Ok, I'm going to throw a wrench into this subject, I've been considering purchasing a deluxe instead of premium AP, since we don't rent a car, we always have to fly (coming from AK). Anyhoo, we were going to buy 5 or 6 day park hoppers for our visit the end of May/first week of June. I was going to have us staying offsite for the first 4 nights, and then 2 nights at one of the onsite hotels, maybe PPH concierge (we did this last year and it was great for our family) but maybe if we get a good enough discount with an AP we could stay 3/3 or something like this? We are also Disney Visa holders, and we get 10% discount at certain restaurants, but not all, whereas with the AP it looks we would get it at most of them!
The problem I'm facing is, will it still be worth it if they come out with the "5 for 3" deal that they had last year? I would only be buying 1 AP, btw...the other thing to consider is that there is a blackout date for one of the days we'd be there, which I was told that I could just pay $40 for the day for myself.
Opinions welcome!
OK. Here are some numbers.
5-day pass = $211
Deluxe AP = $329
Premium AP = $459
Difference between 5-day and deluxe = $118
Difference between 5-day and premium = $248
Blockout tickets are currently $50, not $40 or $45. So if you need to purchase a blockout ticket, the difference between 5-day and deluxe becomes: $168
Deluxe has 10% discount at most food places in the parks and Disney hotels (exceptions include the Mint Julep bar, ice cream places, and food carts). Deluxe also receives a 10% discount on most park merchandise through the end of this calendar year. This does include photopass pictures/CDs, candy shop purchases, ride photos, and places at most of the in-park stores and World of Disney and D-Street in DtD. It does not include the silhouettes done at the silhouette studio, the crystal shops, and a couple other places. Deluxe passholders also get various discounts in DtD, most often 10% off.
Premium has 15% discount at the food places in the parks and 20% discount on the merchandise with the same restrictions as noted above. The DtD discounts are the same regardless of pass type.
From what you were saying it sounds like the following may be true:
You will not be using this pass for more than one Disney trip.
You may not take advantage of AP hotel discounts.
You will not be using the parking benefit.
That means to break even on the purchase of a Deluxe pass, you need to spend $1680 in the parks and in downtown Disney on food and merchandise.
To break even on the purchase of a Premium pass, you need to spend between $1240 and $1653 on food and merchandise in the parks and/or the Disney stores in DtD (I've left the lesser discounted places in DtD out of this equation for simplicity). The $1240 represents merchandise spending only. The $1653 represents food spending only. You will spend on a combination of these items, hence the "break-even" range in this case since food and merchandise have different % off discounts.
If you decide to start with your hopper and upgrade to a pass on your blockout day, then that changes your spending breakeven point to $1180 after you get the AP.