I found this article this morning.
Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2004
March 9, 2004 Release (Next Update: April 8, 2004)
Gasoline Outlook (Figures 1 to 3)
Gasoline inventories remained tight and crude oil prices rose again in February. The prospects for oil prices diminishing significantly prior to the driving season have weakened, and there is a high likelihood of additional gasoline price increases this spring. Even if unexpected significant refinery or pipeline disruptions are avoided, national monthly average regular gasoline pump prices are projected to reach a peak of about $1.83 per gallon this spring. Summer (April to September) gasoline prices are now expected to average about $1.74 per gallon this year. This would be a record in nominal dollar terms and the highest inflation-adjusted summer average since 1985. For 2004 as a whole, national regular gasoline pump prices are now expected to average $1.67 per gallon, 10 cents higher than our previous projection. About half of the increase reflects higher crude oil prices, with the remainder reflecting the impact of low inventories, robust demand, and uncertain availability of gasoline imports.
Two factors that could reduce the risk of sharply higher pump prices would be a more rapid decline rate for crude oil prices than currently expected and solid improvement in the availability of gasoline import volumes from those seen so far this year.
