Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

skier_pete

DIsney-holics Anon
Joined
Aug 17, 2006
Thank you for the research and charts! I guess your findings confirmed that I need to just pony up for those VGC points, if I ever hope to stay there!
Or waitlist. Waitlist worked for me. (As pointed out in my FAQ at the beginning these charts have absolutely no bearing on waitlisting. What I WISH they would do is have some sort of waitlist INFO charts so that you could tell for any room category and any date how many people were waitlisted on that date. Then you could use the size of the resort combined with the # of waitlisters to estimate what locations would be most likely to come through on a waitlist. Too bad they'll likely never do that. )
 

KAT4DISNEY

Glad to be a test subject
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Or waitlist. Waitlist worked for me. (As pointed out in my FAQ at the beginning these charts have absolutely no bearing on waitlisting. What I WISH they would do is have some sort of waitlist INFO charts so that you could tell for any room category and any date how many people were waitlisted on that date. Then you could use the size of the resort combined with the # of waitlisters to estimate what locations would be most likely to come through on a waitlist. Too bad they'll likely never do that. )
I would expect information like that to make the waitlists much more difficult to get.....so be careful what you wish for! ;)
 

Mumof4mice

DIS Veteran
Joined
May 4, 2018
If studios are getting harder to secure because 75-100 point contracts (bought for studio stays) represent a high percentage of sales at the new resorts, do you see 1/2BR becoming easier to book? As more resorts are added to the system, there could be more 1 and 2 bedrooms added than people who want/need them. Except for poly, most resorts have a mix of all the room types.

As we almost always travel in January and don't fit in studios (family of 6) I'm thinking I should seriously consider buying bulk points for the cheapest point cost (pp+mf)…
 
  • skier_pete

    DIsney-holics Anon
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2006
    I would expect information like that to make the waitlists much more difficult to get.....so be careful what you wish for! ;)
    Well, I would expect it would even out the waitlist. If you had 50 people waitlisting your time at BC, and 10 at BW, you'd waitlist Boardwalk. But yeah, I suppose overall it would probably make for longer wait lists.

    If studios are getting harder to secure because 75-100 point contracts (bought for studio stays) represent a high percentage of sales at the new resorts, do you see 1/2BR becoming easier to book? As more resorts are added to the system, there could be more 1 and 2 bedrooms added than people who want/need them. Except for poly, most resorts have a mix of all the room types.

    As we almost always travel in January and don't fit in studios (family of 6) I'm thinking I should seriously consider buying bulk points for the cheapest point cost (pp+mf)…
    I thought I captured that - but yes over the last 3 years - 1 bedrooms HAVE become easier to book/more available if you compare the tables from 3 years ago with ones that I had 1-bedrooms shown. I simply can't tell you what affect might have on 2-bedrooms - but it's likely it is also causing them to be more available, but I don't know the answer for that case.

    One thing I've learned is that if I had intention to buy points to stay in solely one bedrooms, I would definitely consider buying SSR points. Almost every resort has 1-bedroom availability during "low" season (mid-Jan to mid-Sept) and there is enough availability at 7 months during "high' season (mid-Sept to Mid-Jan) that I could get by.
     

    Mumof4mice

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 4, 2018
    I thought I captured that - but yes over the last 3 years - 1 bedrooms HAVE become easier to book/more available if you compare the tables from 3 years ago with ones that I had 1-bedrooms shown. I simply can't tell you what affect might have on 2-bedrooms - but it's likely it is also causing them to be more available, but I don't know the answer for that case.

    One thing I've learned is that if I had intention to buy points to stay in solely one bedrooms, I would definitely consider buying SSR points. Almost every resort has 1-bedroom availability during "low" season (mid-Jan to mid-Sept) and there is enough availability at 7 months during "high' season (mid-Sept to Mid-Jan) that I could get by.
    Thank you again for sharing your charts! Your comment that 1 bedrooms have become easier between 2015 and 2018 is what got us thinking about a change in tactics.

    We bought 2 x 200pt PVB resales, intended for connecting studio stays. One has fallen through at the closing stage. Now I'm thinking for similar amounts of money I could go for 400 SSR points. Then I could secure marathon weekend ahead of time at PVB using the 200 points, and book the rest of the stay in a 2BR wherever, using SSR points.
     

    KAT4DISNEY

    Glad to be a test subject
    Joined
    Mar 17, 2008
    Well, I would expect it would even out the waitlist. If you had 50 people waitlisting your time at BC, and 10 at BW, you'd waitlist Boardwalk. But yeah, I suppose overall it would probably make for longer wait lists.
    .
    That's not exactly my line of thinking - I actually think a lot of people don't bother to waitlist because they think it will never fill. If they saw there were only 1 or 2 waitlists then more would start waitlisting. But then I also think less people used to try changing to certain resorts at 7 months and that online booking has attributed to some of the tightening up at that point. People can see there's a room so they figure they'll try and book it where as before you had to quiz a CM once you hit that window. There's other things to that but I do think online visibility added to it.
     

    skier_pete

    DIsney-holics Anon
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2006
    That's not exactly my line of thinking - I actually think a lot of people don't bother to waitlist because they think it will never fill. If they saw there were only 1 or 2 waitlists then more would start waitlisting. But then I also think less people used to try changing to certain resorts at 7 months and that online booking has attributed to some of the tightening up at that point. People can see there's a room so they figure they'll try and book it where as before you had to quiz a CM once you hit that window. There's other things to that but I do think online visibility added to it.
    Those are all good points - so probably better not to have it. I have never really tried waitlisting in any serious amount - only 1-3 day stretches, but the couple times I have they DID eventually come through. One of these years I'll try it more seriously.
     

    WillowRain

    You can find me at Animal Kingdom!
    Joined
    Dec 2, 2014
    The 2 bedroom availability could be because of rentals. We stayed at BLT in Jan, and saved over half what we would have paid Disney direct reservation. We split the cost between my family, my mom and sister. It would have cost more to stay in a studio cash too. At some point, Disney will catch on to this and do something about it, I'm sure.
     

    Cyberc1978

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 19, 2016
    The 2 bedroom availability could be because of rentals. We stayed at BLT in Jan, and saved over half what we would have paid Disney direct reservation. We split the cost between my family, my mom and sister. It would have cost more to stay in a studio cash too. At some point, Disney will catch on to this and do something about it, I'm sure.
    Disney can’t deny owners from renting, but they can limit it by reducing their own prices(not gonna happen) :-)
     

    WillowRain

    You can find me at Animal Kingdom!
    Joined
    Dec 2, 2014
    Disney can’t deny owners from renting, but they can limit it by reducing their own prices(not gonna happen) :-)
    But can't they at some point deny renting? If they realize how much people are saving and not spending with them? I mean, I guess if you budget 15k to spend on a trip, you would then spend the room savings elsewhere, but for some they don't see it that way.
     

    Cyberc1978

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 19, 2016
    But can't they at some point deny renting? If they realize how much people are saving and not spending with them? I mean, I guess if you budget 15k to spend on a trip, you would then spend the room savings elsewhere, but for some they don't see it that way.
    My understanding is that renting is part of the DVC declaration. From what I read Disney have already limited the number of rentals an owner could do every year. In the past it was pretty much unlimited and now an owner is only allowed to do 20 rentals per year.
     

    zavandor

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 22, 2011
    My understanding is that renting is part of the DVC declaration. From what I read Disney have already limited the number of rentals an owner could do every year. In the past it was pretty much unlimited and now an owner is only allowed to do 20 rentals per year.
    My understanding is a little different. Each owner can do up to 20 bookings without any issue. If he does 21 or more, all of them have to be personal or family and friends (gratuitus) bookings.
    So someone who owns a lot of points and books 19 stays for himself can then only do one rental.
    It is weird but this is how the rule is written.

    Having said that, I have never read someone reporting they've being questioned about their 21 bookings.
     

    KAT4DISNEY

    Glad to be a test subject
    Joined
    Mar 17, 2008
    My understanding is a little different. Each owner can do up to 20 bookings without any issue. If he does 21 or more, all of them have to be personal or family and friends (gratuitus) bookings.
    So someone who owns a lot of points and books 19 stays for himself can then only do one rental.
    It is weird but this is how the rule is written.

    Having said that, I have never read someone reporting they've being questioned about their 21 bookings.
    There isn't an exact rule for 20 bookings. It's just the point that might trigger a request for more info from DVC to determine if you are renting your DVC in a commercial, business way.
     

    WillowRain

    You can find me at Animal Kingdom!
    Joined
    Dec 2, 2014
    There isn't an exact rule for 20 bookings. It's just the point that might trigger a request for more info from DVC to determine if you are renting your DVC in a commercial, business way.
    I cannot believe it's that many. At that point it would be totally obvious that you are renting in a business way. If you have enough points to do 20 rentals, you are clearly making a mint. Now being an owner, I question this. As a renter, it's an amazing deal. And one that if gets out to the general public and not just board lurkers. In fact I have seen Facebook posts about people bragging that they purposely go on and rent the most popular rooms for the most popular dates with the intent to rent. Obvious abuse. As with all the changes that have happened lately, I feel this will stop and soon.
     

    KAT4DISNEY

    Glad to be a test subject
    Joined
    Mar 17, 2008
    I cannot believe it's that many. At that point it would be totally obvious that you are renting in a business way. If you have enough points to do 20 rentals, you are clearly making a mint. Now being an owner, I question this. As a renter, it's an amazing deal. And one that if gets out to the general public and not just board lurkers. In fact I have seen Facebook posts about people bragging that they purposely go on and rent the most popular rooms for the most popular dates with the intent to rent. Obvious abuse. As with all the changes that have happened lately, I feel this will stop and soon.
    It's expressly allowed to rent and it's very unlikely they can remove that. In fact, DVC itself would be the largest renter that there is as they also actually use their points to book rooms and rent them out in addition to renting points used for trades.
     

    3 Hobbits 2 Disney

    Working Our Way Home
    Joined
    Jan 26, 2005
    Thank you so much. We are a family of 3 who typically stay in 1BR. With DD now 18 we do a mix of 1 and 2BR stays based on length of stay. With her off to university this year we will be staying in more 1BR than 2.
     

    WillowRain

    You can find me at Animal Kingdom!
    Joined
    Dec 2, 2014
    It's expressly allowed to rent and it's very unlikely they can remove that. In fact, DVC itself would be the largest renter that there is as they also actually use their points to book rooms and rent them out in addition to renting points used for trades.
    But aren't those the points that Disney sells retail for cash? And if we do the math, the 1280 dollars I was quoted cash or whatever that was needed for a 2 bedroom Standard view at BLT would translate to 33 a point!! So yah, if it's Disney that is renting those points for those rooms at that price, I'm sure they will some day cap the rentals.
     

    denecarter

    OKW 2003
    Joined
    Jun 28, 2002
    In fact I have seen Facebook posts about people bragging that they purposely go on and rent the most popular rooms for the most popular dates with the intent to rent.
    I wonder if they are renting to people directly or if one of the rental companies allows that. I’ve only rented mine out through one company and they just wanted points, not speculative reservations. That way their customers could ask for specific dates, resorts, and room sizes that fit their vacation needs.
     

    WillowRain

    You can find me at Animal Kingdom!
    Joined
    Dec 2, 2014
    I wonder if they are renting to people directly or if one of the rental companies allows that. I’ve only rented mine out through one company and they just wanted points, not speculative reservations. That way their customers could ask for specific dates, resorts, and room sizes that fit their vacation needs.
    Could be either way. If you think about it, who WOULDN"T want a value studio at AKL the week of Christmas or NYE. Someone will rent it. Whether through a company or the boards, but I suspect boards because they can charge more. Dedicated reservations same, I see ads from the rental places all the time for those.
     

    Connect

    Disney News and Updates

    Get Daily Email Updates

    Subscribe to the DVCstore.com
    mailing list!

    BUY DVC


    SELL DVC


    DVC POINT CHARTS


    DIS PODCASTS

    Top