The Numbers game (My version)

[MBTigger]

I have mentioned before that I am looking at DVC. I doubt the Blue card is in my future even though I LOVE the idea of being with the "IN" crowd. I am writing this as a "thinking out loud" bit rather than a concise post. It is long and rambling and I am only posting it because someone else might be wondering how people decide how they might buy into DVC.

A preference for 1BR units (dietary restrictions make kitchen access preferred) means that I suspect between 150 and 200 pts would be a good fit for me and DVC. 200 is a nice round number and fits in well with current incentives for Direct purchase.

From a pure "Numbers" perspective, The current incentives at Aulani for 200pts come to about $153 per point. But a blue card only needs 100 pts. If I were to buy 100 pts at the NON incentive $188 ppt and 100 resale for $100 per pt (A reasonable price for a LOADED contract. We have to compare apples to apples here). Adding that to our resale the average is $144 for a 50/50 Aulani strategy. $9 per point is $1800 on that 200 pt contract - but you don't have to go though ROFR, you have the points NOW. and you have ONE contract so everything is simple. This extra 7% in price might be worth it, especially if you want a trip sometime within the next year.

But the best of all worlds would be a SPLIT between 2 resorts. 100pts at WDW and 100pts at Aulani would allow me to get those preferred rooms or times in Hawaii one year and in WDW the next. A GREAT idea for a west coaster like myself. OKW sells for $165, but has a 2057 expiration while that means we have a 5 year difference. Our Aulani contract will last for 42 years while our OKW will last 37. To compare apples to apples, If I were to extend OKW to 42 years it would be $187 per point (I could reference other people's per year calculation - but this is MY thread!). Purchase price of a 50/50 split of Aulani resale and OKW direct is pretty much identical to Aulani Direct and Resale. But you get more flexibility and a slightly lower average MF. Probably this is better way to get that Swt, Sweet blue card...

Aye, there is the rub? What is the blue card worth? a recent loaded OKW extended contract passed ROFR at around $110. This was a LARGE contract, so lets us say a 100pt loaded contract would sell for $115. If we do the "Extend to 2042" that is about $130 for a similar length of contract for a $100 Aulani resale. On average this is $115 per point

Let us be GENEROUS and say the difference between 50/50 split and pure resale is $25 per point.That is $5,000 for a 200 pt contract. Will perks be worth that? I mentioned out dietary requirements, so we would likely only eat a few meals each visit. Even estimation a whopping $300 spent on park food (a VERY unlikely amount for us!), we would only save $30 per year - let's say 1500 for the life of the contract. We are still up by $3500 if we go used.

What about new resorts? I could sell MY points and rent out Riviera and Reflections points if I really want to stay there. That will come with a premium. Let's call that $5 per point to be on the safe side, although I suspect $3 is more likely. Would I use 700 points at Riviera or Reflections or other new resorts? That is the question.

I doubt it. Bay Lake Tower will exists until 2060, so if I desperately want MK and EPCOT access I could have it. Even now there are 1 BR units available for Spring Break there. If I NEED an EPCOT and DHS accommodation I could get 1BR at BWV or rent my point and stay 2 nights at CBR or AoA (If we plan we can make it without kitchen facilities for a while - but a kitchen makes it a whole lot easier.

I cannot travel on short notice, and specific times are chancy - so moonlight magic events would be rare. We won't be there enough to make AP's a good thing.

Here is the funny things - if I were to buy MORE points and go MORE often, the the annual pass and food discount would come into play. The convenience of new resorts would have less of a premium and I would be MORE tempted to buy direct....

 

[Sandisw]

So much to consider And the 50/50 split is something to consider.

i agree that the AP is the biggest benefit of perks, but if you don’t see taking advantage of that any time soon, it’s hard to spend extra as they could remove that perk down the road at any time.

The 100 point minimum for perks could also change down the road. Since you have a plan for staying at new resorts and are willing to do rentals down the road, then that becomes less of an issue.

 

[Soap_1984]

When I looked at it based on the new pricing I figured you'd need to do two trips a year to make the AP worthwhile. If you aren't going that often and aren't even eating at parks/restaurants frequently the perks will not be worth nearly enough to justify the added cost.

 

[ELMC]

There's certainly a lot to unpack here, thank you for sharing your thoughts so thoroughly. I'm going to play Devil's advocate here, so forgive me if it comes across as argumentative. My goal is to challenge your thinking, not demean you in any way.

I have mentioned before that I am looking at DVC. I doubt the Blue card is in my future even though I LOVE the idea of being with the "IN" crowd. I am writing this as a "thinking out loud" bit rather than a concise post. It is long and rambling and I am only posting it because someone else might be wondering how people decide how they might buy into DVC.

I think it would be helpful to reexamine your thinking here. DVC is a timeshare, nothing more, nothing less. Sure, it's got the word "Club" right in it, but that is a marketing tool. There's no "IN" crowd and you are certainly not an outsider if you buy restricted resale. Your points book the L14 resorts same as everyone else's.

A preference for 1BR units (dietary restrictions make kitchen access preferred) means that I suspect between 150 and 200 pts would be a good fit for me and DVC. 200 is a nice round number and fits in well with current incentives for Direct purchase.

So building on my thoughts above, are you really sure that direct is a good fit for you? 1BRs are typically the last room category to book at any resort. That means that you have the best chance at finding availability at the 7-month mark. This would allow you to buy the least expensive resale points and still have a great chance of finding a room to your liking.

From a pure "Numbers" perspective, The current incentives at Aulani for 200pts come to about $153 per point. But a blue card only needs 100 pts. If I were to buy 100 pts at the NON incentive $188 ppt and 100 resale for $100 per pt (A reasonable price for a LOADED contract. We have to compare apples to apples here). Adding that to our resale the average is $144 for a 50/50 Aulani strategy. $9 per point is $1800 on that 200 pt contract - but you don't have to go though ROFR, you have the points NOW. and you have ONE contract so everything is simple. This extra 7% in price might be worth it, especially if you want a trip sometime within the next year.

A couple of things. I'm going to oversimplify because there are a number of posts and threads about this one topic...don't buy Aulani. You have no booking advantage at WDW (although that might not be a huge issue) and the dues are sky-high. Plus the resale value is not strong. As for getting points now vs. waiting, I would encourage you to be a little patient. This is a 30-40 year purchase, I would advise making the wiser long term play in exchange for giving up some immediate gratification.

But the best of all worlds would be a SPLIT between 2 resorts. 100pts at WDW and 100pts at Aulani would allow me to get those preferred rooms or times in Hawaii one year and in WDW the next.

Unless you have a five to ten year track record of actually going to Aulani, I wouldn't bank on this strategy. Timeshares are sold on the vision of what could be. Timeshares are bought to fit the realities that are currently in place.

A GREAT idea for a west coaster like myself. OKW sells for $165, but has a 2057 expiration while that means we have a 5 year difference. Our Aulani contract will last for 42 years while our OKW will last 37. To compare apples to apples, If I were to extend OKW to 42 years it would be $187 per point (I could reference other people's per year calculation - but this is MY thread!). Purchase price of a 50/50 split of Aulani resale and OKW direct is pretty much identical to Aulani Direct and Resale. But you get more flexibility and a slightly lower average MF. Probably this is better way to get that Swt, Sweet blue card...

Honestly the difference between 37 years and 42 years is negligible. When Disney first tried to extend OKW contracts they couldn't get people to pay $15 for 15 extra years. I would not place any premium on purchasing anything that you can't benefit from until 2057.

Aye, there is the rub? What is the blue card worth? a recent loaded OKW extended contract passed ROFR at around $110. This was a LARGE contract, so lets us say a 100pt loaded contract would sell for $115. If we do the "Extend to 2042" that is about $130 for a similar length of contract for a $100 Aulani resale. On average this is $115 per point

Let us be GENEROUS and say the difference between 50/50 split and pure resale is $25 per point.That is $5,000 for a 200 pt contract. Will perks be worth that? I mentioned out dietary requirements, so we would likely only eat a few meals each visit. Even estimation a whopping $300 spent on park food (a VERY unlikely amount for us!), we would only save $50 per year - let's say 1500 for the life of the contract. We are still up by $3500 if we go used.

The calculation that swings people in one direction or the other is the discounts on the AP. That's what I would focus on if I were you, and do the math there.

What about new resorts? I could sell MY points and rent out Riviera and Reflections points if I really want to stay there. That will come with a premium. Let's call that $5 per point to be on the safe side, although I suspect $3 is more likely. Would I use 700 points at Riviera or Reflections or other new resorts? That is the question.

This is an excellent strategy. If your goal is to just try out the different resorts, why buy Riviera when you can stay there once or twice on rental points?

I doubt it.

Yep. You got it.

Bay Lake Tower will exists until 2060, so if I desperately want MK and EPCOT access I could have it. Even now there are 1 BR units available for Spring Break there. If I NEED an EPCOT and DHS accommodation I could get 1BR at BWV or rent my point and stay 2 nights at CBR or AoA (If we plan we can make it without kitchen facilities for a while - but a kitchen makes it a whole lot easier.

I cannot travel on short notice, and specific times are chancy - so moonlight magic events would be rare. We won't be there enough to make AP's a good thing.

Here is the funny things - if I were to buy MORE points and go MORE often, the the annual pass and food discount would come into play. The convenience of new resorts would have less of a premium and I would be MORE tempted to buy direct....

I think you have already made up your mind. If you're looking for agreement, you have it from me. Good luck finding the resale contract that best fits your needs.

 

[MBTigger]

Aulani has the best incentives right now, and the best point price to buy new. The expiration date is also closer to the lest expensive WDW resorts, making it easier to try and give them some kind of value in combination or in tandem.

Yes, the 7 month availability at Aulani is better than the WDW resorts. There will still be an advantage in getting those standard rooms that fill up first. (especially at the busiest times). It might be better to spend some time at Aulani before deciding that advantage is worth it, but as mentioned before - Aulani is where the incentives are to buy direct and is probably the easiest way to get a blue card. Plus for us getting to Honolulu is just as easy as getting to Orlando, and

Buying OKW direct would be more expensive than Aulani. Extended OKW resale contracts are about $20 per point more than Aulnai Resale, so a 50/50 OKW Direct / Resale would cost more than Aulani resale and OKW Direct especially if you take into account the 5 year time difference in contracts.

The absolute SHORT cheapest way to get a blue card is to be put on a waitlist for 100pts at Vero Beach. But Vero beach has 15-20 years less on the contract and (to my mind) that makes it hard to compare to Aulani / OKW. Not to mention super high MF...

 

[amypetecar]

consider buying 100 direct and then adding resale later. Prices fluctuate and you may get a better deal down the road?