Which resort is best for resale in 15 years?

[Henwen88]

I completely understand keeping resale value in mind, but don't forget to buy what you want to actually USE!!!

Do you have a family that will comfortably fit into a BLT studio? Poly/VGF much more comfortable for a longer studio stay, IMO. However, BLT has pretty much my favorite 1 BR

Also, consider CCV fixed week for studio stays if you have a static time of year (the race week option looks fantastic - more flexible than the standard Sun to Sun - and I believe its CCV only... too bad it was introduced after we already bought one lol).

 

[Lorana]

I completely understand keeping resale value in mind, but don't forget to buy what you want to actually USE!!!

Do you have a family that will comfortably fit into a BLT studio? Poly/VGF much more comfortable for a longer studio stay, IMO. However, BLT has pretty much my favorite 1 BR

Also, consider CCV fixed week for studio stays if you have a static time of year (the race week option looks fantastic - more flexible than the standard Sun to Sun - and I believe its CCV only... too bad it was introduced after we already bought one lol).

Yes, runDisney Fixed Weeks are only at CCV. We ended up picking up the Food & Wine runDisney event, so we could have the flexibility for that week for Food & Wine and for when my husband does want to run the races.

You can buy Fixed Weeks at CCV, Poly, VGF, RIV, and AUL.

 

[havoc315]

I am not really sure where you are getting the take that the "novelty" of BLT is wearing off. It is consistently have the highest resale price per point behind Grand Floridian. You are never going to take away the "novelty" of being able to walk 5 minutes and have a private security check point into Magic Kingdom. Not to mention is has a lot of years remaining on the contracts.

We have both Poly and BLT, but as our kids have gotten older, we realize that a studio simply cannot be in the cards for very much longer.

By definition... it’s no longer novel. It’s no longer the only DVC on the monorail, it’s no longer the only DVC walkable to Magic Kingdom. Thus, by definition, the novelty is gone.

And re-sale prices at BLT are pretty middle of the road. Typically lower than GFV, BCV, and PBV.
But that’s not the best measure— the best measure is re-sale vs new. BLT re-sale, on average, retains its value worse than most WDW DVC.

 

[Yinn]

By definition... it’s no longer novel. It’s no longer the only DVC on the monorail, it’s no longer the only DVC walkable to Magic Kingdom. Thus, by definition, the novelty is gone.

And re-sale prices at BLT are pretty middle of the road. Typically lower than GFV, BCV, and PBV.
But that’s not the best measure— the best measure is re-sale vs new. BLT re-sale, on average, retains its value worse than most WDW DVC.

I'm a PVB owner as well and I'm not sure I agree with that entirely. We like PVB, but a large part of why we bought it was because BLT was too expensive and PVB offered much more value in comparison.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-january-21-report/
The highest buyback for BLT was $161, lowest at $128. Poly is just starting it's buybacks and is $131-$138. Like for like in the same month, BLT was $152 last month. PVB was $138, VGF was $153. If anything, PVB is lagging behind in terms of pure resale cost.

If we look at direct prices, BLT is currently $245, PVB is $250, VGF is $255. That means Disney is propping BLT up 62% of direct, PVB to 55% of direct pricing, and VGF to 60% of direct pricing. That means BLT should have the least amount of depreciation.

Even if we look at the average sold prices (https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-january-2021/) ..average BLT last month was $154. PVB was $151, and VGF was $178.

That means compared to direct BLT averaged 63% of direct. PVB averaged 60% of direct. VGF averaged 70% of direct. PVB is the loser there...

Don't get me wrong. I still love the resort, but the numbers actually support buying PVB resale right now because it loses so much compared to buying direct.

 

[havoc315]

I'm a PVB owner as well and I'm not sure I agree with that entirely. We like PVB, but a large part of why we bought it was because BLT was too expensive and PVB offered much more value in comparison.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-january-21-report/
The highest buyback for BLT was $161, lowest at $128. Poly is just starting it's buybacks and is $131-$138. Like for like in the same month, BLT was $152 last month. PVB was $138, VGF was $153. If anything, PVB is lagging behind in terms of pure resale cost.

If we look at direct prices, BLT is currently $245, PVB is $250, VGF is $255. That means Disney is propping BLT up 62% of direct, PVB to 55% of direct pricing, and VGF to 60% of direct pricing. That means BLT should have the least amount of depreciation.

Even if we look at the average sold prices (https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-january-2021/) ..average BLT last month was $154. PVB was $151, and VGF was $178.

That means compared to direct BLT averaged 63% of direct. PVB averaged 60% of direct. VGF averaged 70% of direct. PVB is the loser there...

Don't get me wrong. I still love the resort, but the numbers actually support buying PVB resale right now because it loses so much compared to buying direct.

It fluctuates... but most months, Poly resale prices are higher than BLT..

 

[Yinn]

It fluctuates... but most months, Poly resale prices are higher than BLT..

View attachment 554642

Indeed it does. BLT was higher than PVB for 6 out of the previous 12 months and vice versa. That's hardly condemning evidence that BLT has horrible resale value, especially in the way you put it compared to the direct pricing - of which BLT is lower.

 

[havoc315]

Indeed it does. BLT was higher than PVB for 6 out of the previous 12 months and vice versa. That's hardly condemning evidence that BLT has horrible resale value, especially in the way you put it compared to the direct pricing - of which BLT is lower.

But I’m looking 15 years into the future. Not simply 6 months into the past.

 

[Bobby2443]

I’m a little biased because I have a contract pending at VGF but I think the answer is either VGF or BLT. Great location and lots of contract left. My only beef with poly isn’t the further distance from walking to MK but the lack of variety with room types. For my family having the kitchen with a 1 or 2 bedroom matters and I wouldn’t buy there for that reason with the choice being studio with no kitchen or bungalow that needs a ton of points. I suspect I‘m not the only one in this boat which is why I think BLT or VGF are the best options

 

[gisele2]

I think VGF , BLT and PVB are good choices . They are in the MK area and have low annual dues . I would not put aside one of them , but would chase a good price on every resale site.

 

[Captain Trips]

BLT or Poly. I chose BLT over poly due to the lack of room options.

 

[tstein12]

This thread has been very helpful to me. I'm in the process of researching my first DVC contract (resale) and was considering SSR, BLT, and PVB. I was originally thinking I would go with SSR for the low buy-in cost and point chart, but I have ruled it out based on research and info found on the DISboard. So now it is down to BLT or PVB. The studio size at BLT is not a problem because it's only me and my 10-year daughter (husband hates Disney so he will never join us) or just me at times since I like the occasional solo visit. I think it will come down to renting points for a split stay on our next visit to see which one we like the best. I'm torn because I like PVB's theming better, but prefer BLT's location. Also another plus for BLT is the variety of room types in case I ever travel with friends and family.

 

[Evita_W]

After factoring incentives and all, we bought VGC in 2010 for about $85 per point, it currently is easily selling for $285 per point in a week or less, more patient people are getting more. Now, I personally have no intention of selling at this point, but I do like to keep tabs on what it is going for. Now that is in just 11 years time. Inflation would be that we paid about $100 per point in today's dollars. So I obviously would say VGC, but who knows if that will continue.

 

[princesscinderella]

After factoring incentives and all, we bought VGC in 2010 for about $85 per point, it currently is easily selling for $285 per point in a week or less, more patient people are getting more. Now, I personally have no intention of selling at this point, but I do like to keep tabs on what it is going for. Now that is in just 11 years time. Inflation would be that we paid about $100 per point in today's dollars. So I obviously would say VGC, but who knows if that will continue.

The location of VGC will always be superior to the planned DLV but I think once there’s another DVC option on the west coast the price will come down a bit.

 

[DVCsloth]

I would guess Poly if you were only interested in studios. Personally, I would choose CCV, because I like the location, point chart and the option of different room types.

 

[RoseGold]

With the VGF demand, I could see VGF north happening sooner than later which would make the points even more attractive which also makes it more likely to end up as a true add on (like Kidani or THV)

I just bought VGF and thought about this. But just imagine the VGF North point chart!!!!

The RIV chart is already uncomfortably close to VGF, I would bet the next, shiny, new DVC will be above VGF. VGF North (or BLT 2) would only make those old point charts shine more, and charts are escalating fast.

The reason I don't think Disney would do something like paint more Kidani units is because they'd be stuck in that old chart. If they can't build a beast of a resort in a mediocre location, as was planned, better to convert a wing of Beach Club, or build a Miami wing of VGF, and keep the points inflating.

 

[bookwormde]

I just bought VGF and thought about this. But just imagine the VGF North point chart!!!!

The RIV chart is already uncomfortably close to VGF, I would bet the next, shiny, new DVC will be above VGF. VGF North (or BLT 2) would only make those old point charts shine more, and charts are escalating fast.

The reason I don't think Disney would do something like paint more Kidani units is because they'd be stuck in that old chart. If they can't build a beast of a resort in a mediocre location, as was planned, better to convert a wing of Beach Club, or build a Miami wing of VGF, and keep the points inflating.

I am thinking that for VGF north that the point charts would be the same for existing categories, but would also include a significantly higher MK view category

 

[DVCsloth]

Wouldn't DVC restart reflections before a VGF north or BLT 2?

 

[princesscinderella]

Wouldn't DVC restart reflections before a VGF north or BLT 2?

I would think they would too! The land is cleared and waiting.

 

[sethschroeder]

It is consistently have the highest resale price per point behind Grand Floridian.

Well that isn't exactly a true statement. I looked at BLT because it had the lowest priced offerings actually on resale with a long contract and park attached.

Yes the BLT is grouped with the rest but you could find BLT cheaper actually at least last year not sure now.

The highest buyback

Except Poly was never even bought back basically until this year. There was foreclosures and such at a rate high enough that Disney didn't need to buy back.

So buy right now 4 years after selling out isnt that useful since just now are most contracts no longer under Disney financing.

Also look at the resale thread that was started. They have to buy back BLT to prop up the price to where it is today. Once Poly is actually getting bought back at post foreclosure period rates expect a slight bump.

In the end I would think BLT will retain value a touch better simply because it's a well rounded resort for room types. I could see more Poly contracts being resold.

Not sure there will be that big of a difference though in the end. Enough people just want "the cheapest monorail resort".

 

[WRLeGrand]

Well that isn't exactly a true statement. I looked at BLT because it had the lowest priced offerings actually on resale with a long contract and park attached.

Yes the BLT is grouped with the rest but you could find BLT cheaper actually at least last year not sure now.



Except Poly was never even bought back basically until this year. There was foreclosures and such at a rate high enough that Disney didn't need to buy back.

So buy right now 4 years after selling out isnt that useful since just now are most contracts no longer under Disney financing.

Also look at the resale thread that was started. They have to buy back BLT to prop up the price to where it is today. Once Poly is actually getting bought back at post foreclosure period rates expect a slight bump.

In the end I would think BLT will retain value a touch better simply because it's a well rounded resort for room types. I could see more Poly contracts being resold.

Not sure there will be that big of a difference though in the end. Enough people just want "the cheapest monorail resort".

I think we are talking about now, and moving forward for the next 15 years. You assertion that it was cheaper a year ago, simply drives home the point I was trying to make. The price is higher than Poly (in most cases) right now and buy-backs are at ultra high rates on BLT. Seems like it is trending upward. As you stated it is more "well-rounded" in room types, which I think is big for resale buyers.

Listen my family has both Poly and BLT, and I can tell you we would probably sell Poly first, because of the room options. This is with my admitting we like Poly better.