When can I ressie for BLT at 7 mos?

[BWV Dreamin]

I know the BLT will not be open until fall 2009. What's the earliest I can make a 7 mos. ressie?

 

[maburke]

BLT owners will be able to make reservations March 1, 2009, for anytime from resort opening to 11 months later (February 1, 2010). Then on March 15, all other members will be able to make reservations for anytime from resort opening to 7 months later (October 15, 2009). Then the windows move forward as usual.

 

[DebbieB]

BLT owners will be able to make reservations March 1, 2009, for anytime from resort opening to 11 months later (December 1, 2009). Then on March 15, all other members will be able to make reservations for anytime from resort opening to 7 months later (October 15, 2009). Then the windows move forward as usual.

Wouldn't 11 months be February 1, 2010?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I know the BLT will not be open until fall 2009. What's the earliest I can make a 7 mos. ressie?

i don't expect any availability at 7 months except for perhaps the dead slowest of times.....

this monorail DVC is odds on to be a "look....but don't touch" for many......i would expect any remaining non-home member availability to be gobbled up within the first 5 minutes of the day of the 7 month window....

people love choo-choos and fiberglass castles.......that is evidenced by the fact that they can sell their two oldest hotels for 400 bucks a night.....

 

[maburke]

Wouldn't 11 months be February 1, 2010?

Yes, of course. That's what I get for doing this while trying to watch 3 kids in the tub. (The tidal wave they made nearly washed away my laptop in the middle of my post.)

 

[Anal Annie]

So, if you were interested in booking 4 nights beginning Fri 1/15/10 thru Mon 1/18/10 and were looking to book at 7 mo. you'd be calling at 9:00 AM sharp on 6/15/09??? That would be 7 months from the first night that you want to reserve, and that's how the new booking rules work right?

 

[tomandrobin]

i don't expect any availability at 7 months except for perhaps the dead slowest of times.....

this monorail DVC is odds on to be a "look....but don't touch" for many......i would expect any remaining non-home member availability to be gobbled up within the first 5 minutes of the day of the 7 month window....

On March 15, there should be plenty availability. Remember, the whole resort will be open, but only 1/4 of the total points will be sold. That leaves 3/4 of the remaining points up for grabs. Also, even those who have bought is not all of them are booking for that time period. If I had 11 month window, I would shoot for NYE.

 

[JaxFLBear]

So, if you were interested in booking 4 nights beginning Fri 1/15/10 thru Mon 1/18/10 and were looking to book at 7 mo. you'd be calling at 9:00 AM sharp on 6/15/09??? That would be 7 months from the first night that you want to reserve, and that's how the new booking rules work right?

That's correct.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

On March 15, there should be plenty availability. Remember, the whole resort will be open, but only 1/4 of the total points will be sold. That leaves 3/4 of the remaining points up for grabs. Also, even those who have bought is not all of them are booking for that time period. If I had 11 month window, I would shoot for NYE.

My thoughts exactly Tom!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

On March 15, there should be plenty availability. Remember, the whole resort will be open, but only 1/4 of the total points will be sold. That leaves 3/4 of the remaining points up for grabs. Also, even those who have bought is not all of them are booking for that time period. If I had 11 month window, I would shoot for NYE.

that is a good point......i hadn't thought of that.

It would be advantageous to attempt to book at the opening for just that reason...

i believe this thing will probably be sold out in record time......even with widespread financial ruin....so this particular loophole will close quickly and the logjam will ensue

 

[CarolMN]

On March 15, there should be plenty availability. Remember, the whole resort will be open, but only 1/4 of the total points will be sold. That leaves 3/4 of the remaining points up for grabs. Also, even those who have bought is not all of them are booking for that time period. If I had 11 month window, I would shoot for NYE.

But if only 1/4 of the total points have been sold, the whole resort will not be available to DVC members!

Only the amount that has been declared into the condominium by the developer will be available to DVC members reserving on points. The Developer declares inventory into the condominium (i.e., adds inventory to the member 'bucket') to keep ahead of sales.

Units ready for occupancy and not declared belong to the Developer and are NOT available for members to reserve for points. Instead, those units are sent to CRO/WDWTC and offered to the general public for cash rental.
The proceeds from CRO/WDWTC rentals go to the Developer.

 

[tomandrobin]

that is a good point......i hadn't thought of that.

It would be advantageous to attempt to book at the opening for just that reason...

i believe this thing will probably be sold out in record time......even with widespread financial ruin....so this particular loophole will close quickly and the logjam will ensue

It will not sell out in record time. There a ton of points to be sold for BLT. It has 2.5 times as many rooms as BCV, but has 3.5 to 4 times as many points. Just look at the points required for a grand villa, BCV does not have and grand villas.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

It will not sell out in record time. There a ton of points to be sold for BLT. It has 2.5 times as many rooms as BCV, but has 3.5 to 4 times as many points. Just look at the points required for a grand villa, BCV does not have and grand villas.

I respectfully disagree....

I worked the ops desk at GF for awhile so i can tell you firsthand......


there is absolutely no limits to the amount of money people will throw at having a room on that lagoon.....

fireworks....monorail....castle.....princess parties....

it truly defies logic.

that's my prediction...at least

 

[tomandrobin]

I respectfully disagree....

I worked the ops desk at GF for awhile so i can tell you firsthand......

there is absolutely no limits to the amount of money people will throw at having a room on that lagoon.....

fireworks....monorail....castle.....princess parties....

it truly defies logic.

that's my prediction...at least

It took a year for BCV to sell out. Back then the minimum was 230 points, give or take 10? Now the minimum is 160 points. And really look at the point total of each resort, I think you will want to rethink the quick sell out stance.

Timeshare people and those who pay cash are two different "class" of clients, and vacation to different ways. A GF guest expects dailt maid service, exception staff, full resort amenites - shopping, dining, recreation. A timeshare does not offer those types of luxuries, like Grand Floridian offers.

 

[tjkraz]

i don't expect any availability at 7 months except for perhaps the dead slowest of times.....

That's not true.

In order for the resort to have no availability at 7 months, all of the resorts owners would have to fully book it more than 7 months out during their Home priority period. That obviously will not happen. Regardless of how high demand might be, there will always be owners are are unable or unwilling to book that far in advance. Some owners will bank their points. Some will wait to book other resorts at 7 months.

So, yes, there will be rooms available at 7 months much of the year.

However, the supply could be fairly small and coupled with high demand the resort will still fill up shortly after the 7 month window most of the year.

It will not sell out in record time. There a ton of points to be sold for BLT. It has 2.5 times as many rooms as BCV, but has 3.5 to 4 times as many points.

Actually BLT has about 45% more rooms (208 BCV, 295 BLT) and almost exactly 2x as many points (roughly 3.02 million at BCV to 6.03 million at BLT.)

But I agree it isn't going to sell out in "record time". Another factor not mentioned here is the fact that BLT will sell concurrently with at least 3 other resorts--AKV, SSR (treehouses) and VGC (first Disneyland DVC.)

BCV took up to 18 months to sell and yet was pretty much the only option available during that entire period (I believe there was some overlap with VWL and Vero.)

 

[tomandrobin]

almost exactly 2x as many points (roughly 3.02 million at BCV to 6.03 million at BLT.)

But I agree it isn't going to sell out in "record time". Another factor not mentioned here is the fact that BLT will sell concurrently with at least 3 other resorts--AKV, SSR (treehouses) and VGC (first Disneyland DVC.)

BCV took up to 18 months to sell and yet was pretty much the only option available during that entire period (I believe there was some overlap with VWL and Vero.)

Thanks for those point totals Tim. I have been looking for the BLT total, but had a hard time. For comparison purposes, do you have the total points for AKV's and GCV's?

 

[tjkraz]

Thanks for those point totals Tim. I have been looking for the BLT total, but had a hard time. For comparison purposes, do you have the total points for AKV's and GCV's?

No prob.

I posted my logic here if you want to see it:

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=27769064&postcount=20

I simply used the Maximum Reallocation values--which should represent the average daily cost per unit with no variations for season or room class.

Here is AKV applying the same logic to the room counts I have:

Dedicated Studio = 46 x 15 points x 365 = 251850
2B = 390 x 45 x 365 = 6405750
GV = 22 x 99 x 356 = 794970

Total for AKV would be about 7.45 million points.

(Incidentally, the Jambo rooms represent about 1.82 million points--or about 25% of the total--and sold from roughly Feb '07 to May '08.)

I don't think we know anything about VGC points yet--only that it will have 2 grand villas and 48 2Bs. If we use the the BLT max reallocation values as a guess, I come up with about 1.02 million points at VGC.

 

[maburke]

It took a year for BCV to sell out. Back then the minimum was 230 points, give or take 10? Now the minimum is 160 points.

Actually, I bought BCV when it was first offered, and the minimum was 150 points.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Everyone has their own opinion.....

but don't doubt the movement on the contemporary.....it will very quickly move to #1 on the desirability scale in DVC.....there is no question on that....

It will well at a much more rapid pace than anything since Beach Club.....and i would not be shocked at all if it was close to soldout by the time it opens....

Animal Kingdom and Saratoga sales will not affect the demand for a monorail line hotel....it is like an apples to oranges scenario.....



Realize that my take isn't just based on the habits of the DVCers......there is a much more attractive selling angle to having a "walt designed" location next to the flagship park than they've ever had before.....

the economy might slow sales some....as the overtaxed families that have recently gobbled up units at Saratoga and Animal Kingdom are going to very quickly understand the mistake they've made....and DVC sales might go back towards the older circuit that ended up purchasing large amounts of OKW, HHI, VB, and Boardwalk....

but i don't think anything short of a complete crash will kill the contemp sales.....


If you build with a monorail and a castle out the window....they will buy

Disney knows this.....they are selling rooms at the polynesian and contemporary for $415.00 that sold at $29.00 a night in 1971....

that's way more than normal inflation....

to quote Billy Clinton (sorta) "It's the Castle, stupid!"

 

[tjkraz]

...move to #1 on the desirability scale in DVC.....there is no question on that....

Well, I do think there is SOME question...mainly due to the points.

Among non-owners, the most commonly available category will be the Lake View (which represents about 70% of the resort.) In Adventure Season, here's how the BLT Lake View stacks up against others for a Two bedroom villa:

BLT Lake: 36
OKW: 22
BWV Standard: 24
AKV Standard: 23
AKV Savanna: 30
BCV / BWV Pre: 30

That's quite a premium to pay just for the proximity to the Magic Kingdom.

When you consider the reasons why many people have embraced other resorts (BCV: SAB and proximity to Epcot; BWV: Proximity to parks and Standard View class; OKW: low points and large rooms; AKV: Savanna) I'm not sure that they will automatically abandon their Homes just to pay more--in some cases a LOT more--to stay at BLT.

Animal Kingdom and Saratoga sales will not affect the demand for a monorail line hotel....

Certainly they WILL impact BLT sales.

If DVC were selling BLT and BLT alone, then it would represent 100% of their sales. But with AKV currently available and two others set to come on line, some percentage of sales will absolutely go to those other locations.

I won't claim to know what the percent might be. Could be 5% or 95% or somewhere in between.

Regardless of the BLT's general appeal, there will always be some number of buyers who prefer the Savanna setting of AKV or the treehouses at Saratoga Springs.

I understand your later comment about people paying $400 per night for the Contemporary and other Monorail resorts. But realize that there are also people paying $350 per night for the Beach Club, Yacht Club, BoardWalk, Animal Kingdom Lodge, and many other Disney resorts. And those aren't second choice resorts for people--they are destinations chosen based upon personal preference.

...a much more attractive selling angle to having a "walt designed" location next to the flagship park than they've ever had before.....

I don't believe Walt had much to do with designing the Contemporary or any of Walt Disney World. After all, he bought that Florida land to build his Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow.