What is the highest number of points you think VDH will sell in a month? (Likely in May or June)

[ark101]

I have seen many posts where people wither think VDH will sell spectacularly for a multitude of factors like location, limited DVC in west coast etc. or poorly because of higher price, additional tax etc.
Info to help you poll:
Someone speculated each unit consists of 50k points and contracts are being sent out for 1H this evening (5/3) starting 1B yesterday morning (5/2) (1A set aside likely). That seems high to me personally so I am not putting too much weight into the math there.
From what I read online, the highest points so far in a month was the month after VGF went on sale and around 365k points. That was a while ago and VGF did ~264.5k while AKV did 121k. Will VDH beat that record or sizzle out after the initial frenzy (I contributed to the frenzy lol)

 

[ehh]

Thread title is two months and poll title is one month. Which is it?

 

[ehh]

Also, we can figure out how many points are in a unit if a buyer can post the % their deed cites and how many points they bought, then divide one by the other.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I voted 500k, based on the thread title (2 months). I can see a little over 8k points per day on average, with a huge front end load obviously.

Changed to 250-300k.

 

[ark101]

Thread title is two months and poll title is one month. Which is it?

I changed the poll from 2 months to highest in a month so people don’t have to guess 2 months and math. Couldn’t change title unfortunately.

 

[ark101]

Also, we can figure out how many points are in a unit if a buyer can post the % their deed cites and how many points they bought, then divide one by the other.

Disney could set aside units though and sell say 1 B and then 1H instead of sequentially

 

[DonMacGregor]

I changed the poll from 2 months to highest in a month so people don’t have to guess 2 months and math. Couldn’t change title unfortunately.

You can change thread titles.

 

[ark101]

You can change thread titles.

Thanks. Looked again and changed it. I didn’t see the option on desktop but found it on mobile.

 

[ehh]

Disney could set aside units though and sell say 1 B and then 1H instead of sequentially

Sorry, I should have been clearer/more expansive.

We can figure out the points in a single unit with this process then repeat it for each unit. Between DISers we should have decent inventory of which ones are being sold and how big those units are, with just a little participation. I’ve already seen mention of 1B, 1C, and 1H.

What we would have to assume is sell-through is nearly 100% before going to the next unit.

 

[Spivey378]

About 350.

 

[ark101]

Sorry, I should have been clearer/more expansive.

We can figure out the points in a single unit with this process then repeat it for each unit. Between DISers we should have decent inventory of which ones are being sold and how big those units are, with just a little participation. I’ve already seen mention of 1B, 1C, and 1H.

What we would have to assume is sell-through is nearly 100% before going to the next unit.

For 1H, 90 points = 0.1592%

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I wouldn’t worry too much about unit numbers, Disney traditionally made a different unit for each UY and didn’t sell them sequentially as a result.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

It will be interesting to see if we can even get monthly sales. OC California isn’t as easy as OC Florida to pull data down from.

 

[ehh]

For 1H, 90 points = 0.1592%

Perfect. Based on this, 1H is approximately 56,500 points.

Not all units are the same, a post I found about 1B indicated it was either ~45k or ~90k (they bought a split contract and it wasn’t clear if they combined their % ownerships).

As @Epcot Forever Forever mentions it might be hard to dig up sales stats. I wonder if we could back into it by tracking the units showing up in deeds.

Not trying to derail your thread, wonder if it might be good to spin up another specifically for unit tracking. I guess we’ll need UY as another data point in that thread.

 

[Matty B13]

DVC seems to always follow the economy, so I think people will be a little conservative with dropping $30k on a timeshare right now.

 

[Dobermanns]

Perfect. Based on this, 1H is approximately 56,500 points.

Not all units are the same, a post I found about 1B indicated it was either ~45k or ~90k (they bought a split contract and it wasn’t clear if they combined their % ownerships).

As @Epcot Forever Forever mentions it might be hard to dig up sales stats. I wonder if we could back into it by tracking the units showing up in deeds.

Not trying to derail your thread, wonder if it might be good to spin up another specifically for unit tracking. I guess we’ll need UY as another data point in that thread.

My 150 split into 2 contracts:
100 points: 0.2092% in 1C
50 points: 0.1102% in 1B

 

[kilik64]

Futile exercise cause how are you gonna find out the results? Dvcnews.com doesn’t report ca numbers.

 

[ark101]

Hopefully someone will.

 

[eandesmom]

For 1H, 90 points = 0.1592%

For 1H, 75 pts = 0.13327%

 

[Amyunder]

For 1H, 75 pts = 0.13327%

1J 80 points June UY .1356%