WAY TO Early Riviera Price per Point Guesstimate

[Turn the Page]

I know this thread has been dead for nearly two months but I'm bringing it up again anyway.

I know the biggest speculation on the price seems to be on whether the gondola access will equate to monorail access or be more like bus or boat access. However, the monorail is exclusive to the three resorts on the monorail loop, all deluxes and the most expensive deluxes on property at that. The gondola, though a factor I am nearly giddy with excitement about, will not be exclusive to RR or even a select few deluxe resorts. It's going to be shared with two value resorts and a moderate. Wouldn't that cut down on the cost per point a bit?

 

[tjkraz]

I know this thread has been dead for nearly two months but I'm bringing it up again anyway.

I know the biggest speculation on the price seems to be on whether the gondola access will equate to monorail access or be more like bus or boat access. However, the monorail is exclusive to the three resorts on the monorail loop, all deluxes and the most expensive deluxes on property at that. The gondola, though a factor I am nearly giddy with excitement about, will not be exclusive to RR or even a select few deluxe resorts. It's going to be shared with two value resorts and a moderate. Wouldn't that cut down on the cost per point a bit?

It's fun to speculate, but at the end of the day, even Disney will be guessing at what the market will bear.

Price per point will be whatever standard rate is at the time. If we're looking at fall 2019, IMO there will probably be at least 2 more price increases over the next 18 months, each in the $6-8 range.

Point charts are where Disney is just throwing darts. Frankly, I don't think the fact that the gondola also services "value" resorts will really factor into it. Nightly costs may be less than Poly/VGF/BLT, but I don't think it will be significantly less. With Star Wars land a 5 minute sky ride away from the resort, I think they'll push the envelope. With something like DVC, you aren't buying into a single destination for 50 years. Even if some potential buyers are moderately turned-off by the nightly cost of Riviera, DVC will sell them on the potential to stay at 14 other locations.

If all else fails and sales happen to start slow, they'll use discounting to goose the price. Which makes Disney more money:

200 points for a week in a Studio x $180 per point
180 points for a week in a Studio x $200 per point

Obviously the answer is the same. But setting the points high has the greatest potential to benefit Disney. What they'd really like to happen is 200 points for a week x $200 per point.

 

[Ben E N]

I know this thread has been dead for nearly two months but I'm bringing it up again anyway.

I know the biggest speculation on the price seems to be on whether the gondola access will equate to monorail access or be more like bus or boat access. However, the monorail is exclusive to the three resorts on the monorail loop, all deluxes and the most expensive deluxes on property at that. The gondola, though a factor I am nearly giddy with excitement about, will not be exclusive to RR or even a select few deluxe resorts. It's going to be shared with two value resorts and a moderate. Wouldn't that cut down on the cost per point a bit?

I think they are upgrading the niceness of AoA and Pop to not be a top tier resort, but not a bottom tier, either. I see Disney moving to a 5 tier system, with All Stars at 1, Pop and AoA at 2, Coronado at 3, Caribbean Beach at 4, Port Orleans being 3 or 4, and the deluxes being 5.
This would make Riviera attached to higher than "low" tier hotels, but still not on the same level as deluxes.
Another issue it suffers is its direct views. Even though VGF has to share a monorail with plenty of other people, they have a beautiful view of the castle and the seven seas lagoon, featuring the EWP. Riviera will not have that, and will be lacking the walk to the resort feature of BLT, BWV, and BCV.
I see the pricing there being similar to what CCV is asking. It will have a lot in common with it. Close to parks, but not too close. Nice, but not 100% prime, location, and I am sure what will be nice accommodations. The big advantage it has over CCV is the ability to build from ground up, so they can make some really nice rooms. I see the price per night in terms of points requirements being high, as much as 25 points per night for a studio with 2 bathrooms maybe. However, the asking price will need to be in line with, if not lower than CCV, due to the limitations mentioned above. The exact asking price at time of release depends on a lot, but I would follow what CCV is asking for to get a general idea of what Rivera will start off at.

 

[Turn the Page]

I think they are upgrading the niceness of AoA and Pop to not be a top tier resort, but not a bottom tier, either. I see Disney moving to a 5 tier system, with All Stars at 1, Pop and AoA at 2, Coronado at 3, Caribbean Beach at 4, Port Orleans being 3 or 4, and the deluxes being 5.
This would make Riviera attached to higher than "low" tier hotels, but still not on the same level as deluxes.
Another issue it suffers is its direct views. Even though VGF has to share a monorail with plenty of other people, they have a beautiful view of the castle and the seven seas lagoon, featuring the EWP. Riviera will not have that, and will be lacking the walk to the resort feature of BLT, BWV, and BCV.
I see the pricing there being similar to what CCV is asking. It will have a lot in common with it. Close to parks, but not too close. Nice, but not 100% prime, location, and I am sure what will be nice accommodations. The big advantage it has over CCV is the ability to build from ground up, so they can make some really nice rooms. I see the price per night in terms of points requirements being high, as much as 25 points per night for a studio with 2 bathrooms maybe. However, the asking price will need to be in line with, if not lower than CCV, due to the limitations mentioned above. The exact asking price at time of release depends on a lot, but I would follow what CCV is asking for to get a general idea of what Rivera will start off at.

I am personally of the opinion that it will be priced similarly to CCV, both in points cost and price per point, but that is really speculation and wishful thinking on my part.

 

[tjkraz]

I think they are upgrading the niceness of AoA and Pop to not be a top tier resort, but not a bottom tier, either. I see Disney moving to a 5 tier system, with All Stars at 1, Pop and AoA at 2, Coronado at 3, Caribbean Beach at 4, Port Orleans being 3 or 4, and the deluxes being 5.

I think you're putting way too much thought into it. Even when Disney heavily marketed Value/Moderate/Deluxe, there were always variations from property to property.

Those labels mostly related to resort style & amenities but consider the difference between Stormalong Bay vs feature pools at CR or WL. Look at the disparity of hotel rack rates between the likes of Poly vs Contemporary vs Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Bottom line is Disney will charge whatever the market will bear. I'm sure Disney will try to goose pricing on POP when the gondola goes into service. But if customers don't buy into it, Disney will have to adjust. It's not worth trying to squeeze every resort into a specific bucket.

 

[Ben E N]

I think you're putting way too much thought into it. Even when Disney heavily marketed Value/Moderate/Deluxe, there were always variations from property to property.

Those labels mostly related to resort style & amenities though there were always variations like Stormalong Bay vs feature pools at CR or WL. Look at the disparity of hotel rack rates between the likes of Poly vs Contemporary vs Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Bottom line is Disney will charge whatever the market will bear. I'm sure Disney will try to goose pricing on POP when the gondola goes into service. But if customers don't buy into it, Disney will have to adjust. It's not worth trying to squeeze every resort into a specific bucket.

Yes I agree there that there will not be an official 5 tiers. That would be too much for people to think about when booking a hotel. Prices will instead fall into 5 similar buckets, close to what is being done now. CBR can be got for $30-40 cheaper per night than POR lately, even though they are both moderate resorts. We will see more of a price discrepancy than that once transportation options and upgraded rooms come into play, even if the prices differences are not explicitly laid out.

The only issue with the current system is that Pop and AoA will be attached to transportation, but will not have a sit down restaurant, so they will be a sort of "in between" resort. They could move to a 4th official tier due to this.

 

[tjkraz]

Prices will instead fall into 5 similar buckets, close to what is being done now.

Where pricing is concerned, there are already 15-20 buckets.

 

[LAX]

I think how popular Riviera is depends in no small part to how well received the gondola will be. If it turns out be a very efficient/effective mode of transportation, it will really enhance Riviera's popularity and hence its value. I agree it's still too early to even guess what the opening price will be, but I am sticking to my previous guesstimate of no lower than $200 per point.

LAX

 

[Ben E N]

Considering I thought they would only raise Poly and GFV to $195, but they went to $220, I am raising my original estimate of $182 to $187 a point. Still the highest ever initial offering.

 

[LAX]

Considering I thought they would only raise Poly and GFV to $195, but they went to $220, I am raising my original estimate of $182 to $187 a point. Still the highest ever initial offering.

You will likely have to keep revising your estimate upwards as there is at least one additional price increase (if not more) before Riviera is ready to go on sale.

LAX

 

[Ben E N]

You will likely have to keep revising your estimate upwards as there is at least one additional price increase (if not more) before Riviera is ready to go on sale.

LAX

Yep. I'll go ahead and lock in at the $180's, though. Not putting any real money on my wager, but the odds of the economy declining are just as a good as, if not better than, it continue to improve. This will negatively affect DVC sales. Total shot in the dark though.

 

[LAX]

Yep. I'll go ahead and lock in at the $180's, though. Not putting any real money on my wager, but the odds of the economy declining are just as a good as, if not better than, it continue to improve. This will negatively affect DVC sales. Total shot in the dark though.

There is no doubt a recession is likely not too far away. As long as we are not guestimating the "effective" sales price, I am sticking with my $200+ initial figure. That's not to say DVD won't offer incentives to bring down the effective cost below $200 if the sale climate at that time is not favorable!

LAX

 

[minorthr]

Based off CCV pricing and the fact that there is sometime before Rivera opens i'd guess $210 per point.

 

[Ben E N]

There is no doubt a recession is likely not too far away. As long as we are not guestimating the "effective" sales price, I am sticking with my $200+ initial figure. That's not to say DVD won't offer incentives to bring down the effective cost below $200 if the sale climate at that time is not favorable!

LAX

Should we just go over/under at $194? I seem to be in the strong minority at that low of a price, but I like rooting for an underdog.

 

[aoconnor]

I think people are underestimating Riviera. Having non-bus transportation to two parks is a big deal. Assuming they move at the speed of normal gondolas you could travel to both Epcot and DHS within ~5 minutes, plus there are constant departures (no waiting for the next bus/boat/monorail).

CCV is selling well and that only has boat transportation to one park which isn't that fast or frequent.

 

[Turn the Page]

I think people are underestimating Riviera. Having non-bus transportation to two parks is a big deal. Assuming they move at the speed of normal gondolas you could travel to both Epcot and DHS within ~5 minutes, plus there are constant departures (no waiting for the next bus/boat/monorail).

CCV is selling well and that only has boat transportation to one park which isn't that fast or frequent.

I agree people are underestimating the gondolas. However, I don't think the gondolas will equate to a price per point on par with the resorts on the monorail loop. At least I sure hope not.

 

[LAX]

I agree people are underestimating the gondolas. However, I don't think the gondolas will equate to a price per point on par with the resorts on the monorail loop. At least I sure hope not.

Why not? If Riviera is built to the level of VGF in terms of "luxury" and with potentially easy access to two parks, I would be surprised if doesn't come close to it in terms of pricing.

LAX

 

[Turn the Page]

Why not? If Riviera is built to the level of VGF in terms of "luxury" and with potentially easy access to two parks, I would be surprised if doesn't come close to it in terms of pricing.

LAX

If it is just as luxurious then sure, I would expect a similar price. However, GF has been the flagship resort since it was built. Is Disney really going to change that now? They could have with BLT but didn't. The new price for it is $29 less than Poly or GF and it is on the monorail AND has walking access to MK.

 

[wnielsen1]

CCV is currently selling for $182/pt. The Riv (and whatever CCV points remain for sale) will be around $189/pt. next year. The real question is where the Riv point chart will come out. The trend has been towards a higher point chart. CCV bucked that trend because DVC wanted the point chart to equate to BRV's point chart.

 

[iheartglaciers]

CCV bucked that trend because DVC wanted the point chart to equate to BRV's point chart.

Why was it important for the CCV and BRV point charts to match? Does that mean they would keep BRV's point chart the same when they reboot after the existing contract expires? It seems like they could make an argument that they didn't increase the CCV point chart because the rooms are small and lower capacity than BRV. Although at the same time, they could've increase it slightly since the rooms are in the main building.