Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

Sandisw

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Thanks all!
 

CarolMN

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  • Grumpy by Birth

    “I AM smiling.”
    Joined
    May 27, 2017
    Oops. Didn't mean to come across as questioning site policy. Sorry about that.

    To get back on topic, I've found the charts to be extremely helpful, but I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are with regards to whether past performance is no longer a predictor of future success.

    By that, I mean... the trends that the data in these charts showed are potentially all "out the window" now that we're trying to feel our way through the dark in a post-closure world.

    Most predictions I've seen indicate that the excess points in the system from the closure will make all room types more difficult to book. But those excess points all still have a shelf life. And a lot of points didn't qualify for extension, banking, etc. So a lot may drop off as breakage and perhaps won't affect availability as drastically as some predict?

    On the other side of the coin... we still have travel restrictions in various locations and, even if they CAN travel, a lot of people will choose not to head to Florida for the foreseeable future. That will potentially INCREASE availability of rooms until the travel industry rebounds because people feel safe enough to go to WDW.

    So, what do you think? Will availability be better or worse than the charts show for the pre-COVID "normal?"
     

    KAT4DISNEY

    Glad to be a test subject
    Joined
    Mar 17, 2008
    So, what do you think? Will availability be better or worse than the charts show for the pre-COVID "normal?"
    For the next 2-3 years I'd say the charts are kind of out the window. And in reality it's always been changing. Back in the day people used to post what they were told was available when they called in to book. Then it could be seen online. The trend is that the smallest room categories are tight and the booking windows continue to tighten. Other than that I see this is an interesting look at a particular moment in time. When people can't wait as long to book they change their actions and book earlier. And when everyone starts doing that they then start booking even earlier.

    Still, it's very little that books up right at 11 months. 7 months should never be considered a given. And it all will tighten up over time. That's my prediction of things going forward! :laughing:
     

    BBCM

    I am not a Blizzard Beach Cast Member
    Joined
    Jun 29, 2020
    I may not know as much as @skier_pete - but for sure there will be some affect on the charts. At a guess is that the resorts will become even harder to get at 7 months as owners want to make sure they can use their points by booking home resorts early.
     

    Grumpy by Birth

    “I AM smiling.”
    Joined
    May 27, 2017
    I may not know as much as @skier_pete - but for sure there will be some affect on the charts. At a guess is that the resorts will become even harder to get at 7 months as owners want to make sure they can use their points by booking home resorts early.
    And yet, I'm currently seeing a LOT of availability of all types of rooms for the next 12 months (including many options that are well inside the 7 month window).

    Also, how many of the reservations currently booked will end up being cancelled when people decide not to take the trip? I have reservations for both October and March. One or both of those may end up getting cancelled/postponed further into the future.

    Might there a be a bubble with plenty of availability in the coming year, but THEN it gets really tight because people are finally willing to travel again AND they have points that have been pushed as far out as possible and will expire if not used?
     

    tntbrd

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jun 18, 2019
    I think this question cannot be answered at this time as there are a lot of factors to consider. How many folks opted out too early and deposited into RCI? How many points were actually allocated to cruise line usage? How many points just expire. I have colleagues who work at a defense firm which holds a lot of points. They loose them quite often since they simply can't use them all. It's not a common scenario; however, I'm certain there are others who either don't pay attention enough to their points or just don't care for one reason or another and those points may not be a factor. Point being, some folks may not want to come back to Disney due to crowd sizes and their past experience of getting a common cold there. Some folks may not be able to come as often or at all due to effects of this on the economy. Some folks may keep coming and get a Cabin or a Grand Villa because they snapped up a low cost resale. Some may take this experience as an chance to change their habits and come every other year which would take some pressure off of usage. It may be a real issue in a year and a half from now, but that real issue may not be as large an issue as some may believe. Just my two cents.
     

    momoftwins

    <a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis-sponsor/" targ
    Joined
    Jan 8, 2001
    I have got to be the worst searcher in the world. I saw towards the beginning of this thread that the 2 bedrooms were added in Sept 2019. I went to those posts and I do not see the chart. Does someone have the link or chart handy?

    Thanks!
     

    CarolynFH

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 5, 2000
    I have got to be the worst searcher in the world. I saw towards the beginning of this thread that the 2 bedrooms were added in Sept 2019. I went to those posts and I do not see the chart. Does someone have the link or chart handy?

    Thanks!
    They were added to each individual resort's post, so just go back to page 1 and scroll down until you reach the resort you're interested in. Be aware that since BWV has no dedicated 2-bedrooms, 2BR availability = studio availability, so there's not a separate chart for BWV 2BR. I think that's the only outlier.
     

    momoftwins

    <a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis-sponsor/" targ
    Joined
    Jan 8, 2001
    They were added to each individual resort's post, so just go back to page 1 and scroll down until you reach the resort you're interested in. Be aware that since BWV has no dedicated 2-bedrooms, 2BR availability = studio availability, so there's not a separate chart for BWV 2BR. I think that's the only outlier.
    Ah, I see. So use the studio chart to predict the 2 bedroom?? Do you know which studio view I should use, or does it matter?

    Thanks so much for helping me!
     

    CarolynFH

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 5, 2000
    You can also use the 2 bedroom charts as well to see availability.
    I think she was talking about BWV, which has no 2 bedroom charts because there are no dedicated 2BR, just lock-offs, so the studio chart = 2BR chart. If the standard view studios show x amount of availability at a certain point, then the standard view 2BR have the same availability at that point, and same for Boardwalk view and P/G view.
     

    heapmaster

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jun 1, 2018
    I think she was talking about BWV, which has no 2 bedroom charts because there are no dedicated 2BR, just lock-offs, so the studio chart = 2BR chart. If the standard view studios show x amount of availability at a certain point, then the standard view 2BR have the same availability at that point, and same for Boardwalk view and P/G view.
    Ah, ya, then you would be correct, I would use the studio charts.
     

    BBCM

    I am not a Blizzard Beach Cast Member
    Joined
    Jun 29, 2020
    From what I can tell - if you are interested in a 2-bedroom Boardwalk view - use the studio Boardwalk view charts.

    The other resort that has no dedicated 2-bedrooms is Animal Kingdom - Jambo, so the same thing with those charts. The rest all have their own 2-bedroom charts.
     

    momoftwins

    <a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis-sponsor/" targ
    Joined
    Jan 8, 2001
    Thanks all - yes, I was asking about th 2BD and how to read that chart. Thanks!!
     

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