Questions for a patient person:

[Tinker Bell]

Please speak slowly when you answer --

What exactly will make the 11-month window increasingly important over time?

Possibly related - What fraction of inventory at a resort that is not sold out is made available to DVC members?

Thank you. Feel free to reference an old thread as needed.

 

[Dean]

Tinker Bell, the 11 month window will be variably important. It will depend on unit size, season of travel, flexiblity of the member and desirability of the resort. The sold out but newer resorts will be the most difficult. HH for summer, VB for Winter, WDW for Christmas and 3 BR units in general will require the 11 month priority to be successfull. There will always be exceptions and nothing is absolute. The largest risk is haveing very specific expectations (X resort, always Christmas, GV). If you own at WDW, you can always have a backup reservation, that's what makes OKW so good since it's lower points and a large resort. IF you can't get WLV or BWV you still have a place to stay.

As for what's made available to members at a resorts that's in active sales, it varies. At OKW it was one building at a time, at VB it started out to be a whole floor which was a nightmare to DVC, I'm not sure how they did it later for VB or for BW but I would assume they took a floor and divided it into sections. They must, by law, declare units into inventory before they can be sold so there will always be excess inventory declared until they reach final sell out. If there's no inventory declared, they simply can't sell anything.

Dean

 

[Richyams]

My opinion is that the eleven month window will get more and more important over time.

I believe that the new resorts, VWL and BCV will each be returning less value for a point spent at those resorts.

They have already made a point schedule higher then anyone expected at VWL, making a point spent there return less value.

I believe, and most concur, that BCV will have an even higher point schedule yet. Meaning that for a lower number of points, you can stay at BWV and get the same sized unit in basically the same location. ie. a point spent at BCV will return less value than a point spent at BWV.

When you bring OKW into the picture and compare it against the expected point schedule at BCV, you will be able to stay much longer or for much less points...AND...you will get a much larger unit. ie.a point spent at BCV will return less value then a point spent at OKW.

Now, DVC members aren't dumb people. I think that people buying at VWL and BCV will end up making reservations at their home resorts and then switching them at 7 months.

Obviously, not everyone will do that, I realize that some people will prefer BCV and VWL at any price, but I think that since the intrinsic value returned on a point spent at those resorts is going to be lower, the competition for BWV and OKW at the seven month window will be fierce.

Those are the reasons for my belief that VB and HH owners will be spending alot of time at VB and HH...that is not a bad thing, they are both abcolutely wonderful resorts, but many people were sold those points with no intention of ever visiting those resorts.....that is a crime by DVC sales, that is what I constantly rally against.

I do believe that within a very few years, people here will be refering to me as "The Oracle"....some already do, but it will be more uniform in the future.

Of course, these are only my opinions, my opinions are generally always wrong, I basically have no idea what I am talking about. I am completely unreliable and usually just blowing wind. Anything I said is probably wrong and I apologize in advance for putting forth such nonsense....

DOC, is my disclaimer getting better?

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs", Karl Marx, pretty sick, huh?

 

[Tinker Bell]

Rich,

That was plenty slow and makes plenty of sense. Ok if I call you Rich "The Truth" Yams. I think you speak it.

Tinker

 

[spiceycat]

WDW decorates during the Thankgiving week for Christmas - OKW, BWV, and VWL are generally very hard to get for the last week of November and all of December. The reasons for this are several. First of all the parks have something special that it only does during this season. The decorations are worth seeing in the parks and the hotels. The weather is generally wonderful (last year it was a little too cold).That does not mean that you won't get luck and get a reservation at this time at 7 months. Cancellations happen all the time, but it is getting harder all ready. However this is not a crowded time in the parks. THe first 2 weeks in December are considered to be the value season.