It's pretty simple. The supply of resale deeds is growing faster than the demand for them is. As a result, prices go down.
I believe (quite strongly) that the effective abandonment ROFR was the effect, not the cause. The cause was sharply increasing supply relative to demand, in part through natural growth of the system, and in part through the financial crisis putting stress on a lot of owners who still owed on their DVC loans. Disney could buy those back, but only once a willing seller and buyer met, so the prices still follow the overall supply/demand curve of the market. What's more, they would still have to resell it to someone else---but they had their own inventory to sell as well.
If you go back and look at the old ROFR/sales threads, you will see prices started to decline significantly even before ROFR was essentially stopped. What's more, it is clear that Disney believes the resale market presents them challenges, otherwise they would not have created resale restrictions. Yet, they are not using the one tool that everyone thinks would cause resale prices to recover to narrow the gap between resale and retail---which suggests to me that the costs of ROFRing enough to move the market have been judged to be just too high, even for Disney's deep pockets.
It's pretty simple. The supply of resale deeds is growing faster than the demand for them is. As a result, prices go down.
I believe (quite strongly) that the effective abandonment ROFR was the effect, not the cause. The cause was sharply increasing supply relative to demand, in part through natural growth of the system, and in part through the financial crisis putting stress on a lot of owners who still owed on their DVC loans. Disney could buy those back, but only once a willing seller and buyer met, so the prices still follow the overall supply/demand curve of the market. What's more, they would still have to resell it to someone else---but they had their own inventory to sell as well.
If you go back and look at the old ROFR/sales threads, you will see prices started to decline significantly even before ROFR was essentially stopped. What's more, it is clear that Disney believes the resale market presents them challenges, otherwise they would not have created resale restrictions. Yet, they are not using the one tool that everyone thinks would cause resale prices to recover to narrow the gap between resale and retail---which suggests to me that the costs of ROFRing enough to move the market have been judged to be just too high, even for Disney's deep pockets.
I agree with this post but would also add: Due to the current economic climate there must be many people who have simply "walked away" from their contracts leaving Disney with "free" points and therefore reducing the need to ROFR. Why buy the cow (more expensive points through ROFR) when you are getting the milk for free(DVC contracts and points essentially being handed back in). I don't think we will see strong movement on ROFR in the near future (if ever again) since; 1) SSR is sold out and due to its size, the potential for default owners is possibly huge, and as stated above 2) There are too many points in circulation which means DVC needs many more potential buyers (a tougher sell right now).
Stephen
Not just SSR, the overall inventory is glutted. And DVC keeps building more. And the original owners for the older resorts have owned a long time - long enough for their lives to significantly change.
There are also the indirect costs, people are reluctant to buy a timeshare with fuel costs uncertain, for instance. Maybe they can afford the projected dues, but if their $300 a person airfare goes up to $500 a person, they'll have a problem.
Not just SSR, the overall inventory is glutted. And DVC keeps building more. And the original owners for the older resorts have owned a long time - long enough for their lives to significantly change.
There are also the indirect costs, people are reluctant to buy a timeshare with fuel costs uncertain, for instance. Maybe they can afford the projected dues, but if their $300 a person airfare goes up to $500 a person, they'll have a problem.