Purchases at New DVC resorts

[Dean]

I have a question about those that purchase at any new DVC resort but I'm not truly sure how to word it, so here goes. If you purchase during the use year but get the full years worth of points, there obviously aren't enough rooms to accomodate the full allotment of points. Of course there will be rooms declared but not sold, those that use the points elsewhere and those that use MB. I guess I was wondering what the official plan was on balancing the extra points sold for any new DVC resort because there's the real possiblity of overselling the resort early on, much like the air lines.

Dean

 

[drusba]

I perceive the problem a little differently. Before they start selling units, they dedicate a number to DVC. As those start to be sold, they dedicate more. Thus, the points sold continue to be under a total that equals what it would take to occupy all the DVC units available. They also keep some control over the situation with rental units such as only renting many unsold units no more than 6 months out so they can capture those units for DVC sooner if sales go brisker than anticipated.

The "over demand" (not "oversell") problem that I perceive is caused by selling a use year that begins 4 to 5 months before the date of sale. The buyers get one allotment of points and then 7 months later get another. As they most often buy when there, they likely will not use the original allotment until the following use year. Thus, for that first real DVC trip, they have a double allotment of points--the original ones banked and the new ones issued 7 months after joining. More often than not, the urge to take an extended trip the first time as a DVC member using both allotment of points is probably too hard to resist for the majority.The result is that you have for example 1000 new members providing the demand of 2000 during their first full use year. That continues on a rolling basis as long as the resort contimues to be sold. Moreover that double type demand is virtually certain when people use Magical Beginnings--Disney will definitely use the points it buys back while the new owner will use all he has.
Even so, this should not create a problem as long as sales are evenly dispersed over time. If you get huge numbers of sales in a short period of time you will assure that availability will be significantly reduced by new members using a double allotment of points for their first trip . BW seems to be an example of this problem. Demand was steady for its first 3 years (and 30% of the points were sold). Then it took off in the beginning of 1999 and continued until it sold out in November 2000 -- a less than two year period in which 70% of all the points were sold. That I believe caused what we have seen in 2000 and now 2001--difficulty for people to get BWV unless they are using the 11 month window because many new members are reserving longer than usual trips using a double allotment of points. If my theory is correct, we should see BWV become easier to get after about mid-2002 when the vast majority of owners will be reserving using only one year's allotment of points..

 

[Dumbo]

I think the bottom line here is "based on availability". I think it is slightly possible for a "home resort" member to call within the last 6 months of his use year and told there is nothing available at his home resort for the rest of his use year. He will then have to use his points elsewhere.

Dumbo

 

[Dumbo]

Just to follow up. I think the majority of DVC reservations now being made at the Villas of Wildnerless Lodge are being made by members who don't own there. I believe that an owner there may have a hard time getting a reservation within 7 months because of all the other owners trying to check out this new resort. VWL owners will probably have to book within their 4 month priority window to get what they want.

Dumbo

 

[Dean]

All ways of looking at the same problem I suspect. I'm sure that DVC has a formal plan for acounting for these type of situations and was wondering if anyone knew what it was. In theory they are selling time that has already past but there are factors that may even the problem out (MB, extra declared inventory).

Dean