TP Estimates of FP+ Availability

[dekraut]

Hello all,

I was recently reading through the UG book 2016 and came across the charts for each park that deal with FP+ and day-of availability. It confused me a little, and I was hoping for some help in understanding the numbers.

Some attractions seem to run out earlier on busier days which makes sense to me, based on the increased number of people in the park. However, there are some attractions that seam to run out of day-of availability later in the day when the parks are busier which contradicts my expectations.

For example:
BTMRR is listed as running out between 4-6PM on slow days, 5PM on moderate days, and 2-3PM on busy days. But Winnie the Pooh is listed as running out between 6-7PM on slow days, 8-9PM on moderate days and 10-11PM on busy days.

How is this possible? The only explanation I can think of is that Disney allots less FP+ for each attraction on slower days than busier days, but I always thought they would allow a certain number per hour that stayed consistent. Did I answer my own question?

 

[hiroMYhero]

The most logical explanation would be that UG plugged in the incorrect numbers for Winnie the Pooh.

 

[wisblue]

It could also be that for a lesser attraction the FPs don't run out until shortly before park closing, if they run out at all, and the park generally closes earlier on slower days.

 

[larryz]

but I always thought they would allow a certain number per hour that stayed consistent. Did I answer my own question?

One of the beauties of maintaining more data on the guests is that WDW can dynamically allocate remaining FP+s on the day-of. If crowds are low, and/or reserved FP+s don't deplete the FP+s available, the FP+ mix with SB seats can be adjusted to allow more SB seats per hour

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

The most logical explanation would be that UG plugged in the incorrect numbers for Winnie the Pooh.

The most logical explanation is that park hours are longest during the busiest times of the year. Until recently, most 1-2 crowd levels occurred on days with hard ticket events when the parks close at 7 pm.

 

[MommyPoppins]

Is that information available with their paid subscription on the TP website or only in the book?

 

[dekraut]

Is that information available with their paid subscription on the TP website or only in the book?

I first saw it in the book, but I recently saw that someone posted a link to this blog on the TP website. I believe you can get to it without a subscription. I hope it is okay to post the link here.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/05/06/fastpass-plus-availability/


In that blog post it also answers my original question to some extent:

"A reasonable assumption would be that as crowds increase, the time when FastPass+ reservations run out would decrease. This holds up for the headliner attractions, but not so much for the lower tiered attractions. For the lower tiered attractions, the FastPass+ depletion time is more a function of when the park closes than the crowd level. The data also support the theory that Disney holds back some FastPass+ reservations for day-of guests: even if you see no availability in advance, you may find that availability once you’re in the park."