Or they can do what they did with the reopening of Mickey's Playhouse and Play Parade and only offer it to AP holders, but everyone who happened to be able to see the show/parade. So it's a mixture of both, I guess?
My guesstimate for the Toy Story is that they'll send invitations to AP holders drawn from a lottery. Not sure how in demand it will be compared to Nemo, but who knows if they'll do soft openings. I do remember that they let park guest slip in during the previews for that. (Off the record, of course.)