Will USA based cruises be the last to restart?

[BadPinkTink]

Some interesting updates in the last few days about the restart of cruising in Europe and Singapore.

Royal Caribbean Quantum of The Seas have restarted sailing in Singapore with fully vaccinated cruises. This means that all passengers and crew are vaccinated. The cruises are only available to residents of Singapore and are round trip cruises to no where with no port stops.
https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/...g-cruises-nowhere-singapore-through-june-2021
Royal Caribbean Odyssey of The Seas will restart sailing in May in Israel with fully vaccinated cruises. This means that all passengers and crew are vaccinated. The cruises are only available to residents of Israel and are round trip cruises around the Mediterranean, with port stops in Rhodes, Santorini, Mykonos and Athens, Greece and Limassol, Cyprus.
https://www.royalcaribbeanpresscent...-shalom-israel-with-odyssey-of-the-seas-debut
P & O Cruise Line President has announced that they hope to restart in summer 2021 with round trip cruises from Southampton around the British Isles. More details are to follow but the wording of the statement alludes to these cruises being available to UK residents only.
https://www.pocruises.com/travel-health-advisories
The USA is the only country which has rules against cruises to nowhere or round trips with domestic ports only.

It is very likely that other cruiselines will follow Royal Caribbean and P & O.

 

[tvguy]

Well, Disney is probably going to be among the last if not the last cruise line to resume. They have their brand to project. We are 11 days short of one year since Disneyland closed. Last thing Disney needs is a covid outbreak on a ship loaded with kids and their Grandparents.

 

[BadPinkTink]

Well, Disney is probably going to be among the last if not the last cruise line to resume. They have their brand to project. We are 11 days short of one year since Disneyland closed. Last thing Disney needs is a covid outbreak on a ship loaded with kids and their Grandparents.

Well considering that Disney has a ship in Europe, and these other cruise lines are cancelling their original planned itineraries and restarting with cruises to nowhere for residents of a specific country, I'm wondering would Disney do the same? It looks to me that Royal Caribbean and now P& O are thinking that cruising with restrictions is better than not cruising at all.

The Disney Magic is not under the jurisdiction of the American CDC, so Disney have the option of restarting just like Royal Caribbean and P& O.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The Magic typically sails with a lot of Americans on board. I don't see even with wanting to sail with reduced capacity the local audience being large enough to get them to sea.

 

[yowcruiser]

Could I see DCL modifying the Northern Europe cruises to British Isles cruises of different lengths - Yes, given how aggressive the UK is moving toward vaccinating its people. Denmark and Norway are also slightly ahead of the European curve so Northern Europe could be possible by late summer as well. Would DCL limit to resident of a specific country... if the cruise is to run at 25 or 50% capacity... maybe... but by late Summer, vaccination rates in North America will likely be fairly high too. The variable for DCL is likely going to be whether countries such as the UK lift quarantine requirements for foreigners by a certain date (May... maybe June at the latest) Vaccination is likely going to be one of the factor... depending on how effective it is vs emerging variants

 

[tvguy]

The Disney Magic is not under the jurisdiction of the American CDC, so Disney have the option of restarting just like Royal Caribbean and P& O.

I can't see Disney not following CDC guidelines with any of their ships. They follow U.S. smoking policies when they are outside the U.S. for example. I bring that up because I was within earshot of a conversation with an International passenger and a Disney Magic officer where the man said he was following the smoking policy, but restrictions on smoking would be unthinkable in his homeland

 

[BadPinkTink]

I can't see Disney not following CDC guidelines with any of their ships.

what I mean is that as The Disney Magic is in Europe and we are talking about cruises resuming in Europe , that for DCL to restart in Europe, they have to follow the European guidelines, not the American CDC guidelines. The main difference between the two is that the American CDC require certification and test cruises, where as the European CDC only require the physical changes, the new policies and documentation about the the physical changes, the new policies. If DCL were to restart the Magic in Europe then they just have to follow what Royal Caribbean have done.

 

[tvguy]

what I mean is that as The Disney Magic is in Europe and we are talking about cruises resuming in Europe , that for DCL to restart in Europe, they have to follow the European guidelines, not the American CDC guidelines. The main difference between the two is that the American CDC require certification and test cruises, where as the European CDC only require the physical changes, the new policies and documentation about the the physical changes, the new policies. If DCL were to restart the Magic in Europe then they just have to follow what Royal Caribbean have done.

And they would have ports willing to accept their ships.

 

[BadPinkTink]

And they would have ports willing to accept their ships.

Not necessarily. In Europe cruises to no where with no ports or cruises with just domestic ports such as a British Isles sailing are possible, unlike in USA. Again, they can follow Royal Caribbean. In Europe DCL has 2 home ports, Dover in England and Barcelona in Spain. They could very easily restart with either winter British Isles sailings for UK residents or Mediterranean sailings for Spanish residents.

 

[Cruising Engineer]

@BadPinkTink has a good point. The Magic could sail UK passengers just around the UK. When the season opens up, do the same limited/common country passengers for the Fjords (Danes/Swedes/Norwegians).

 

[tankin]

@BadPinkTink Disney announced the cancellation of all of their European cruises last week.... I'm just waiting on them to sail her back to the State since her next cruise is out of NY in Sept

 

[BadPinkTink]

@BadPinkTink has a good point. The Magic could sail UK passengers just around the UK. When the season opens up, do the same limited/common country passengers for the Fjords (Danes/Swedes/Norwegians).

From a business point of view, I think its getting to the stage that the cruising industry is looking more and more at this type of sailings. They can't keep the ships empty, they know they have to have limited capacity, and now that Royal Caribbean are doing the Israel route, I think more cruiselines will follow.

@BadPinkTink Disney announced the cancellation of all of their European cruises last week.... I'm just waiting on them to sail her back to the State since her next cruise is out of NY in Sept

Thats not correct. DCL have only canclled up to the middle of August. There are still 4 Northern Europe sailings that have not been cancelled. I am booked on the September 4th Norwegian Fjords which has not been cancelled. The British Isles, the August Norwegian Fjords and the Copenhagen to Dover sailings have not been cancelled.

 

[lanejudy]

I don’t see DCL doing any cruises until children can and do get vaccinated. Yes, there are many adults who enjoy Disney cruises, but it’s a family brand and i just don’t think there are enough adults-only willing to pay DCL pricing. Especially if restricted to residents of a single country.

 

[Cruising Engineer]

Yes, there are many adults who enjoy Disney cruises, but it’s a family brand and i just don’t think there are enough adults-only willing to pay DCL pricing. Especially if restricted to residents of a single country.

This would make a good and current questionnaire for this forum.

 

[BadPinkTink]

This would make a good and current questionnaire for this forum.

It would be good, but the results would be skewed as the majority of Dis members are American, not European. You would need to ask that question in a place where European based cruisers are

 

[otten]

@BadPinkTink Disney announced the cancellation of all of their European cruises last week.... I'm just waiting on them to sail her back to the State since her next cruise is out of NY in Sept

Not quite all, our August 18 Northern European still lives on, along with the European cruises after it. I won’t be on it and I still doubt it will sail but they didn’t cancel the whole season.

 

[Intr3pid]

Good points - a few more to keep in mind:

1. While Disney can certainly sail out of Dover for limited itineraries, they can't easily fill the ship with just the UK passengers. At least not at the prices they normally charge. The guest composition on the European sailings is highly international. Even if Americans/Canadians stay out, Disney still needs broader European - particularly, German - guests to push the prices through.

2. It isn't easy for Disney to lower prices dramatically (compared to, say, RCL) due to the high operating costs of their ships. The lower occupancy requirements don't help either since a lot of the costs are fixed.

3. The margins on the European sailings in the summer are much higher than those in the Caribbeans - so, normally, it wouldn't make business sense to keep all your ships in North America for the summer. It isn't normal times though, and there is a lot of pent-up cruising demand everywhere.

4. While the kids factor is real, it isn't fatal. You can exempt kids from vaccination requirements. (You still test them well.)

5. The August Baltic sailings are pretty much all but cancelled. I can't see Disney doing those one-way itineraries when they have ditched the one-way Iceland cruise. Those cruises are also the exact opposite of the cruises to nowhere - seeing how many countries they touch.

 

[BadPinkTink]

Princess cruises are have joined the list

https://www.princess.com/news/notic...mpton-sailings-through-september-25-2021.html
For UK guests, Princess Cruises will launch a series of new short cruises departing in late- summer on Regal Princess and Sky Princess from Southampton that will go on sale later this month.

 

[gotomu212]

Purely speculation, but my initial response when Magic cancelled most of their European cruises was that Europe was going the route that cruises could resume with only Schengen residents and DCL doesn’t have the market demand without US customers for those cruises.

I guess they could come up with some shorter cruises to fill those months, but they’ve never been strong in the EU market and would need to substantially cut their fares.

 

[PirateFrank]

For some reason, call it a hunch, I don't think DCL plans to sail those four remaining european cruises. The reasons and criteria for not sailing the cruises already canceled still exists with these four cruises remaining. They might simply be spreading out the refunds (like they have been doing all along). If you're on one of those remaining cruises, I would consider the possibility that it won't sail. I would not interpret those 4 cruises will definitely sail, given that they were not amongst the cruises canceled last week.

I had speculated in another thread that I think Europe may be gone for good in 2021 -- and that DCL might be trying to piece together alternate plans for the Magic. They may bring her 'home' to the US and use her in some capacity here in the states....and the reason I say that, is they may want to manage/watch the first 2-3 months back in the water *very* closely from PC.

I don't think they will just flip the switch back on and all of the itineraries that exist upon start up will sail on as originally booked. These first 2-3 months of sailing for all cruise lines, not just Disney, will be closely monitored and have modified itineraries.