For an even more accurate estimate, you'll probably need to multiply your final number times the inflation rate since Jan '13.
Good hunting!
(FYI I've got a contract submitted to ROFR at VWL (Sept) 240 pts, 201 in 2012, all the rest going forward. $60, Buyer pays MF, Seller pays closing.
Equation:
**For VWL, subtract 2 from YL instead of 1**
------------------------------
RPPM = Resort Price Point Mean (find below)
RYLM = Resort Year Left Mean (find below)
YL = Years Left on your contract
NP = Number of Points in contract
PPM= Price per point for current Use Year and Banked Points (find below)
CYP = Number of points received in the current Use Year
BP = Number of points banked from previous years
--------------------------------
So, If I was buying a small point package (100 points or less) at AKL, lets say 50 points with all points in 2013 but only 10 points from 2012 UY, this is how much I should pay:
So, a fair price per point (or average price) would be $64.94 per point for a 50 point contract at AKV with 50 current UY and 10 Banked points. As the years continue, this price will go down because I have less years on my contract.
Hope this helps. The one thing this equation does not do is take into account the rarity of certain UY. So, if you're trying to hunt down a rare UY, you may need to pay more. This equation also does take into account MF or closing costs due at signing. Common sense usually says that seller pay CC, buyer pay MF (if package isn't stripped). One last disclaimer, these prices were taken from those contracts that passed ROFR, but DIS may decide to change their reasoning for ROFR without us understanding. I doubt this equation will hold up for years to come. For an even more accurate estimate, you'll probably need to multiply your final number times the inflation rate since Jan '13.
Good hunting!
(FYI I've got a contract submitted to ROFR at VWL (Sept) 240 pts, 201 in 2012, all the rest going forward. $60, Buyer pays MF, Seller pays closing.