Rolling the dice for Sept '21: Free DDP vs. Room Only Discount vs. DVC Rental

[Maine_Belle]

I'm number and value crunching in preparation for our early Sept 2021 trip. The details:

• 2 adults, 2 middle grade kids
• 8 or 9 nights
• Dates semi flexible, preferably after Labor Day (Sept 9-18 is penciled in)
• Likely to stay at either a Deluxe or Mod, with Poly and Riviera being top of my personal list
• Considering a split stay between resorts

I'm now trying to cipher what is the best way to save a few hundred+ bucks.

Our timing is likely to fall during Food & Wine Festival and potentially Free Dining. It's also possible we could be looking at a 20-25% discount on Room Only reservations since it's historically quieter (and I'm hoping the crowds will be held back a few weeks for the 50th anniversary.) And then there is the option of renting DVC points to get into our top resort choice(s) for a much better-than-rack cost.

What's a budget-savvy, Excel-lover to do!?

• DVC is a decent guarantee for a good cost at a nice resort and potentially has food savings options with a 1 BR for in room grocery breakfasts and snacks. We can also save a bit with discount park tickets this route. BUT it's a done deal 11 months out- that's all she wrote, no holding out for a better deal. And I'm new to renting, so there is that stress factor.
• Free dining would def be a big money saver for us- we LOVE excellent TS food and during Food & Wine those snack credits would be great for 4 mouths. BUT the dates were SO limited this year and it sold out so fast, and we can't hold off on DVC to hit the 11 month mark to wait for Jan 2 release dates. And I worry we'll be even more beholden to scheduling and tracking, which is DH's biggest fear. (Well, that and the bill.)
• Room discounts would still potentially beat out price over DVC, and we can have Mousekeeping the whole time plus discount park tickets BUT seems like it's the biggest gamble and we'd have to hold out for a long time to know the final price.

My quick number crunching has Free DDP as the biggest savings with up to $1400 saved over DVC rental, but I'm just really not convinced I can guarantee a trip around it. Cost is a factor here, so it's not like I'm in a "we're going to stay at XYZ no matter what, so a bonus discount is just icing on the cake..." camp. What would you guys do?

 

[Maine_Belle]

PS- I'm hoping I put this in the best forum... between DVC, DDP and looking for budget options, I totally punted on where to post, ha!

 

[Farro]

Honestly, I wouldn't book counting on any discounts for next year. Free dining seems to be cut back by a little each year (along with other discounts) and with the 50th celebrations possibly starting in the summer (along with Tron and Guardians being open), not sure we will see much in way of any savings year.

 

[JimmyBean42]

Do the math and see where you save more. We've opted for free dining a number of times, but that was when Mod's still go the TS dining and not just quick. Generally with a Deluxe it can even out pending the room discount or you are ahead by $100-200 either way. I also take into account whether we would eat all those credits. It may not seem like a lot at first, but it is a lot of food. Although you may like the convenience of having meals prepaid, so FD may be the best for you. Just need to book that quick!

 

[Disneylover99]

What would you guys do?

I would just wait to see what discounts (if any) become available for your dates and then go from there.