Which dates am I more likely to get Monorail resort at 7 months?

[MJ6987]

Hi All,
We will be booking our first DVC stay for December 2016 (I know its a while off)

Coming from the UK, we want to stay 14 nights from 12-26 December.

At 11 months I am hoping to book the whole 14 nights in our home resort BWV - booking the standard studio room for value (I know that I will need to do this in stages).

At 7 months we would like to re-book part of this stay (say, 4 nights) in one of the monorail resorts (preferably) or Wildnerness Lodge as an alternative. Again, we would want a studio.

My question is, basically, would we have more chance of getting this at the start of the 14 nights (12-16 Dec) or at the end (22-26 Dec)? Also, what are our chances either way and is there particular monorail resorts that would have a better chance? I guess that Poly would be our first choice.

Thanks!

 

[rlovew]

That is a really hard time of year to get any reosrt outside of your home resort. I would say that BLT lakeview or Poly standard is the most likely to be available for a couple of nights if anything is but I also know that I have tried to book some nights in Dec at BLT at 9 months out and been shut out so while those 2 categories are the most liekly to be available I would not expect you to be able to get more than 1-2 nights anywhere near a park at 7 months during Dec. The later nights that are more points for the stay are the ones most likely to have a night or 2 of availability.

 

[supersnoop]

Later will have a higher chance. The point requirement increases in the middle of December, so most DVCer's book early December. I'd expect a lake-view at BLT; a one-bedroom is more likely than a studio. Depending on how much of PVB has been sold and declared, you might have a chance there.

 

[Geomom]

I would think you'd have a better chance of getting it at the start of the 14 nights. The end of your stay will have more kids out of school for winter breaks.

 

[MJ6987]

Anyone want to do the tie breaker?

I will need to decide which one to go for

 

[MJ6987]

Later will have a higher chance. The point requirement increases in the middle of December, so most DVCer's book early December. I'd expect a lake-view at BLT; a one-bedroom is more likely than a studio. Depending on how much of PVB has been sold and declared, you might have a chance there.

Thanks!

 

[Minniesgal]

i think the later dates straight after the DVC points increase later in your stay will be easier to book. early December is the highest DVC demand.

VGF will be out for a studio as owners can't even book them then due to demand. VWL is very popular in December. your best bet in BLT lake view 1 bedroom then maybe Poly but personally i think Poly will be difficult.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'd attempt to book at the start but be flexible enough to change it to the end if you can't get it at the start. How's that!

Depending on Poly sales that may be the one with the most availability. Otherwise 1BR lakeview at BLT. Maybe you'll have some luck and get a studio. Don't plan point wise for the standard views. And if you don't get it right away waitlist.

Honestly, the time in the middle of your stay is probably the sweet spot for booking somewhere at the 7 month mark but the start of your trip is right on the cusp of that so you may get lucky. Flexibility will help a lot in getting something.

 

[DenLo]

You might want to check out Skier_Pete's thread regarding DVC Booking patterns. http://www.disboards.com/threads/predicted-dvc-booking-patterns-studios-some-1-bedrooms.3419112/

FYI, VWL rooms could be affected by construction noise into 2018 due the renovation of the quiet pool and even the addition of cabins along the shore line.

 

[drusba]

You are unlikely to have any chance for VGF, BLT standard, or BLT theme park view studios. BLT lake view studios have some possibility but likely not more than a low chance -- those tend to have some openings between Dec 15 and Dec 22 although only a limited number of nughts and those openings do not usually happen for the beginning or ending four days of the trip you plan. VWL studios are about equal to the chances for BLT lake view.

Poly is still an unknown. For 2015 at 7 months out, rthere were openings during the period you want, although not so much at the beginning of the period you want but for the nights at the end, but those disappeared quickly once the 7 month window opened. The problem is that there is no assurance history will repeat itself there next year. Seven months out was in May 2015, a time when a good portion of Poly was dedicated to DVC but there was not yet a significant number of Poly owners. The sheer number of studios may help but I believe there is a real risk the nights at the begoinning and end of the period you want will be gone before 7 months out.