Second thoughts about DVC?

[vbfamily]

Well, this isn't because there are a lot of discounts out there right now but I think it's more of a natural feeling that comes with any big decision.

DVCer's,Will you please give me your opinions if I tell you what I am thinking?

We are buying 250 pts at VB. We have gone there every year for 4 yrs paying cash. We love the resort and are total beach bums so we know that is where we should buy.

We are going in October 2003. Checking in for 9 nights on Oct. 30. in an Inn Ocean View room. This will use 141 pts. How much are those 141 pts "costing us". I'm having a hard time figuring out the true "value" of a pt. We can get 20% off if we pay cash.
(we will always be traveling in October) and one other time throughout the year)

If we ever luck out and use our pts at WDW we would only be staying in a studio. Are we really only gaining the advantage of having a fridge and little sink? I don't see any difference between a studio and regular hotel room except for the cost.

Should you only join DVC if you are going to take advantage of the 1 and 2 BR units?

I may sound like I'm babbling but last night I really started to have second thought and I know there are people on these boards who are honest enough to say "DVC may not be right for you if this is your situation".

I guess in all honesty I am a little concerned about the dues too.
With what we pay per pt and the dues that look like they will rise every year, do we really come out ahead.




I would appreciate any and all comments. If I sound like I am not making sense please let me know

 

[Regina]

It's natural to second guess a major expenditure, especially when it's not a necessity.

Every one of us has our own unique reasons for joining. What we based our decision on may or may not apply to you. It's a personal choice.

Then you add in the change in dynamics that occur as the years go by. What works now may not work 2 years from now. Trying to anticipate those needs is yet another consideration.

Ultimately, only you can decide if this is right for you.

Good luck.

 

[Lisa F]

It's natural to have second thoughts about any big decision. Have you sat down and done the math? I think that might help you out.

What are you paying per point at VB? I would take that number, divide by 40 (number of years left in DVC). If you are financing and paying interest you have to figure that in also. Then add to that the cost of dues (I always just round it to $4). Chances are you are paying around $6/point per year. What is the rate you can get at Vero with 20% off?

Also, no, i do NOT think that you need to stay in the 1 and 2 br units in order to experience DVC. We LOVE the studios, we LOVE splurging on a 1br, we LOVE taking family and staying in a 2br. To me, the beauty of DVC is the FLEXIBILITY and CHOICE. You can use whatever works for you for that particular trip. Except for high seasons I think you will be able to use your VB points at WDW (esp OKW) whenever you want to with how many properties are there now.

Lisa

 

[RobDoc]

For 9 nights- checking in on Oct 30, 2003- in a VB Inn Ocean View, the points are 129 (3 weekend nights).

If you use $6 per point- your cost would be $774 and $903 if you use $7. There is no room tax to add.

If your discounted rate is more than $111.37 per night (including tax) you are paying more than you would with DVC (at $7 per point). Even if the discounted rate is better than that, is a discount going to be available every year?

 

[Chuck S]

OK, using only the 141 points that you'll need for your ressie - and also figuring the "new" cost of $84/point if you buy direct from Disney today.....

141*84=11844 / 40 (years) = $296.1
$4.4 (dues)*141 = 620.4

Total amount for 9 nights = $916.5

If your points are resale, the amount will be cheaper.

While it may be possible to get the room cheaper with cash NOW, what do you think travel expenses will be in the future? Remember that occupancy rates have dropped substantially following 9-11. As the economy and tourism recovers, look for those room rates to keep getting higher. Plus, your discounted room rate doesn't include hotel taxes, not a "cheap" tax.

***edit*** even using the diffence in points between 129 and 141, Doc & I seem to have come up with similar figures, about $100 per night***

 

[PamOKW]

I agree that you have to think long-term. While discounts may be available today, they may not be in 5-10 years. And, even if they are, they will be 20% off a higher room rate to start with. Your costs will be pretty much locked in once you purchase.

Another consideration is availability. While it seems you have been successful in booking the off-season, there may come a time when non-members may face some difficulty in booking. That's what really swayed my purchase....I wanted to be sure I could always enjoy Vero when I wanted to, not just when there was availability.

 

[vbfamily]

It is 129 pts and not 141. I was thinking 12 pts for a weekday instead of 10.

I know a couple people have mentioned the cost of cash rooms going up but don't our costs go up, as well, in the form of dues?

Lisa F asked how much we were paying per pt. We paid $80 with the $15 MB buy back. So are we really paying $65 per pt. Lisa, The discounted rate we can get with 20%off for next Oct. is $144/nt plus tax.

I just want to make sure we have looked at it all ways. We've done the math over and over but it is hard to figure when I don't know what people consider pts to be worth. Is it $10?

Doc figured the cost at $903 at $7 per pt but don't I also have to add the cost of dues for 129 pts. onto $903. That adds an additional $563.00 which brings the cost to about the same as if we payed cash.

I still would appreciate any opinions.

 

[Chuck S]

OK, now that we have some figures:

$65 * 129 = 8385 / 40 = 209.63
$4.4 (dues) * 129 = 567.60

Total = $777.23 for 9 nights or $86.36 per night including taxes!

Your actual cost is $6.02 per point - if you use Doc's estimate of $7 per point that WOULD include the annual dues, and is a good rough estimate figure.

You're still saving $$ as members vs paying cash. Cash @ 144 per night plus room tax (I'm not sure what the actual rate is - I'll use 11% which is probably low) would be $1438.56. ($159.84 per night) Leaving you a savings of $661.33 for the entire stay, or $73.48 per night SAVINGS! Using the $7 per point estimate, your savings would be about $59 per night

 

[KNWVIKING]

With the exception of increases in dues,your cost per nite is basically locked in till 2042. I enjoy comparing all the spread sheet/break even analysis info others post,but for me it gets real economical when I try to imagine what the cash price will be in 20 years.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

My formula from your other thread It is basically the same as many people here calculate the cost of points. Some figure $10/pt because that is how much they can recover by renting them. There is just no way a cash price will beat point price at a DVC resort.

Good luck...

 

[RobDoc]

Doc figured the cost at $903 at $7 per pt but don't I also have to add the cost of dues for 129 pts. onto $903.

No, the $7 figure includes the annual dues.

 

[Lisa F]

I'm sorry if I confused you with the $10 thing. Many around here feel that is at LEAST what their points are worth, if not more. I always look at my points as exactly what I paid for them. If you do it THAT way then there is no doubt that DVC is worth it.

If you paid $65/point then the cost of a point to you is $1.65 per point per year. That does not include dues. That price will never change. The price that does go up is the dues portion, right now $4.40 if I read that correctly. So this year, the cost of your points are about $6.05 each. Dues will go up but so will hotel prices. As long as they go up at reasonbly similar rates (averaged over time) then DVC will ALWAYS cost less than even discounted rooms paid for by cash.

I hope that helps a little.

Lisa

 

[Caskbill]

Don't forget to look long term.

Today dues are about $4.40 at Vero Beach, or $568 for your 129 points which gets you your 9 nights.

Your cash rate is $144 per night, or $1296 plus tax, which equals $1439

Dues have gone up an average of about 3%/year, but are jumping about 5% this year. Let's just say they'll go up 5% every year, so in 10 years they'll be about $7.17/point. Then your 129 point vacation will cost you $925 in dues.

If the discounted cash rate also averages 5% increases each year, then in 10 years it would be $235/night plus tax, or $2343 for the 9 nights.

That's a difference of $1400 in that 10th year alone. (Compared to a difference of $871 today). The point is that the cash rates will increase dollar-wise more than DVC dues even when the increase is the same percentage.

In fact the total differences over the next 10 years will be about $8325.00, or $64.53/point, roughly what you are paying. So after about 10 years, your only costs are the costs of the dues themselves. That's when you'll really start saving.

Many have reported on this board that their figures also show about 10 years is the break-even point for this purchase. What you can save the final 30 years will be the real bonus.

Note: All calculations are based on only the 129 points. Buying 250 would have similar percentage results.

 

[jcodespoti]

here is my angle.
the amount each point is worth is dictated my the market. So are the room rates at VB. PLease keep in mind that you "lock" in the dvc rate (subject to dues increases). The price of a cash reservation at VB will probably increase more every year.
Also, in some cases (consult your tax adviser ) the interest on the loan may be tax deductable.
To me it sounds like you like VB (as well as I do) and the most important thing is thats where you want to vacation. I personally don't see you losing out on the deal but run the numbers

Joe in CT (honken' cold here tonite)

 

[Dean]

Personally, I think DVC is the best value in general looking at studios when looking from a dollar standpoint. If you are looking at a studio or Inn room off season on a consistent basis though, I wouldn't expect DVC would add any value to your options. Maybe a combination of VB and WDW might be a good fit. Good luck.