what are my chances at Poly and BCV in February?

[Lisa F]

Hey all,
planning ahead to my February 2018 trip... my son has his school break the week AFTER president's week (so the week after everyone else is traveling) but we will be flying in super early the Friday at the tail end of that break and I'm looking to book a Friday and a Saturday in a MK area studio. Fell in LOVE with the Poly last time and would like to stay there again with a second choice being BLT. Anyone have an idea of what my chances might be? I'm hoping not as terrible as I imagine since the higher points might send people home a bit early (wishful thinking? lol).

That sunday night (after most of the winter breakers are gone) I want to move to a 2 bedroom as my parents will be joining us for a night before the cruise. I will book at my home resort of BWV at 11 months but I'd really prefer BCV because I'd like to take them to yachtsman for dinner that night and access is a biy easier (really no other reason and I am on the fence about it given that I should be able to get a BW View booked at 11 months out for that night, which might be nicer to have than proximity to yachtsman). Any thoughts on my chances on a dedicated 2br at 7 months for an expensive higher season sunday after the break? Also will all of the rooms at BCV be done by then? (are they already? I am finding a lot of pictures and videos of the old rooms and not much about the renovated ones!)

I know there are people who pay attention to this sort of thing. Any help setting my expectations (I know nothing is a given, just looking for trends!) would be great.

We are doing the Monday - Friday Disney Dream and I want a MK area studio for the night after our cruise as well (planning to do the MK during the day) so I'm hoping that a friday night when nothing else is going on (first weekend of March) would also be relatively easy to score. I'd take ANY MK resort but my pref is probably BLT for ease of access to MK.

Thanks for any help, I will know in about 5 months but I need to know NOW!

 

[BillPA]

Read this post:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

 

[Lisa F]

Read this post:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

awesome information. Book marking that, thank you so much!!!!

 

[Lisa F]

no info for Poly though. Anyone have any anecdotal evidence?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The worry I would have is I think that runs you into Princess Weekend on one end of your trip.

 

[Lisa F]

The worry I would have is I think that runs you into Princess Weekend on one end of your trip.

Ooh thanks, I had forgotten that. Going to have to wait and see, I'm guessing lots will be wanting the friday and saturday nights because of that. I'm hoping I scan score something somewhere at MK for that night, otherwise uber it is. Will definitely be booking backup at the home resort regardless.

 

[jerseyduke]

Poly information is going to be unreliable right now, because as time goes on the gap between the percentage declared vs. percentage sold will shrink, which affects availability. Right now the Poly is often very wide open at 7 months, but, 75% of it may be declared into inventory, while only 50% is sold, and those numbers will change. (I am a little out of the loop, not sure if poly is fully declared, so it may be possible they also declared more into inventory, widening the gap for a time)

If it is of interest to you, I think the Villas at Copper Creek may also be an option that has good 7 month availability, for the same reason as above, its likely 40% will be declared, while only 15% sold. It is not the monorail, but you can grab a boat to MK.

Again, all this is speculation.

 

[Lisa F]

Poly information is going to be unreliable right now, because as time goes on the gap between the percentage declared vs. percentage sold will shrink, which affects availability. Right now the Poly is often very wide open at 7 months, but, 75% of it may be declared into inventory, while only 50% is sold, and those numbers will change. (I am a little out of the loop, not sure if poly is fully declared, so it may be possible they also declared more into inventory, widening the gap for a time)

If it is of interest to you, I think the Villas at Copper Creek may also be an option that has good 7 month availability, for the same reason as above, its likely 40% will be declared, while only 15% sold. It is not the monorail, but you can grab a boat to MK.

Again, all this is speculation.

yeah, but the speculation is half of the fun. It's true, we could give that new resort a try potentially. It is easier (or more pleasant at least) than attempting to get back to the BWV at 11pm. I HATE buses to be honest, I never take them at disney (or elsewhere). that said if I am planning a PPO BoG breakfast I am thinking that even though I LOVE the poly I should maybe prioritize BLT... I'm not sure if they are still having monorail issues there but I hate being at the mercy of transport when I have to get somewhere... the luxury of just being able to walk to the MK might be worth it and maybe I will attempt to get the poly for that friday night on our last MK day with less pressure... although to be honest that night is going to be a "sleep only" situation, though breakfast at kona might be nice before we leave too.

So many decisions and then the best laid plans... lol. I remember when it was just OKW and BWV and all I wanted was BWV.

 

[drusba]

The Princess Half marathon weekend is the highest DVC demand time during the otherwise low to moderate demand season that runs from mid-Jan to late Sep. For that weekend for 2017, the Poly studios, both stand and LV, were gone for the Thurs and Fri night before 7 months out, the Sat disappeared early morning 7 months out from the Sat. The other MK resorts, BLT and VGF, lost the Thurs through Sat for studios in all view categories before 7 months out from the Thurs. BCV studios were also gone for the Thurs through Sat before 7 months out from the Thurs.

As to getting a 2BR for the Sunday night, BCV, BWV pool/garden view, BLT theme park and lake view, and VGF were open for that night at 7 months out.

 

[Lisa F]

The Princess Half marathon weekend is the highest DVC demand time during the otherwise low to moderate demand season that runs from mid-Jan to late Sep. For that weekend for 2017, the Poly studios, both stand and LV, were gone for the Thurs and Fri night before 7 months out, the Sat disappeared early morning 7 months out from the Sat. The other MK resorts, BLT and VGF, lost the Thurs through Sat for studios in all view categories before 7 months out from the Thurs. BCV studios were also gone for the Thurs through Sat before 7 months out from the Thurs.

As to getting a 2BR for the Sunday night, BCV, BWV pool/garden view, BLT theme park and lake view, and VGF were open for that night at 7 months out.

Thanks so much. Wondering if I should flip flop my plans a bit and just plan to stay at BWV for friday and saturday nights (do AK on Friday and Epcot on Saturday) and then try to get either BLT or VGF for sunday night. In either case I will be booking two studio nights for friday and saturday and a 2BR for the sunday. Honestly wondering if I should be booking the previous saturday to the following sunday to get the standard view then cancel off the front end of the week and make my 2br...

Do you have any data on whether the standard views were gone even before the window opened for them for the weekend only vs. the entire week before? Or are you just checking at 11 and 7 month windows generically?

Thanks for the help!

I guess I could always book 2 - 2 br reservations and just waitlist the studio and see in which direction to go. Might be nice to spend a night in the luxurious VGF though! Also there is the new wilderness lodge thing too which might maybe make things open up if people want to try out the new place (I would guess most likely at BLT)

 

[drusba]

If you want standard studios at BWV, i would do that booking for a week and then drop days. Prior to 2018, BWV standard view studios usually had an 11 month booking issue many times during the high DVC demand season that runs from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan, but never had an 11 month booking issue for any time during the low to moderate demand season that runs from the Monday after marathon weekend in Jan to late Sep. However, I have now seen BWV srtandard studios disappear very quickly at 8 a.m. exactly 11 months out for four of the days between Jan 8 and 23, 2018 In other words, it appears BWV standard has gottern worse and now has the 11 month booking problem even during the low to moderate demand season. As a result, I would plan on doing whatever you can to book those Feb dates you want in a BWV studio before 11 months out from the Friday of the Princess half marathon weekend.

 

[Lisa F]

If you want standard studios at BWV, i would do that booking for a week and then drop days. Prior to 2018, BWV standard view studios usually had an 11 month booking issue many times during the high DVC demand season that runs from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan, but never had an 11 month booking issue for any time during the low to moderate demand season that runs from the Monday after marathon weekend in Jan to late Sep. However, I have now seen BWV srtandard studios disappear very quickly at 8 a.m. exactly 11 months out for four of the days between Jan 8 and 23, 2018 In other words, it appears BWV standard has gottern worse and now has the 11 month booking problem even during the low to moderate demand season. As a result, I would plan on doing whatever you can to book those Feb dates you want in a BWV studio before 11 months out from the Friday of the Princess half marathon weekend.

Thanks again. I just checked the point chart and it looks like only a 2 point difference per night for friday and saturday, hardly worth worrying about. do BW views go as quickly? i've never had one in all these years (I either booked early enough for a standard or too late for a standard or BW view). It does not matter that much but it might be nice to have a view our first night.

 

[drusba]

^To date boardwalk view studios at BWV have never filled at exactly 11 months out during that mid-Jan to late Sep low to moderate season. They do fill at or sometimes even before exactly 8 a.m. at 11 months out at times during the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan but not as much as standard does. Unlike standard view, there is no indication boardwalk view is changing its pattern of being open beyond 11 months out during the low to moderate season is changing -- it is still open now for Jan 8, 2018, the Monday after marathon weekend, and days thereafter.

 

[Lisa F]

^To date boardwalk view studios at BWV have never filled at exactly 11 months out during that mid-Jan to late Sep low to moderate season. They do fill at or sometimes even before exactly 8 a.m. at 11 months out at times during the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan but not as much as standard does. Unlike standard view, there is no indication boardwalk view is changing its pattern of being open beyond 11 months out during the low to moderate season is changing -- it is still open now for Jan 8, 2018, the Monday after marathon weekend, and days thereafter.

thanks so much! you really helped me figure out my strategy. I know it is still kind of far out but only about a month til I can make my BWV stuff... It's great to know what to expect.