Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[Brianstl]

Most resorts have about 10% of owners who are resale. I really don’t expect RIV to break from the norm. I even wonder if it will be a little less due to loss of resale value and force owners to hold on longer. It’s easy now to sell when you are getting a good amount back..in many cases making a profit.
But if selling RIV is always a huge loss it could have an impact on how many sell quickly.

I know I have seen that 10% number a bunch of times and once saw a pretty flawed formula used to arrive at that number. I think the number of resale points is actually much higher. There is no way Disney would put in place the restrictions at RIV they did and totally revamp the perks if the number was that low. If the percentage was that low the number of resale points on the market at anytime would be so small that it wouldn’t be considered competition worthy of using resources to address and putting restriction in place that would damage customer goodwill.

 

[CarolynFH]

I know I have seen that 10% number a bunch of times and once saw a pretty flawed formula used to arrive at that number. I think the number of resale points is actually much higher. There is no way Disney would put in place the restrictions at RIV they did and totally revamp the perks if the number was that low. If the percentage was that low the number of resale points on the market at anytime would be so small that it wouldn’t be considered competition worthy of using resources to address and putting restriction in place that would damage customer goodwill.

I agree that number is suspect and wish there were a simpler way to determine it, but I don’t know anyone who has the time to analyze thousands of deeds on the OCC’s website! Just based anecdotally on the these boards, it seems like more than 10% of owners who post here are resale owners. Nor does it sound logical that only 10% or even 20% of contracts (the estimate for OKW, I think) would turn over in 25+ years. I agree that DVD probably wouldn’t put such effort into discouraging resales if they were such a small percentage of DVC purchases.

 

[poofyo101]

just lift the restrictions and I am buying the first day

 

[Sandisw]

I know I have seen that 10% number a bunch of times and once saw a pretty flawed formula used to arrive at that number. I think the number of resale points is actually much higher. There is no way Disney would put in place the restrictions at RIV they did and totally revamp the perks if the number was that low. If the percentage was that low the number of resale points on the market at anytime would be so small that it wouldn’t be considered competition worthy of using resources to address and putting restriction in place that would damage customer goodwill.

Could be true. But, remember every resale isn’t always an uptick in resale owners. Once a direct owner sells, from that point on, no how many times it’s sold again, it doesn’t change.

My BWV contract was bought and sold resale so when it changed hands, it didn’t have any impact.

We have no idea how many contracts you see for sale are from original owners. So the number of contracts, without that info, is really not something we can use.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree that number is suspect and wish there were a simpler way to determine it, but I don’t know anyone who has the time to analyze thousands of deeds on the OCC’s website! Just based anecdotally on the these boards, it seems like more than 10% of owners who post here are resale owners. Nor does it sound logical that only 10% or even 20% of contracts (the estimate for OKW, I think) would turn over in 25+ years. I agree that DVD probably wouldn’t put such effort into discouraging resales if they were such a small percentage of DVC purchases.

I can’t even imagine how to do it. But, in terms of Disney, I don’t see it as the percentage of resale points But rather Disney trying to limit resale owners. Those are two completely different numbers.

So, it’s possible the number of points remains around that 10% to 15% of total points sold, But every contract sold on the resale market, that has points owned by a resale buyer already is another new buyer who didn’t buy direct.

As I just posted, as soon as an original owner sells, those points , no matter how many times they change hands...do no add to the percentage of owners who are resale..just changing who the person is. Those points can only become resale points once.

 

[tjkraz]

I always find the data entertaining and thanks for compiling it. Like you say, who knows what they think.

I do however run a business myself that’s a small part of a UK PLC (.5% of the PLC turnover) and we have to show growth in the profits of the business to keep shareholders happy. Riviera itself is selling well, but I’d love to know the figures behind the data in terms of profit growth or reduction , given what you have highlighted in that there has been a big drop off in number of points sold. The business person in me is saying it doesn’t look good, but I can’t be sure.

Outliers have to be factored into expectations, though.

In April 2019, Disney released Avengers Endgame which made $2.8 billion at the box office. In April 2020 they'll release Black Widow. Is Black Widow a disappointment if it doesn't earn $2.9 billion?

Copper Creek 1/2019 represented the best single-resort sales volume in 10 years. Was it realistic to think Riviera 1/2020 would match that, especially just a few weeks after opening when many WDW guests have no idea what or where the resort is?

The only certainty is that 3-4 years from now we'll be talking about how Riviera is sold out and debating the relative "success" or "failure" of Reflections.

 

[AKNOTTS66]

Was it realistic to think Riviera 1/2020 would match that, especially just a few weeks after opening when many WDW guests have no idea what or where the resort is?

Don't take the skyliner next to Riviera lightly. It pumps so many guests past Riviera. Its a massive advertisement for Riviera. Hell we hopped on the Skyliner to try it from Epcot and it takes you right to Riviera within 6-8 minutes, we just went there to get Drinks and left pretty blown away by the Skyliner and really liking Riviera.

 

[AKNOTTS66]

Looks like part of the Riviera incentives expire tomorrow. I'm guess they renew them or offer similar ones. At least the Add on incentive does.

 

[kboo]

It is funny to me how current Riv owners on the board want the sales to be great; they'd rather validate their own purchase than have poor sales, despite the fact that poor sales might force disney to lift the restrictions, which in turn would increase the value of their purchase.

If I was a current owner I'd be hoping for poor sales but I apparently know nothing.

I'm a current owner and poor sales would be concerning because I have lived through too many recessions already. The market dropping on coronavirus fears is going to have an effect; fewer travelers anywhere is going to have an effect ...

 

[Ben E N]

I'm a current owner and poor sales would be concerning because I have lived through too many recessions already. The market dropping on coronavirus fears is going to have an effect; fewer travelers anywhere is going to have an effect ...

I'm also not hoping for a recession, but a bit of a correction is actually kind of a relief to me. The more we feel that "this good economy is going to last forever", the more risks people are going to take with their money. If this isn't a correction, or if one doesn't come soon, then the eventual fall will be even harder in the future.

 

[Dizzydizney]

I don’t see them changing the restrictions. IMHO this is their new way going forward. Perhaps they will start their own DVC resale department for the new resorts. Buy your resale from us and use those points anywhere (after a resort is sold out). And maybe give people the option to rent their points out to some Disney owned rental place. They can’t be liking the fact that these outside companies are making big bucks. Look what happened when they realized that Uber and Lyft were making money transporting guests around property....the birth of the Minnie Van.

Let’s hope our country can contain this nasty virus. This is not good for anyone’s economy. I’m assuming Disneyland Hong Kong is still closed.

And good lord why would I hope for poor Riviera sales? Now I’ve heard everything.

 

[Dizzydizney]

I’m finally seeing some upward movement in my retirement funds after watching them languish for years. A leveling off would be fine...a correction due to a virus is not good for anyone.

 

[Soap_1984]

What would you consider a ton of points left? RIV will easily be at 20-25% sold by the end of Feb. and that will include sales data after having been open just 45 days. With two'ish years of sales before Reflections, I would think it easily gets to 75% sold.

And to my earlier point, they are very very different resorts that would appeal to different buyers so there should not be much cannibalization (families with young children who prefer Mk vs. older and childless families who prefer Ep and the festivals or HS and SW).

You think they measure success based on when it opened or when they started selling it. The date they incur expenses the clock is ticking. On the one hand they aren't going to do anything drastic if sales are slightly lower than expectations, but the odd notion that they don't want to sell out asap is one I cannot understand.

The numbers are not great or bad as far as I can tell. Still providing many incentives I have been emailed a few times with decent deals to add on. I personally don't discount in my business unless I'm having a weak month, but I also don't have a strategy of overpricing then discounting to make buyers feel as though they're getting some great deal.

With the markets tanking and the coronavirus threat I can see dvc having a tough time in the next few months; disney in general really. The stock has been pounded (the chapek news didn't help either) but perhaps the strategy was to make the move early since the whole market is in a freefall.

 

[Soap_1984]

I don’t see them changing the restrictions. IMHO this is their new way going forward. Perhaps they will start their own DVC resale department for the new resorts.
And good lord why would I hope for poor Riviera sales? Now I’ve heard everything.

Oh and I agree they probably won't change the restrictions, which is exactly why some would prefer the resort sells poorly; this answers your l question. Especially if you own riviera you should hope for poor sales so they may get rid of the restrictions. , why would you want the restrictions in place, it benefits no one and hurts the value of your contract. I know several people intend to pass on their contract for three generations, but the need or desire to sell its real for some and is not a negative for an owner whatsoever.

Also why would disney have their own resale to cannibalize their new developments. Once they stop developing I guess maybe, but that day is a long way away.

 

[poofyo101]

Looks like incentives stayed the same

 

[AKNOTTS66]

Looks like incentives stayed the same

Website for me still shows add on promotion ends Feb 26th. Is it anywhere else on their website? If it does stay the same thats good lol I was slightly hoping it was going to go up.

 

[poofyo101]

Website for me still shows add on promotion ends Feb 26th. Is it anywhere else on their website? If it does stay the same thats good lol I was slightly hoping it was going to go up.

I think it says on the right extended till april

 

[AKNOTTS66]

I think it says on the right extended till april

this is all I see that the main incentive is good till April 28th and the bonus expires February 26th.

 

[kboo]

Especially if you own riviera you should hope for poor sales so they may get rid of the restrictions. , why would you want the restrictions in place, it benefits no one and hurts the value of your contract.

As a direct owner, the resale restrictions don't affect me as long as I own the contract. In terms of the value of the contract - if the economy were in free fall and my DVC contract value went down to -0-, I still would have lost a LOT more in my retirement accounts, my investment accounts, and my kids' education accounts, and the value of my primary residence.

Edited: DVC is not an investment. The other things listed above, ARE.

 

[tjkraz]

The date they incur expenses the clock is ticking.

Yes, but those unsold villas are rentable as hotel rooms. Even if they discount by 40%, it's more than enough to cover operating expenses. And don't be surprised if a portion of that 40% is charged back to DVC as a sales & marketing expense. After all, there's no better way to sell people on the benefits of DVC than putting them in a One or Two Bedroom Villa for a week.

...the odd notion that they don't want to sell out asap is one I cannot understand.

It's a balance of sales pace and price. DVC could slash prices and sell "asap". There is certainly a price point at which Riviera could be 95% sold before Reflections opens. But I doubt they'll do that. Nothing wrong with having some overlap between the two.