Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

[crvetter]

Banked points or not it doen't matter though. They sold points to fill the resort every year. That they are either acting ignorantly of that fact or if they are trying to justify a decision that will benefit management with a "at members request" line is unknown but we know what the result would have been. The question is just if they hoped nobody outside of DVC would know and considering that they at first seemed to believe information of resort and unit size was proprietary I unfortunately lean a little more heavily towards the part they hoped nobody would be able to calculate what would happen. What year they would have gotten the windfall was just a matter of when because of the banking/borrowing.

They didn't use the banked points as an excuse, directly, It was me that brought it up. I highlighted that sure with banked points it is possible to fill all the rooms (because of their increased lock-off premium) but that eventually if that persists then each year as lock-offs are booked seperately there will be less and less banked points in the system. This is when I got them to agree at some point if the 2020 point charts existed in a similar fashion breakage would possibly increase (once borrowing was exhausted too). My point is I wanted to show that I was able to get them to admit the truth while they weren't really directly lying but rather omitting points (lying by omission) in their statement breakage wouldn't increase, which was likely true for a few years.

Now if the system does get a glut of banked points eventually they will have to limit banking like they did in the very beginning of DVC. But that is another discussion and likely will happen as resorts get closer to expiration.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Anything that far in advance would have to be Disney's share of the resort. One of the resorts still being sold would have more cash rooms, as anything undeclared would still be cash. I think CCV is 100% declared now though - so the room availability should be pretty limited. Riviera for example has only declared like 18% of the resort - so 82% is available for cash bookings.

They can't move rooms to "Breakage" until under 60 days i believe, but there are other experts on this site that know more about the ins and outs of the contract to say for sure besides me.

In addition to Disney’s share of the resort, it could be that Disney has points that were redeemed for Disney Cruise Line, ABD, or Disney Collection Hotels. Disney could sell those points as hotel rooms.

 

[Wakey]

That’s why it’s best to book a split stay into 2 parts or however many splits right from the start. Then you can modify the one you want to change online. If you don’t get the change then you can get the reservations merged together later.

This is how I do it. I believe if you book it as one, and hence have to call up:
1. You miss the 8am windows obviously.
2. Member services still have to cancel it all, and rebook and there is thus a chance of losing the original booking. Not 100% on that, but this is what I was told.

So you are much better off booking your 11 month booking in 2 tranches for the days you want to do your split.

 

[heapmaster]

In addition to Disney’s share of the resort, it could be that Disney has points that were redeemed for Disney Cruise Line, ABD, or Disney Collection Hotels. Disney could sell those points as hotel rooms.

To me based on what I see on the cash side and on the DVC side, it looks like breakage with the that room type available for 52 weeks out of the year, that would be a lot of breakage points for just the CCV resort no?

 

[DaveNan]

To me based on what I see on the cash side and on the DVC side, it looks like breakage with the that room type available for 52 weeks out of the year, that would be a lot of breakage points for just the CCV resort no?

Agreed. I have a "how could Disney make the most money" theory on this one.
My understanding is breakage is they reserve 2% of the points to cover rooms not available due to maintenance.
If rooms are out of service less that 2% of the time, and they can be reserved for cash in under 60 days.

Disney needs to make rooms available based on the number of points they sold. As we have learned from the modified point charts of 2020, this number of points is based on booking all lock-off 2BR as 2BR, not as a studio and a 1BR. I have a hunch Disney uses this to full advantage and has a huge cash stream (room to rent for cash) based on this.

Disney has several several other sources of points, that are not "breakage" and thus are not subject to the 60 day rule.
A. Disney owns the points. They bought back the points through rofr and have not sold them yet.
B. Disney is restricting the owner from using the points, and thus as some point, use them for cash reservations. The owner is behind mortgage payments to Disney, or MF, so they can't use the points and they go to waste. Disney may not be in a hurry to foreclose, they just sell your points, while you are locked out from using them. If you are behind on your MF, Disney loses $7 per point, but sells them for $20-25. So they actually would prefer us all to be behind on MF.
C. You use points for cruise, RCI, or collection hotel. They not have those points to use on rooms.
D. (Here's the one I suspect, example based on weeknight BLT july) Lock off premium points. Remember, points are sold and must maintain the 2BR rate, not the split room rates. A studio is 21ppn, the 1BR is 41ppn and the lock-off 2BR is 52ppn. If that villa is booked as a studio and a 1BR, 62 points have been taken out of circulation. But only 52 points of room obligation is used. Disney would now have 10 points they can use to make a cash reservation. Think about it, if this ratio persisted for the entire year, in just 10 months of room use all of the points for the year would be taken from members. The remaining 2 months Disney can now rent for cash. Given the varying ratio between room categories, in most resorts if the lock-off 2BR are booked primarily as studios and 1BR, Disney has somewhere around 5-10% of points being lost (or taken) due to the lock-off premium. (A real number example, by increasing the lock-off premium at KV based on the original 2020 charts the lock-off premium went from 6.5% of the entire annual points to 9.7%. At $19 per point the value of the lock-off premium at 100 separate booking, went from 6.85million per year to 10.14 million per year for Kidani village alone).

I believe when Disney gets the points by any of these means (I suspect lock-off premium and behind on payments lead the way) they can use those points to pull rooms out of inventory and use them for cash reservations anytime within the UY, not just in the last 60 days. Only "breakage" points are subject to the 60 limit.

 

[heapmaster]

Agreed. I have a "how could Disney make the most money" theory on this one.
My understanding is breakage is they reserve 2% of the points to cover rooms not available due to maintenance.
If rooms are out of service less that 2% of the time, and they can be reserved for cash in under 60 days.

Disney needs to make rooms available based on the number of points they sold. As we have learned from the modified point charts of 2020, this number of points is based on booking all lock-off 2BR as 2BR, not as a studio and a 1BR. I have a hunch Disney uses this to full advantage and has a huge cash stream (room to rent for cash) based on this.

Disney has several several other sources of points, that are not "breakage" and thus are not subject to the 60 day rule.
A. Disney owns the points. They bought back the points through rofr and have not sold them yet.
B. Disney is restricting the owner from using the points, and thus as some point, use them for cash reservations. The owner is behind mortgage payments to Disney, or MF, so they can't use the points and they go to waste. Disney may not be in a hurry to foreclose, they just sell your points, while you are locked out from using them. If you are behind on your MF, Disney loses $7 per point, but sells them for $20-25. So they actually would prefer us all to be behind on MF.
C. You use points for cruise, RCI, or collection hotel. They not have those points to use on rooms.
D. (Here's the one I suspect, example based on weeknight BLT july) Lock off premium points. Remember, points are sold and must maintain the 2BR rate, not the split room rates. A studio is 21ppn, the 1BR is 41ppn and the lock-off 2BR is 52ppn. If that villa is booked as a studio and a 1BR, 62 points have been taken out of circulation. But only 52 points of room obligation is used. Disney would now have 10 points they can use to make a cash reservation. Think about it, if this ratio persisted for the entire year, in just 10 months of room use all of the points for the year would be taken from members. The remaining 2 months Disney can now rent for cash. Given the varying ratio between room categories, in most resorts if the lock-off 2BR are booked primarily as studios and 1BR, Disney has somewhere around 5-10% of points being lost (or taken) due to the lock-off premium. (A real number example, by increasing the lock-off premium at KV based on the original 2020 charts the lock-off premium went from 6.5% of the entire annual points to 9.7%. At $19 per point the value of the lock-off premium at 100 separate booking, went from 6.85million per year to 10.14 million per year for Kidani village alone).

I believe when Disney gets the points by any of these means (I suspect lock-off premium and behind on payments lead the way) they can use those points to pull rooms out of inventory and use them for cash reservations anytime within the UY, not just in the last 60 days. Only "breakage" points are subject to the 60 limit.

That makes sense, I wonder how many rooms are taken out thats killing availability for DVC guests....i wish I could use the @GrandCalifornian room charts and go to every CCV studio room on a specific day and ask the hotel guest, "I'm doing a survey...did you book on cash or points?"

 

[Wakey]

Interesting points Davenan I had never thought about what happens to ‘vapour’ points that disappear (if they do) when a 1 bed and studio is booked as a 2 bed lock off.
Could this be another reason why they were keen to increase the points on 1 beds, to push us into 2 beds and thus release more lock off premium pointage?
I’m not entirely sure how this works, so I am asking as a question rather than assuming what Davenan says is correct, but it seems to make sense.

 

[CarolMN]

DVC MUST take rooms out of points inventory when Members use points for certain options (i.e., Disney Collection, Concierge Collections). MOST, by far, of the cash availability is a result of those Member choices. (You might be surprised at how many points are used to cruise on DCL). IMO, DVC does a pretty good job of NOT taking the most popular times & villas for that purpose.

I'm sure it still bothers a Member when they see cash availability for what they are seeking for points, but we have to remember that this is how they pay for Member Choices. If they only took the "leftovers", there would be more that wouldn't rent or would rent for lower cash prices. That would result in HIGHER point costs for Member Choices. It's really no different than another Member "beating you out" for that DVC villa.

 

[FoodieFriend]

I have to restate how happy I am that @skier_pete & @Bing Showei added 2BDR booking patterns as I just found out that our big trip for 2021 won't be able to be booked at the 11 month mark, but more like the 9-7 month mark. GAH!! Now I'm just waiting for the points charts to drop for 2021 to see how I'm going to work our split stay. Thank you, thank you, thank you!

 

[SG131]

You know this thread really should be a sticky, it’s such a valuable resource.

 

[TigerInGa]

.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

You know this thread really should be a sticky, it’s such a valuable resource.

I concur. I had the hardest time finding it yesterday (until I figured out how to find my watched threads

 

[DaveNan]

You know this thread really should be a sticky, it’s such a valuable resource.

It is included in Post 11 on the THE DVC Resource Center in the sticky threads. That post has several other great threads as well.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

It is included in Post 11 on the THE DVC Resource Center in the sticky threads. That post has several other great threads as well.

Awesome and good to know. Thanks!

 

[mustinjourney]

You know this thread really should be a sticky, it’s such a valuable resource.

I’ve only suggested this several hundred times. If only @skier_pete knew someone high up in the Dis. Maybe @WebmasterPete could help out?

 

[skier_pete]

I’ve only suggested this several hundred times. If only @skier_pete knew someone high up in the Dis. Maybe @WebmasterPete could help out?

Well. as @DaveNan pointed out, they put it in the DVC resource center list of threads which is stickied, so you can just look it up there if you can't find it.

 

[Chuck S]

Well. as @DaveNan pointed out, they put it in the DVC resource center list of threads which is stickied, so you can just look it up there if you can't find it.

You can also bookmark/favorite the thread with your browser. And there is the option to subscribe/watch the thread on the top of the page which will alert you to any new posts. .

 

[mustinjourney]

You can also bookmark/favorite the thread with your browser. And there is the option or subscribe/watch the thread on the top of the page which will alert you to any new posts. .

I get all that, but the problem is that it is hard for people to find if they don’t already know about it.
That’s the bigger issue.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I get all that, but the problem is that it is hard for people to find if they don’t already know about it.
That’s the bigger issue.

That is what the Resource Center is for.

 

[mustinjourney]

That is what the Resource Center is for.

I just went to the resource center, and the predicted pattern link is very hard to find. For a question that gets asked as much as it does, IMHO it should have its own link on the first post of the resource page.