Purchasing strategy - RIV vs wait for Poly

Your goal is to alternate 1 br. stays at Poly/Riv. every 2 years & you currently own BLT points purchased resale this year. Those BLT points cannot be used at one of your target resorts - Riviera, but could theoretically be used at 7 months at the other - Poly.
Since you are planning to use your direct points to alternate an 11 month booking w/ a 7 month booking every 2 years, I’d focus on which resort you think will be harder to get your 1 br. villa at 7 months & buy that one.
What’s working against you in the 7 month lottery is that you want longer stays, you have a child & will presumably be working around his school schedule, & you are west coast based - which IME requires a bit more planning.
In your favor - you want 1 br.s which tend to book last. That said, the addition of all of those resort studios at VGF has increased booking pressure on the VGF 1 br.s, I fully expect that the Poly will experience a similar higher than normal 1 br. demand.
The 2 resorts 1 br. comparison break down:

Riviera 6.7 million points, 2 views, 65 standard view 1 br.s + 112 preferred 1 br.s = 177 total 1 br.s.

Poly 4 million longhouse points + ? Island points (2 or 3 million or more?) 3 views - theme park, preferred, standard = 70 total 1 br.s.*

If I run the numbers, in the 11 month window there will be (once sold out) around 38,000 points eligible to book each of the Riviera’s 177 1 br.s. If I assume Poly will become a 7 million point resort, there will be 100,000 points eligible to book the 70 Poly 1 br.s. On paper it looks like Poly will be 2-3 times more likely to be booked before 7 months.
At 7 months Riviera’s resale restrictions skew things, no recent resale buyers can book there - but lots of older resale owners can & since Riviera resale buyers can only book there they’ll likely book early. Given the massive number of points both direct & grandfathered resale in the system eligible to book Riviera at 7 months, I think it will be years before we see any meaningful 7 month availability impact.
Based on those numbers, I expect getting a Riviera 1 br. to be easier at 7 months - but you’ll most likely have to settle for preferred view. Getting one of the 70 Poly 1 br. in any view category at 7 months will likely be much like getting one of the 65 Riviera standard view 1 br.s at 7 months is now.

*Projected no. of Poly 1 br.s based on this article https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/pol...egories-confirmed-speculation-on-villa-makeup btw, I love the fact that they opted for 2 full bathrooms in those Poly 1 br.s v. the split bathrooms!
Thanks for doing the math for me! Thankfully, our son is in a private school which allows a liberal amount of independent travel per year, so we at least can pick less crowded times to go. However, only 70 total 1 bedrooms in Poly (of which at least a portion will be theme park view, so super high point charts) still scares me a bit.

Where I think I am shaking out is that I'd rather take my 300-350 points every other year and stay longer in a 1 bedroom standard view at Riv (or somewhere else even cheaper at 7 months) than have my 11 month advantage be with the most expensive resort on property. I have 200 BLT points in the off year to do a shorter 1 bedroom stay or a longer studio stay, in freshly refurbished rooms. I suppose hopping on a monorail ride over for a Dole Whip isn't too bad.

And if this really ends up being a massive issue, I can always revisit buying Poly direct (or likely resale) in a year or two.
 
I ran the math using the www.dvcfieldguide.com spreadsheet - such a fantastic resource. I priced RIV at $198/pt (current 150 point cost not including Magical Beginnings) and priced Poly at $225/pt (just a shot in the dark). I also assumed the RIV contract would be worth "something" in 2066 - let's say $3,000 - so you could resell it - and assumed the dues rise at a flat 4% each year for both of them. Interestingly, it made the lifetime difference of the two contracts only a few hundred dollars apart. (Poly was more expensive.) Of course, 150 points goes less further at Poly than Riviera, too, and you wouldn't have the 2024 points to sell, either, but it was interesting to see.

Obviously, a lot of assumptions go into this, but I was surprised they landed so close to each other.

To throw a wrinkle into all of this, my husband suggested we look at VDH instead of either. We are DL locals and his logic was that as we age, we may prefer the 11 month advantage to be closer to home, especially with DL Forward approved. Back to the drawing board!
 
I ran the math using the www.dvcfieldguide.com spreadsheet - such a fantastic resource. I priced RIV at $198/pt (current 150 point cost not including Magical Beginnings) and priced Poly at $225/pt (just a shot in the dark). I also assumed the RIV contract would be worth "something" in 2066 - let's say $3,000 - so you could resell it - and assumed the dues rise at a flat 4% each year for both of them. Interestingly, it made the lifetime difference of the two contracts only a few hundred dollars apart. (Poly was more expensive.) Of course, 150 points goes less further at Poly than Riviera, too, and you wouldn't have the 2024 points to sell, either, but it was interesting to see.

Obviously, a lot of assumptions go into this, but I was surprised they landed so close to each other.

To throw a wrinkle into all of this, my husband suggested we look at VDH instead of either. We are DL locals and his logic was that as we age, we may prefer the 11 month advantage to be closer to home, especially with DL Forward approved. Back to the drawing board!
Love to hear where you land on VDH
 
I ran the math using the www.dvcfieldguide.com spreadsheet - such a fantastic resource. I priced RIV at $198/pt (current 150 point cost not including Magical Beginnings) and priced Poly at $225/pt (just a shot in the dark). I also assumed the RIV contract would be worth "something" in 2066 - let's say $3,000 - so you could resell it - and assumed the dues rise at a flat 4% each year for both of them. Interestingly, it made the lifetime difference of the two contracts only a few hundred dollars apart. (Poly was more expensive.) Of course, 150 points goes less further at Poly than Riviera, too, and you wouldn't have the 2024 points to sell, either, but it was interesting to see.

Obviously, a lot of assumptions go into this, but I was surprised they landed so close to each other.

To throw a wrinkle into all of this, my husband suggested we look at VDH instead of either. We are DL locals and his logic was that as we age, we may prefer the 11 month advantage to be closer to home, especially with DL Forward approved. Back to the drawing board!
The real solution is just to buy all 3. 🤣 I debated on VDH as well but having our home base being Disneyland, I don't know.. I feel bad living within easy driving distance and not putting it into our house instead. Then there's also the argument of would I rather own VGC over VDH. Maybe I would've done 200 RIV and 150 VDH instead of doing it all at RIV but I don't have regrets about it because we know WDW is our primary target for vacations and DL is more the place we go to after work or on weekends.

Obviously some people love going to DL as their primary choice of vacation and I get it. The parks are closer. It's the original. Disneyland is filled with the charm that Walt put into it and in many cases the attractions are just better than their counterpart at WDW. I'd ask myself are you okay with paying that transient tax and would you truly utilize the 7-11 month window when you're living down the street? If yes, then by all means buy VDH instead of Poly and RIV because DL is undoubtedly harder to book than a WDW trip. But if your primary vacation is WDW then I think there's something to be said about the value of booking standard rooms at RIV or having 11 month priority for Island Tower at PVB for the limited 1/2BRs which will be popular even though there are other options to stay at WDW.
 
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The premium for VDH just seems too high if you are considering against RIV. Only makes sense if you HAVE to stay at DL all the time. Higher starting price, AND you still have the extra TOT tax. I plan on using RIV points at VDH if/when I can and using my other resale points at VGC when/if I can. I have a 100 pointer at VGC to start with, and would bank those whenever I can get 7 months at a DL resort.
 
Love to hear where you land on VDH

Where I currently am is 200 points at all three 😂but
The real solution is just to buy all 3. 🤣 I debated on VDH as well but having our home base being Disneyland, I don't know.. I feel bad living within easy driving distance and not putting it into our house instead. Then there's also the argument of would I rather own VGC over VDH. Maybe I would've done 200 RIV and 150 VDH instead of doing it all at RIV but I don't have regrets about it because we know WDW is our primary target for vacations and DL is more the place we go to after work or on weekends.

Obviously some people love going to DL as their primary choice of vacation and I get it. The parks are closer. It's the original. Disneyland is filled with the charm that Walt put into it and in many cases the attractions are just better than their counterpart at WDW. I'd ask myself are you okay with paying that transient tax and would you truly utilize the 7-11 month window when you're living down the street? If yes, then by all means buy VDH instead of Poly and RIV because DL is undoubtedly harder to book than a WDW trip. But if your primary vacation is WDW then I think there's something to be said about the value of booking standard rooms at RIV or having 11 month priority for Island Tower at PVB for the limited 1/2BRs which undoubtedly will be popular even though there are other options to stay at WDW.

I think we are both on the same page! DL is my “hangout spot” and not somewhere I really vacation. Could that change in the future? Sure, but we own a home in OC and are pretty firmly established here so a move away is fairly unlikely, too.

I am 9 minutes away from the Mickey and Friends parking structure so the thought of paying a premium to “potentially, one day” use our VDH points at VDH makes me question it. Even though their rooms are my absolute favorite DVC rooms!

Being so close, we can also pick up last minute cancellations for a night or two by stalking. We are staying at VGC in a couple weeks, and it will be an interesting “staycation” given I can count on one hand the number of times I have stayed on property at DL.
 
Where I currently am is 200 points at all three 😂but

I think we are both on the same page! DL is my “hangout spot” and not somewhere I really vacation. Could that change in the future? Sure, but we own a home in OC and are pretty firmly established here so a move away is fairly unlikely, too.

I am 9 minutes away from the Mickey and Friends parking structure so the thought of paying a premium to “potentially, one day” use our VDH points at VDH makes me question it. Even though their rooms are my absolute favorite DVC rooms!

Being so close, we can also pick up last minute cancellations for a night or two by stalking. We are staying at VGC in a couple weeks, and it will be an interesting “staycation” given I can count on one hand the number of times I have stayed on property at DL.
If you're flexible in the future, I think as a local you have the benefit of being able to pick up a random weeknight or weekend that someone dropped last minute and you'll still be able to use direct RIV/Poly on those and just driving over there and just have it be a nice little staycation.
 
Where I currently am is 200 points at all three 😂but

I think we are both on the same page! DL is my “hangout spot” and not somewhere I really vacation. Could that change in the future? Sure, but we own a home in OC and are pretty firmly established here so a move away is fairly unlikely, too.

I am 9 minutes away from the Mickey and Friends parking structure so the thought of paying a premium to “potentially, one day” use our VDH points at VDH makes me question it. Even though their rooms are my absolute favorite DVC rooms!

Being so close, we can also pick up last minute cancellations for a night or two by stalking. We are staying at VGC in a couple weeks, and it will be an interesting “staycation” given I can count on one hand the number of times I have stayed on property at DL.

The other piece is that in a few years, or as you get closer to a point where having some VDH points make sense, the resale market will be there and it might be possible to pick up some points that are a lot less expensive than direct. Sure, they are restricted, but if the purpose is to have them for VDH, then that restriction is not as big of a deal..
 
Our guide confirmed one of my original questions today, which was that we can split payments and delay closing. Below is his exact message:
"We could do this over 30/60/90 and if incentives are better we can do a modification. This would not require a rewrite. If Poly drops and you decide you want to switch over to that resort we would rewrite the contract and move escrow over. The key is that it does not fully close prior to the opening sale of Poly.

Also we would not receive the Magical Beginnings check until after closing
."

We are going to sleep on it, but likely going to lock in a FW week 7 standard week studio at RIV in the next few days but delay the closing, allowing us to consider the summer incentives and hope some info on Poly point charts and pricing drops in the next 90 days.
 
Our guide confirmed one of my original questions today, which was that we can split payments and delay closing. Below is his exact message:
"We could do this over 30/60/90 and if incentives are better we can do a modification. This would not require a rewrite. If Poly drops and you decide you want to switch over to that resort we would rewrite the contract and move escrow over. The key is that it does not fully close prior to the opening sale of Poly.

Also we would not receive the Magical Beginnings check until after closing
."

We are going to sleep on it, but likely going to lock in a FW week 7 standard week studio at RIV in the next few days but delay the closing, allowing us to consider the summer incentives and hope some info on Poly point charts and pricing drops in the next 90 days.
Exactly! That was my plan as well with my fixed weeks. Lock it in, get on the boat, and see where the RIVer takes us!
 
Our guide confirmed one of my original questions today, which was that we can split payments and delay closing. Below is his exact message:
"We could do this over 30/60/90 and if incentives are better we can do a modification. This would not require a rewrite. If Poly drops and you decide you want to switch over to that resort we would rewrite the contract and move escrow over. The key is that it does not fully close prior to the opening sale of Poly.

Also we would not receive the Magical Beginnings check until after closing
."

We are going to sleep on it, but likely going to lock in a FW week 7 standard week studio at RIV in the next few days but delay the closing, allowing us to consider the summer incentives and hope some info on Poly point charts and pricing drops in the next 90 days.
How does this work with points being issued if you change things up later? I understand your points are delivered long before the payments are complete...
 
How does this work with points being issued if you change things up later? I understand your points are delivered long before the payments are complete...
Good question...I didn't ask that, since we aren't planning on a trip using these new points until 2025, but I wonder what would happen if you used your current year points before final closing? I assume if you fail to close, they would simply cancel any outstanding reservations.

One thing I do need to clarify with him is if we book a reservation using our RIV contract points, but then cancel and rewrite a new contract for Poly, if we'd lose the reservation associated with the RIV points. (Since he distinguished between needing to rewrite vs not.) I'm assuming yes.
 
Good question...I didn't ask that, since we aren't planning on a trip using these new points until 2025, but I wonder what would happen if you used your current year points before final closing? I assume if you fail to close, they would simply cancel any outstanding reservations.

One thing I do need to clarify with him is if we book a reservation using our RIV contract points, but then cancel and rewrite a new contract for Poly, if we'd lose the reservation associated with the RIV points. (Since he distinguished between needing to rewrite vs not.) I'm assuming yes.
I'd think that if any points from the contract was actually used they wouldn't be able to rescind or replace the contract and if they're just in reservations they'll cancel everything like you said
 
We placed our deposit down on a FW 7, standard studio at Riviera today! It is a 153 point contract.

As mentioned above, our guide set it up with a 90 day close (mid-Sept) so that we can look at summer incentives and apply if they are better (this will not require a rewrite of the contract) or if Poly news comes out and we decide to switch over to that, we can rewrite our contract with no penalty and apply any funds paid to the Poly contract.

Thanks again to everyone who weighed in!
 
We placed our deposit down on a FW 7, standard studio at Riviera today! It is a 153 point contract.

As mentioned above, our guide set it up with a 90 day close (mid-Sept) so that we can look at summer incentives and apply if they are better (this will not require a rewrite of the contract) or if Poly news comes out and we decide to switch over to that, we can rewrite our contract with no penalty and apply any funds paid to the Poly contract.

Thanks again to everyone who weighed in!
Congrats and welcome home! 😎
 
We placed our deposit down on a FW 7, standard studio at Riviera today! It is a 153 point contract.

As mentioned above, our guide set it up with a 90 day close (mid-Sept) so that we can look at summer incentives and apply if they are better (this will not require a rewrite of the contract) or if Poly news comes out and we decide to switch over to that, we can rewrite our contract with no penalty and apply any funds paid to the Poly contract.

Thanks again to everyone who weighed in!
I’m jealous, contemplating starting a contract next weekend and waiting until the 25th to see what the new incentives are and if they release any news of the poly tower.

I think I’d actually prefer the Riviera for the proximity to Epcot and the food and wine festival. I like the international gate much better.
 














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