predicted wait times in advance?

[Chrislovesdisney]

In advance of a trip (e.g. we are going this summer), how accurate are the TP wait times for each attraction? The wait times for our dates are showing as shockingly low (with a small handful of not-surprising exceptions). I know about the apps once we are there, but I’m more curious right now about the advanced predictions in planning our day. Tia!

 

[hakepb]

Im not sure how accurate predictions can be beyond looking at last year’s numbers
https://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/a...-times-and-what-it-might-mean-for-the-future/
And possibly adjusting for some events.

The past several summers haven’t been the crazy busy season it used to be. (Despite most of the Internets broadcasting the old “avoid summer crowds at all costs”)

It remains to be seen if the SWGE opening at the end of August would suppress summer any more.

 

[Klayfish]

In advance of a trip (e.g. we are going this summer), how accurate are the TP wait times for each attraction? The wait times for our dates are showing as shockingly low (with a small handful of not-surprising exceptions). I know about the apps once we are there, but I’m more curious right now about the advanced predictions in planning our day. Tia!

The real time crowd sourced wait times are pretty darn accurate. We use them pretty often...and contribute to them too.

The historical wait times to try to predict future wait times are worthless.

 

[Chrislovesdisney]

@Klayfish do you use the Disney app or lines? Thanks!

 

[Klayfish]

@Klayfish do you use the Disney app or lines? Thanks!

We use both MDE and the TP lines app. More often than not we'll use MDE. We know that it's generally conservative...in other words it may post 20 minutes but the wait is actually 15. However, if we see MDE show something that seems really odd (either high or low), or it's a really popular attraction we will hop on TP to see what recent crowd sourcing says. In those cases if we get in the standby line we'll time the wait for submission to TP. We NEVER wait in lines that are more than 20-25 minutes.

 

[siren0119]

I've found the TP wait times to be pretty accurate when we are there. As far as the future-predicted wait times, it's all based on historical data that can't factor in weather or mechanical issues, or something out-of-the-norm that may happen (or happened before). So I take predicted wait times with a hefty grain of salt.

 

[monkyby87]

I don't think I would ever even consider looking at future-predicted wait times. There are just way too many factors that determine the wait time of a ride, and it's constantly changing. I don't trust many future-predicting crowd calendars either, but I'd trust those before I did a wait time.

 

[EdnaMarieMode]

As others have experienced, we find that the future predicted wait times aren't all that accurate in a lot of cases. As an example, my plan for a trip a week from now has TSMM with waits of 20 minutes or less, mid-day. I know from experience that that isn't likely. As others have pointed out, it also doesn't account for ride closures due to weather/ mechanical issues. In the case of TSL, we're just coming up on having a full year of data (which isn't particularly useful because the park also had EMH daily for months and that won't happen this year).

I mainly use the TP site's "plan builder" as a rough guide and fully prepare for things to have to be missed/ skipped.

The Lines App is useful for real-time updates when I'm in the park. I do find that data to be useful.

 

[gharter]

I don't think you can really predict future wait times as there are too many variables.
Except, FoP, SDD just expect long lines and anything less is a bonus.

On the days we are in a park, I like TP wait times to be more accurate, IF there are a lot of people posting actual wait times. If there are not a lot of people posting then the times don't tend to be very accurate.
Disneys posted wait times and the times on the app tend to be hit and miss.

 

[PerfessorZ]

They're ok enough if taken with a LARGE grain of salt. I'd liken it to being about as useful as trying to predict what the weather will be on this day a year from now.

For example, on our recent trip, I'd created a touring plan that involved rope dropping ToT and then hitting RnR standby while the rest of the RD crowd beelined for Slinky Dog Dash. Unfortunately, my TP didn't account for either EMM being added to that date AND ToT being closed for the first 45 minutes, then only running at partial capacity. I think TSM was also running at reduced capacity. All of which threw my TP into chaos and we missed out on doing ToT and TSM.

 

[holden]

We flip this around. We won’t wait for more than 30 minutes for an attraction. If the posted wait is over 30 minutes, we try later or skip it. No need to worry about wait times with this approach.

 

[Klayfish]

We flip this around. We won’t wait for more than 30 minutes for an attraction. If the posted wait is over 30 minutes, we try later or skip it. No need to worry about wait times with this approach.

You probably miss out on riding some attractions then. Often if it's posted at 30, it may well be 15-20 or less. This is especially true late at night. That's where the TP real time app comes in handy.

 

[skippytx]

I found the TP predicted wait times to be shockingly accurate on my last trip. Like many times exactly on the minute, never more than 2 or 3 minutes off either way.

Here's an example: Posted 45, TP says 33, was exactly 33 minutes from entering the line to walking onto the ride.

 

[EdnaMarieMode]

I found the TP predicted wait times to be shockingly accurate on my last trip. Like many times exactly on the minute, never more than 2 or 3 minutes off either way.

Here's an example: Posted 45, TP says 33, was exactly 33 minutes from entering the line to walking onto the ride.

On the day-of, using real-time data from users that is generally the case. Making a plan ahead of time (say months or weeks ahead of your trip) the times it predicts for the plan tend to be fairly consistently inaccurate (because there's no real way for them to predict every scenario that could happen day-of).

 

[Chrislovesdisney]

Thanks all! I know that things like weather and mechanical issues can derail any plans. I was just trying to select the best ways to divide out 2 days in MK, what we can realistically get to, and figuring out whether we’d even have hit WS yet for our pizza dinner reservation!

 

[skippytx]

On the day-of, using real-time data from users that is generally the case. Making a plan ahead of time (say months or weeks ahead of your trip) the times it predicts for the plan tend to be fairly consistently inaccurate (because there's no real way for them to predict every scenario that could happen day-of).

Good point. I haven't had my coffee yet and just glanced over the OP's post.

OP, we never try to plan an exact TP in advance. Too many variables, a ride going offline can throw everything off. We do have a general plan for each park though we like to use and those generally work pretty well.

MK we get there early and head through Adventureland and loop left. Jungle Cruise, Pirates, BTM, HM. We schedule our FP's for around 11:30, 12:30, 1:30 and we usually take a break between 2:30 to 5:30.

I do find the general forecast of the ride to be useful. Like Kilimanjaro Safari gets slammed in the morning at AK then lines go down towards the afternoon. The left side of MK is quieter first thing in the morning as most people flow towards Peter Pan and 7DMT. Things like that help plan. Also FP availability can modify our plan as well.

 

[Klayfish]

I found the TP predicted wait times to be shockingly accurate on my last trip. Like many times exactly on the minute, never more than 2 or 3 minutes off either way.

Here's an example: Posted 45, TP says 33, was exactly 33 minutes from entering the line to walking onto the ride.

Sure, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while.

 

[holden]

You probably miss out on riding some attractions then. Often if it's posted at 30, it may well be 15-20 or less. This is especially true late at night. That's where the TP real time app comes in handy.

We’re ok with that. We go at least twice a year, so missing some attractions doesn’t bother us. If we can’t get on something that we want one trip we make it a priority for the next.