Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

[SG131]

No.Unfortunately the charts can't be prepped until a resort is sold out. We are starting on CCV now but to early to tell much.

Thanks. I keep going back and forth between CCV and BLT. I love them both for completely different reasons.

 

[Philsfan77]

Thanks. I keep going back and forth between CCV and BLT. I love them both for completely different reasons.

I own at CCV and primarily will be booking 2-bedrooms so I have been tracking this for the past 4-5 months, just to get a general idea of what to expect. There is still wide availability within the 7 month window for April and the start of May. March (about 5 months out right now is about half open and it was still pretty much fully open within the 7 month window, but days are starting to go now). Summer months are still wide open (currently within the 8-11 month windows, and September days available for booking inside 11 months are still open). I'm interested to see how long the September days last, and then how the rest of the fall and December days look, as I will be traveling primarily then. Overall, I'm happy to see pretty much widespread availability thus far for 2 bedrooms even after the 7 month mark hits, but the months thus far i've been tracking are high point months, which have availability most places. My guess is October, November and December days will be gone within a week of 11 month window opening...but we shall see.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

I hope this is the correct place to ask this question but if not I apologize and please move this post where it belongs...

We are looking to buy a BLT, CCV, or PBV resale contract. We primarily visit the last two weeks of August, want to stay at CCV, BCV, BWV, PBV, and BLT STD/LV. I am thinking that since a BLT STD studio is pretty difficult to get at the 11 month window we use should try for a contract there and make that our home resort. We would want stay a total of 7 nights which we would split between Epcot area (BCV/BWV) and MK area (either CCV/PBV/BLT).

My question is how feasible is this scenario in reality? Are we going to run into issues/complications at the 7 month window with cancellations if we book our home resort at 11 mos and then try to get one of these other resorts at the 7 month window? Will there be issues with the points we use for the initial booking that may not be needed for the modified one?

Thanks to anyone who may help.

 

[crvetter]

My question is how feasible is this scenario in reality?

I think the last two weeks of August is when the DVC traffic does start to pickup some. I would suspect that CCV at 7 months then will be hard to get (likely will always be hard to get at 7 months and hard to get at 11 months during Fall Frenzy). BCV is probably the second hardest resort, then BWV/BLT LV tied, and finally Poly. I would say Poly is the easiest only because it consists mainly of studios therefore should be a bit eaiser to grab. BWV you'll need to bank on Pool/Garden view and BLT I would only assume Lake View ever at 7 months.

Are we going to run into issues/complications at the 7 month window with cancellations if we book our home resort at 11 mos and then try to get one of these other resorts at the 7 month window?

The online tool allows you to modify bookings to change a resort. Effectively it holds your entire reservation until you confirm your new reservation. So you'll never be without a reservation. What it can't do is modify certain days of your reservation. So you can split your initial reservation from 7 days to a 3/4 day split. This is because there was an advantage given to you at 11 months for booking it as a continuous 7 days.

Will there be issues with the points we use for the initial booking that may not be needed for the modified one?

The only issues here is if you cancel/modify within 30 days of the checkin date or within in your last 4 months of the use year. Within 30 days if you use less points they would go into holding and thus can be used for reservations made within 60 days only. If you modify with in the last 4 months of your use year they will stay in the current use year and you can't bank them anymore. Other than that expiring points are important for any extra banked or borrow points you might have left after modifying a reservation.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

I think the last two weeks of August is when the DVC traffic does start to pickup some. I would suspect that CCV at 7 months then will be hard to get (likely will always be hard to get at 7 months and hard to get at 11 months during Fall Frenzy). BCV is probably the second hardest resort, then BWV/BLT LV tied, and finally Poly. I would say Poly is the easiest only because it consists mainly of studios therefore should be a bit eaiser to grab. BWV you'll need to bank on Pool/Garden view and BLT I would only assume Lake View ever at 7 months.

The online tool allows you to modify bookings to change a resort. Effectively it holds your entire reservation until you confirm your new reservation. So you'll never be without a reservation. What it can't do is modify certain days of your reservation. So you can split your initial reservation from 7 days to a 3/4 day split. This is because there was an advantage given to you at 11 months for booking it as a continuous 7 days.

The only issues here is if you cancel/modify within 30 days of the checkin date or within in your last 4 months of the use year. Within 30 days if you use less points they would go into holding and thus can be used for reservations made within 60 days only. If you modify with in the last 4 months of your use year they will stay in the current use year and you can't bank them anymore. Other than that expiring points are important for any extra banked or borrow points you might have left after modifying a reservation.

Thanks, this is all good information. I guess for this we should look for a use year that will give us at least 4-5 months window prior to our typical vacation time for that last reason.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks, this is all good information. I guess for this we should look for a use year that will give us at least 4-5 months window prior to our typical vacation time for that last reason.

Would agree @crvetter assessment. CCV studios are going to be difficult regardless of time of year at 7 months, same with BLT standard view, and BCV - though we have managed to get into studios at BCV last two weeks of august twice so it is doable with 7 month window. Boardwalk Pool/Garden, BLT Lake, and Poly will all be pretty easy at 7 months in late August.

I'm a value guy - so of the ones you list, I would suggest buying at BLT. It has the lowest MF of the resorts you list, and as you point out yourself, if you want to stretch your points, you can then use the Standard view rooms to get more value out of your points if need be. You should still be able to "sleep around" at Poly and BWV, and even with fast fingers BCV. CCV studios may be tough gets (not sure yet) but you could always go for BRV which are about 200 feet to the south and once they go through refurb shortly likely to be pretty nice.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

likely to be pretty nice.

Or....are already pretty nice.

IMO

 

[SL6827]

Awesome job once again. It sure does seem like more and more people are wanting to stay in studios, a direct effect of the high point cost and price of the new resorts?

Still holding true.

 

[BarryS]

Thank you @skier_pete and @Bing Showei for all the time and work put into making and maintaining these charts!

It's so helpful to know the general odds of getting a particular room category at 7 months.

It's interesting to see that the SSR reallocation apparently didn't make those Standard rooms cheap enough to draw more members into booking there.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the last two weeks of August is when the DVC traffic does start to pickup some. I would suspect that CCV at 7 months then will be hard to get (likely will always be hard to get at 7 months and hard to get at 11 months during Fall Frenzy). BCV is probably the second hardest resort, then BWV/BLT LV tied, and finally Poly. I would say Poly is the easiest only because it consists mainly of studios therefore should be a bit eaiser to grab. BWV you'll need to bank on Pool/Garden view and BLT I would only assume Lake View ever at 7 months.

The online tool allows you to modify bookings to change a resort. Effectively it holds your entire reservation until you confirm your new reservation. So you'll never be without a reservation. What it can't do is modify certain days of your reservation. So you can split your initial reservation from 7 days to a 3/4 day split. This is because there was an advantage given to you at 11 months for booking it as a continuous 7 days.

The only issues here is if you cancel/modify within 30 days of the checkin date or within in your last 4 months of the use year. Within 30 days if you use less points they would go into holding and thus can be used for reservations made within 60 days only. If you modify with in the last 4 months of your use year they will stay in the current use year and you can't bank them anymore. Other than that expiring points are important for any extra banked or borrow points you might have left after modifying a reservation.

Just to clarify, you can not modify part of a reservation online, only by calling MS. So, if you book a 7 night trip and want to do a split stay, you have to call. And you have to be at the 7 month window for what you want to split.

Also, it’s 31 days or more from check in to keep points out of holding.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Just to clarify, you can not modify part of a reservation online, only by calling MS. So, if you book a 7 night trip and want to do a split stay, you have to call. And you have to be at the 7 month window for what you want to split.

Also, it’s 31 days or more from check in to keep points out of holding.

That’s why it’s best to book a split stay into 2 parts or however many splits right from the start. Then you can modify the one you want to change online. If you don’t get the change then you can get the reservations merged together later.

 

[MouseFu]

Thank you for doing these charts. They are amazing and so incredibly helpful for the newbie trying to plan things out!

 

[RichVIII]

Thank you all for doing this. It is not only helpful, it gives everyone some of the shifts that are occurring. Thanks again!

 

[heapmaster]

Quick question, maybe this has been answered somewhere else, and I would assume its due to breakage, but how can they know about breakage that far in advance? Looking at room availability right at 11 months, the following day for example a week reservation had missing days in the middle for a studio at copper creek due to DVC user reservations, normal. I then just for kicks go to the cash side and the studio for the same time frame is available for cash. Is this breakage that far in advance or DVC owning its share of points that they have already booked out the room from DVC reservations for cash guests?

 

[skier_pete]

Quick question, maybe this has been answered somewhere else, and I would assume its due to breakage, but how can they know about breakage that far in advance? Looking at room availability right at 11 months, the following day for example a week reservation had missing days in the middle for a studio at copper creek due to DVC user reservations, normal. I then just for kicks go to the cash side and the studio for the same time frame is available for cash. Is this breakage that far in advance or DVC owning its share of points that they have already booked out the room from DVC reservations for cash guests?

Anything that far in advance would have to be Disney's share of the resort. One of the resorts still being sold would have more cash rooms, as anything undeclared would still be cash. I think CCV is 100% declared now though - so the room availability should be pretty limited. Riviera for example has only declared like 18% of the resort - so 82% is available for cash bookings.

They can't move rooms to "Breakage" until under 60 days i believe, but there are other experts on this site that know more about the ins and outs of the contract to say for sure besides me.

 

[CarolMN]

My understanding is that DVCMC does use past history to "predict" rooms that will end up in breakage, and offers those villas to DRC to rent to the general public much earlier than 60 days out.

It's my belief that the increased popularity of renting has made those predictions more difficult, and has actually decreased the number of rooms that end up in breakage - but so far, not enough to lower the breakage revenue that belongs to the resorts (which is capped). AFAIK, all of the sold out resorts still get the max available to them for breakage revenue.

It will be very interesting to see the 2021 point charts. Many here believe that the rescinded 2020 charts would have resulted in increased breakage revenue for DVCMC. (All breakage revenue over the cap goes to DVCMC). The decrease in that revenue (if I am correct) has got to be worrisome for them.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It will be very interesting to see the 2021 point charts. Many here believe that the rescinded 2020 charts would have resulted in increased breakage revenue for DVCMC. (All breakage revenue over the cap goes to DVCMC). The decrease in that revenue (if I am correct) has got to be worrisome for them.

As we all cannot count on getting any particular villa whenever we want as the design of the timeshare is to be booked up 100% of the time DVCMC should not be counting on any breakage revenue. That's a bonus for them not a predictable revenue. As we see a tightening in availability because people are using their membership then they will too. If they are worried about that and attempting to get more breakage revenue then they are not acting in good faith of the owners. They would be acting on behalf of the management company.

I too believe they are allowed to use calculations to predict breakage vs waiting for the actual breakage. That might need to be adjusted which I hope they are doing.

 

[skier_pete]

My understanding is that DVCMC does use past history to "predict" rooms that will end up in breakage, and offers those villas to DRC to rent to the general public much earlier than 60 days out.

It's my belief that the increased popularity of renting has made those predictions more difficult, and has actually decreased the number of rooms that end up in breakage - but so far, not enough to lower the breakage revenue that belongs to the resorts (which is capped). AFAIK, all of the sold out resorts still get the max available to them for breakage revenue.

It will be very interesting to see the 2021 point charts. Many here believe that the rescinded 2020 charts would have resulted in increased breakage revenue for DVCMC. (All breakage revenue over the cap goes to DVCMC). The decrease in that revenue (if I am correct) has got to be worrisome for them.

well - except they claimed that the point chart changes would result in LESS breakage. (This was claimed to me verbally on the phone - their words, not mine.) So by reverting the point charts, they should have exceeded predicted breakage allowances.

 

[crvetter]

well - except they claimed that the point chart changes would result in LESS breakage. (This was claimed to me verbally on the phone - their words, not mine.) So by reverting the point charts, they should have exceeded predicted breakage allowances.

Yeah they told me the same thing too. Though I did get agreement that it would be a temporary thing as people with banked points would essentially be burning their points the first year or 2 thus filling all the rooms more completely. But I pressed the issue in subsequent years when points start to "dry" up that the members have because of the increased studio and 1 bedroom costs, they admitted that more rooms may go into breakage because the members might not have enough points "on-hand" to book lockoffs as separate units, but they stated they would re-evaluate that situation then. Obviously it was corporate speak but that was the company line I got but a little pushing I got them to see the issue I think you see and I know I saw.

It really comes down to how many banked points are in the system and how liberal people would be using them to fill rooms. Could be 1-2 years or a few years I have no idea the glut of banked points right now. But if they wanted to fix a glut of point issue the "right" way would have been to limit banking points like they have in the past (if this is truly even an issue at all, but I suspect not).

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yeah they told me the same thing too. Though I did get agreement that it would be a temporary thing as people with banked points would essentially be burning their points the first year or 2 thus filling all the rooms more completely. But I pressed the issue in subsequent years when points start to "dry" up that the members have because of the increased studio and 1 bedroom costs, they admitted that more rooms may go into breakage because the members might not have enough points "on-hand" to book lockoffs as separate units, but they stated they would re-evaluate that situation then. Obviously it was corporate speak but that was the company line I got but a little pushing I got them to see the issue I think you see and I know I saw.

It really comes down to how many banked points are in the system and how liberal people would be using them to fill rooms. Could be 1-2 years or a few years I have no idea the glut of banked points right now. But if they wanted to fix a glut of point issue the "right" way would have been to limit banking points like they have in the past (if this is truly even an issue at all, but I suspect not).

Banked points or not it doen't matter though. They sold points to fill the resort every year. That they are either acting ignorantly of that fact or if they are trying to justify a decision that will benefit management with a "at members request" line is unknown but we know what the result would have been. The question is just if they hoped nobody outside of DVC would know and considering that they at first seemed to believe information of resort and unit size was proprietary I unfortunately lean a little more heavily towards the part they hoped nobody would be able to calculate what would happen. What year they would have gotten the windfall was just a matter of when because of the banking/borrowing.