Touring plans updated crowd calendar for Jan 5 2019

Discussion in 'Theme Parks Attractions and Strategies' started by ilanakan, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. ilanakan

    ilanakan Mouseketeer

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    Has anybody seen the new touring plans updated crowd calendar for the beginning of January 2019? Any idea how 60 days prior the crowd level jumps from 6 to 10? Anything going on on that day? I've been relying on touring plans for my planning, and at this point there is no way that I can switch to another park.

    Just how good are these predictions? Has anyone been at the park on a level 10 day? just how bad does it get?
     
  2. Mrjoshua

    Mrjoshua Mouseketeer

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    From what I've read on these boards, it seems that anyone should take the crowd predictions with a grain of salt.

    It's not that there isn't skill or knowledge behind the predictions, rather it seems like there are also unpredictable driving forces: hurricanes, internet rumors, merchandise releases, special offers... etc, which all effect attendance.
     
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  4. CERS

    CERS Mouseketeer

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    If I recall correctly, around that time the WDW Marathon starts. I haven't seen Touring Plans Crowd Calendars, but I've seen others, incluidng Undercover Tourist, and they all put between 9s and 10s every day from December 25th to around January 10th.
     
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  5. NinjaCat

    NinjaCat Earning My Ears

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    We have been in the parks since Friday. Touring Plans projections have been a joke. They predicted 3s and 1s and we got 6s and 7s. I would take crowd predictions very lightly.

    Ultimately it doesnt matter. With rope dropping and refreshing fast passes we have been able to do everything we wanted without waiting in a line longer than 20 minutes.
     
  6. PrincessWithABlaster

    PrincessWithABlaster DIS Veteran

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    Jan 5 is the last Sat of NYs week. The way the holidays fall this year, lots of school districts will have that week off (ours does). Granted, that Sat is probably when a lot of the crowd will start to go home but based on this year's pattern, that day probably always should have been high.

    Since they went to the new methodology with the monthly updates, I feel like the trend is to start out low and slowly ramp up as the dates come closer. That doesn't seem helpful to me. I'd rather know the high end of how bad it's likely to be when picking my Park days and then be pleasantly surprised.

    All that said, Josh at easyWDW did an analysis of the actual wait times for the first half of this year and found that the average wait time for each ride on the worse day of the week was only 5 minutes longer than the average wait for the lowest crowd day of each week at MK. And the difference between most of the rest of the days was negligible. So once you have picked your week, it probably doesn't matter too much which day you pick. If you pick 'wrong' it's probably not going to have a huge impact other than holiday or major event days.
     
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  7. Klayfish

    Klayfish DIS Veteran

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    About as valuable as picking a number out of a hat. Don't waste your time.
     
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  8. Alison S

    Alison S Mouseketeer

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    Agreed. I've been watching their numbers this week because I am going next week. I couldn't figure out why their numbers were so low on the weekend of Nov 3rd and on Jersey week! I was sure they'd be higher (as other crowd calendars state). And I was right!
     
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  9. SaintsManiac

    SaintsManiac DIS Veteran

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    I got emails for both my March and July trips this morning. They are just tweaking things. I wouldn't really put too much stock in it.
     
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  10. NinjaCat

    NinjaCat Earning My Ears

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    I was hoping they were right, but I had my doubts throughout. I will say that Touring Plans reservation finder was helpful. Also their Lines App was good. Just stay away from the crowd predictions. Defaulting to a Level 5 everyday is probably more accurate.
     
  11. Alison S

    Alison S Mouseketeer

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    I think the most accurate prediction is:
    Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter: Crazy busy
    Any other time: Busy
    Hurricane: Less Busy
     
  12. Mambo Junkie

    Mambo Junkie DIS Veteran

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    I got several updates prior to my trip most of them better crowds. Like everyone said. Just plan. It will fall into place. This trip I just completed yesterday I went to MNSSHP on Halloween and EPCOT the SATURDAY of F&W, Marathon weekend and the beginning of Jersey Week and though it was busy and so crowded the crowds didn’t bother us and we got way more done than we expected. We got everything done at the party and only had 1 long wait for Jack and Sally. Most of the crowds for F&W were there for the F&W and the ride waits were mostly minimal. Even snagged late FPS for Test track. If I had it to do over again I would definitely do Halloween again and definitely NOT go to Epcot on a F&W marathon jersey weekend. Crowds weren’t bad but getting into the park and parking was a pain. We ended up being parked somewhere we didn’t even know existed.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
  13. soniam

    soniam Wooden leg named Smith...

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    I don't even think I would notice a crowd anymore, since we go at busy times. However, I might notice a significant lack of a crowd. I might just think the park is closing, especially since I have never been when it was less than a 5.
     
  14. Mambo Junkie

    Mambo Junkie DIS Veteran

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    We went yesterday knowing the park was closing at 4:30 and it was wonderful!
     
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  15. ilanakan

    ilanakan Mouseketeer

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    Can anyone actually tell me what a 10 crowd level means? Just how busy would that be?
     
  16. Mambo Junkie

    Mambo Junkie DIS Veteran

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    According to Touring Plans, you can expect up to a 230 minute wait for SDMT and around 30 minutes to an hour for the simplest rides. I've been there before when I felt I could not move due to gridlock and was shocked to find it was just a level 5 or 6. It will be very busy.
     
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  17. MickeyWaffles

    MickeyWaffles DIS Veteran

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    What kind of measure are you looking for?
    Walkways are crowded, lines are very long at the busier times of day.
    As always, FP+ and rope drop are helpful.

    Touring Plans has a comparison list of peak wait times at the various crowd levels somewhere on their site. Keep in mind that they are the peak line wait time estimates, not all day. Just gives you a rough idea of the longest lines you might experience at the peak time of day.

    I have been there on the slowest days of the year and the busiest.

    We will be there for a couple days at the same time as you and have been the week after New Year’s before. We expected it to be pretty busy this year with the way the holidays fall on Monday/Tuesday. Many kids will be off that whole week after New Year’s. It makes sense that holiday crowds will still be around.
     
  18. CERS

    CERS Mouseketeer

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    IF the park is actually at a level 10 crowd, you can expect wall-to-wall people at certain moments, especially during the parades. It is the only time when there is a risk of phased closures due to capacity.

    Waits will be long in general, and extremely long for rides like 7DMT and the mountains. You'll need to save your spot for fireworks and parades with plenty of time (1 or 2 hours before) to secure a good spot if you want one.

    All you need to do is be relaxed, patient, and enjoy the crowded scenery.
     
  19. ilanakan

    ilanakan Mouseketeer

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    I'm a bit disappointed. We had a very limited time frame to work with, as we are travelling from Australia, and this period is our school holidays. I did so much research before booking the dates, and knew it was a Saturday, but a 10 level crowd? OMG.

    My DD 17 has anxiety problems, especially in crowded places. Is there anything I can do to try and miss some of the crowds? Does Disney have anything that can help in a situation like that?
     
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  20. CERS

    CERS Mouseketeer

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    It might not be a 10 after all. According to undercover tourist it might be a 9. Either way, I would suggest you have Advance Dining Reservations to escape de crowds, as well as Fastpasses booked.

    Book the dessert parties for fireworks and/or dining packages so you can escape crowds and long lines. I would suggest you avoid moving around the park during the Parade so plan to go to one area before the parade starts and stay there after the parade ends.

    The only thing Disney has is special events like desserts parties, Extra Magic Morning event, and advance dining reservations or dining packages for shows or parades. If they have something else, I wouldn't know.
     
  21. cel_disney

    cel_disney DIS Veteran

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    Tell us more about where you are staying and what park you want to go to on Saturday. (Generally - all Saturday’s are at least a 7 anyway..)

    Rope Drop - be there REALLY early (like 45 min before opening) - the first hour can be VERY helpful. And have a plan of where you want to go before you arrive so you can be positioned at the right rope. (EasyWDW And TP and maybe Robo too all have good pictures on where to stand for various attractions/lands).

    Book FP for headliners.

    Take a mid-day Break from the heat and crowds. We would advise to use your 3 FP by 1pm and the reserve a 4th for after your return. But this works best if you are staying close by - mid day breaks at MK are extra long if you are driving to MK/parking at TTC instead of using Disney transport.

    Bring cell phone portable chargers. For FP /wait times and also so that your daughter can be distracted with screen time if the surroundings are too much.

    Consider upcharge events to avoid waiting for things like parades and fireworks.

    Learn about DAS and see if it’s something that would help your daughter.

    With good FP secured - we can do most other parks on 8,9,10 days having to wait in only one headliner line..MK is harder to do if your goal is all headliners.
     
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