A 1 in 4 chance the resort will be destroyed in 25 years??? Geez, I guess that means there is a pretty good chance my house will get destroyed along with all of South Florida. It is simply not rational to believe that VB has this chance of being destroyed. The resort took a pretty good hit by Jeanne with 110 MPH sustained winds, if not higher. There was very little structural damage but lots of water damage. We have driven much of the Florida east coast and this area was hit the hardest by Jeanne and Francis.
VB does have higher dues, primarily associated with increased maintenance costs attributable to the extreme climate as well as the smaller property size with fixed costs. Insurance rates factor in as well. but the whole state will be seeing property insurance increases, not just the coastal areas. For years, many believed that living in the center of the state meant less chance of damage. Charlie, Francis and Jeanne proved that to be very wrong.
Buying at VB to stay in Orlando is a mistake. Buying at VB to stay at VB during peak times in the future might be the right thing to do. My family has spent much of the eight years we have owned
DVC going to Orlando. Frankly, we are ready for a change, as I think some people are. We are now looking to see the rest of what DVC has to offer through its off site resorts and II. Therefore, the off site resorts could very well prove popular in the future as the Orlando based membership continues to grow. For example, my wife and I are looking forward to quiet beach vacations when the kids are out of the house. Therefore, VB (and HH) will be very attractive to us.
I read the speculation on another thread about expansion into Colorado. This would be a great off site option to provide us some vacation diversity "in house". Also, during our last trip to WDW, a guide told us that the number one II destination request was Las Vegas. That surprised us. So, perhaps Vegas is on DVD's radar??? This would certainly be in the context of "think big".