Trying to gauge the chances of landing Westin St. John

[chefconti]

Hello. I'm relatively new to the DVC (I've booked two WDW/DVC vacations) and recently put in a request for the Westin St. John for a one bedroom villa during any week of January, February or March of 2009.

I know this is obviously one of the most desirable properties to request and don't necessarily have high hopes of landing a reservation. I enjoy having my travel plans set in stone by about 6-9 months from the vacation date. So, my question is what do you think my chances are of actually landing this resort (i.e. 50-50, 25%, 5%, less than 1%...I really have no idea). And, if you were me, would you cancel the request and move forward with other trip ideas. Thanks.

 

[Laxmom]

From what I understand there are two trades within the Starwood system that are next to impossible; Harborside at Atlantis and Westin St. John. It is difficult for even the people within the Startwood system to get let alone those outside of it.

That said, go for it but have a back up plan just in case.

 

[Dean]

Hello. I'm relatively new to the DVC (I've booked two WDW/DVC vacations) and recently put in a request for the Westin St. John for a one bedroom villa during any week of January, February or March of 2009.

I know this is obviously one of the most desirable properties to request and don't necessarily have high hopes of landing a reservation. I enjoy having my travel plans set in stone by about 6-9 months from the vacation date. So, my question is what do you think my chances are of actually landing this resort (i.e. 50-50, 25%, 5%, less than 1%...I really have no idea). And, if you were me, would you cancel the request and move forward with other trip ideas. Thanks.

I agree it's a tough trade and those are the busiest times of the year. I'd say your chances of success are almost zero other than short notice. Your chances would have likely been around 1-3% had you been searching by 12 months out from your first date. If you can afford to make your plans within 2-4 weeks of travel, you'd have a fair chance of success, maybe 30-40% to get SOMETHING. Atlantis is actually a little easier overall, at least for now.

I would not cancel until you get to the point where it doesn't make sense for you. You could always book a cash rental to make all your plans and keep searching up to your cash cancellation deadline.

 

[kda]

Dean --- we've thought about trying to get the Westin mid-Oct to mid-Nov (not necessarily 2008). Do I remember that you might have predicted the the odds were fair to good for that general time of the year, or was it just wishful thinking on my part?
[I apologize for intruding on this thread]

 

[Dean]

Dean --- we've thought about trying to get the Westin mid-Oct to mid-Nov (not necessarily 2008). Do I remember that you might have predicted the the odds were fair to good for that general time of the year, or was it just wishful thinking on my part?
[I apologize for intruding on this thread]

I don't think I would have ever predicted fair to good for St. John or Atlantis but maybe fair at best. I can't emphasize enough to power of searching early, before a lot of others start their search. That's esp true for a system that bulk spacebanks as Westin often does where they give a bunch of weeks to II at one time rather than some along. This does two things for the potential exchanger. It temporarily lowers trade power of the resort/weeks in question and it tends to saturate the market. IF you are searching when this happens your chances of success are MANY times anyone who starts searching the next day after the bulk deposit. That's esp true for II who is hung up on trading like for like.