Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

PKen82

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 7, 2018
This is amazing @skier_pete and @Bing Showei!! Terrific information, well laid-out, easy to understand. Well done!! And, of course, thank you!!

Not too surprised to see confirmation on the continued pressure on studio availability for the reasons mentioned, namely lower points per night and higher costs per point.

It does make you wonder about a possible redistribution of points between studios and 1-bedrooms to even out the 7-month availability a bit.
 
  • ClosetDisMom

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Aug 9, 2017
    Hey everyone - due to the popularity of my original survery, I have repeated the survey of the resort availability tool, compiling a list of all the studios and 1-bedrooms. The original survey can be that was done May 2014 to June 2015 can be accessed at this link. This new version was started in July of 2017 and finished in June of 2018.

    What I would do is check the availability tool roughly every two weeks looking at a variety of two week windows from 1 month out to 11 months out in the future. The first time I did this primarily for my own use, but due to the popularity of the survey, I decided to update it and expand to all the WDW DVC 1-bedroom units. Understand that this takes roughly 2 hours every two weeks, which is why I didn't expand it to ALL units.


    Right at the start here I want to give lots of credit to @Bing Showei for his assistance. As I started to take on this task, he volunteered to take on several resorts - Boulder Ridge, Grand Floridian, and Animal Kingdom (Kidani and Jambo). Coming in a few months in, he took on about a third of the work for these tables overall, and cut my efforts significantly, so any thanks you give to me - please extend to him as well.

    .
    Seriously, you and @Bing Showei are awesome! This must have consumed a lot of time and persistance and I thank you! These charts are so handy and I love that you updated them. When I was researching buying into DVC, I was seriously anxious about trading out points to try new resorts - we love WDW, but still wanted variety. I came across your original post and it helped calm me down and feel more confident about the purchase I made. THANK YOU, again! This rocks!
    :disrocks:
     

    Jim Ousley

    Disneyfamilyof6
    Joined
    Mar 4, 2016
    Do you all think that the new 75 point rule and more contracts popping up for small amounts of points will continue to make studios harder?

    Disney requires more points to buy direct but anyone can buy resale for 25-100 points and have availability to realistically only book studios!

    Pressure will grow as each new resort has higher points per night and fewer studios!
     

    skier_pete

    DIsney-holics Anon
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2006
    I’m guessing there are a few factors at play here causing increased studio demand.

    1. With point costs going up, people own smaller chunks of points. So you end up with more people in the system and they only have enough points for studios.

    2. With rental brokers being so easy to find, less points are likely going unused than in the past.

    3. Renewed interest in WDW with opening of Pandora and upcoming TSL/STL.

    4. Economy is way up since 2015
    I think you've completely nailed it - with #1 and #2 being the predominant reasons. (The good economy is the reason prices are up as far as they are.) But yes, it used to be when points were < $100 per point, people could come in and get 250 points with $25,000. Now as they approach $200 a point, you are looking at half the number of points for the same price. So while more people are buying in, they are buying in with smaller buys - looking for studios.

    I think the rental market is also the reason for studios being gone, especially at 7 months. It would be interesting to see what percentage of units are rentals today versus 3 years ago.

    Not too surprised to see confirmation on the continued pressure on studio availability for the reasons mentioned, namely lower points per night and higher costs per point.

    It does make you wonder about a possible redistribution of points between studios and 1-bedrooms to even out the 7-month availability a bit.
    I think this is extremely unlikely, though it COULD happen to a slight degree I don't think it will. You have to remember that everything Disney does around DVC is for a marketing tool to sell more DVC. Raising prices (point requirements) on studios across the board would only hurt sales, not help them.

    I am starting to realize that this is really what those bungalows are all about - generating a pile of points for Disney to sell. Without the cabins, CCV would have about 1/3 less points to sell. There's very little care for the fact that that resort is going to be so overloaded on cabins from a points perspective.

    The biggest hope for those of us that stay in studios have is that DVC execs are looking at the same data as us and seeing the same issue - that studios are super under-represented in the DVC system. Even the fact that they dropped a resort with 80% studios (PVB) in those 3 years and yet studios are becoming even scarcer. I thought with the Poly that maybe that indicated they realized the problem, but then when CCV opened with a mere 9% of their points in Studios - it's clear that Disney either (A) doesn't see it or (B) doesn't care. Perhaps we will see what happens with Riviera. There is no point-sapping units like the Bungalows here, and I am really hoping they do something like they did with AKV where for every 2-bedroom lock-off they put in an extra studio. There should be a MINIMUM of TWICE the number of studios at any resort as there are 1-bedrooms and the same with dedicated 2-bedrooms.

    So in other words, resorts like Riviera should be built with the following distributions (note I don't know how many actual units there will be:
    100 Dedicated Studios
    100 2-bedroom Lock-offs
    100 Dedicate 2-bedrooms
    This allows them to have 200 studios, 100 1-bedrooms, and 100 2-bedrooms and the studios make up roughly 25 % of the total points, not a mere 10% like at SOME resorts (CCV). In fact, I would suggest they may even want to go a little higher on the dedicated studios.

    Thank you for this update. You and @Bing Showei deserve a medal. Or at least a crate of Mickey Bars.
    I will gladly take the Mickey Bars!
     

    southerngirl528

    Dreamin' of Maui
    Joined
    May 9, 2013
    Hey everyone - due to the popularity of my original survery, I have repeated the survey of the resort availability tool, compiling a list of all the studios and 1-bedrooms. The original survey can be that was done May 2014 to June 2015 can be accessed at this link. This new version was started in July of 2017 and finished in June of 2018.

    What I would do is check the availability tool roughly every two weeks looking at a variety of two week windows from 1 month out to 11 months out in the future. The first time I did this primarily for my own use, but due to the popularity of the survey, I decided to update it and expand to all the WDW DVC 1-bedroom units. Understand that this takes roughly 2 hours every two weeks, which is why I didn't expand it to ALL units.
    Thanks so very much for the hard work on this project, guys!!! Awesome gift to all of us on the DVC forums here! :thanks: :thanks: :thanks:
     

    skier_pete

    DIsney-holics Anon
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2006
    Do you all think that the new 75 point rule and more contracts popping up for small amounts of points will continue to make studios harder?

    Disney requires more points to buy direct but anyone can buy resale for 25-100 points and have availability to realistically only book studios!

    Pressure will grow as each new resort has higher points per night and fewer studios!
    The one thing is I don't agree that resorts will continue to get higher points per night for studios. This was indeed the case for VGF and PVB but to me those were somewhat special circumstances. CCV rolled back prices to a more reasonable PPN, and I really think that Riviera is also going to have a reasonable PPN for MOST of their rooms. (There will be a "Theme Park view" room that I expect will get a 25-35% premium on points.) Even with the Skyliner - Riviera won't have the appeal of a Grand Floridian. Many of the rooms are going to have views of nothing or CBR - and it will be hard to shake the "moderate" opinion. I think you are looking at probably slightly higher points than your BCV/BWV rooms, but I don't think by more than 10-15% at worst.
     

    RichVIII

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jan 7, 2016
    Having just made a 7 mo change, your charts are spot on (pun intended)! Great work and thank you.

    I agree with others, we typically stay in studios since we are only three but have ended up using points for 1 bedrooms to say where we have wanted. While I enjoy the space, it kills me to blow the points. I know when day as my daughter gets older we won’t have an option for a studio, but while we can.

    We have “slowly” bought in over nearly two years all via resale. When I see the costs now, I don’t know how “most” families are dropping nearly 40k to get 200 points at a new resort. We have spent that over three resale contracts but also have 325 points and already don’t feel like it is enough. I have heard the pitch, bank, borrow and you and your family can stay in any studio across the system!

    Those will lots of points who have invested along the way also do seem to be renting now.
     

    mustinjourney

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2016
    I thought with the Poly that maybe that indicated they realized the problem, but then when CCV opened with a mere 9% of their points in Studios - it's clear that Disney either (A) doesn't see it or (B) doesn't care.
    don't you remember everyone *****ing about PVB only having studios? That's why they said with CCV, "we heard what you said and are offering more of those 1 and 2 BR units!"
     

    Orsino

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 15, 2006
    I am starting to realize that this is really what those bungalows are all about - generating a pile of points for Disney to sell. Without the cabins, CCV would have about 1/3 less points to sell. There's very little care for the fact that that resort is going to be so overloaded on cabins from a points perspective.
    I agree. There are very few people who can stay in the bungalows and even fewer that will want to stay in them more than once. In addition to the observations above about resale and renting 'optimizing' points so that points are used to their fullest which puts greater pressure on studios, the cache of bungalow points and cabin points is also putting more demand on studios.

    I've only owned since 2010, and since then I've not had any trouble getting what I wanted in studios (including a studio stay in the hard to get VGC). But I've also benefitted from most of my stays being in February. Oddly enough, the charts show better availability for the first two weeks of February compared to the last two weeks of January or February.
    January is Adventure Season (lowest points needed)
    First Two Weeks of Feb is Dream (middle points needed) - better availability than both January and Late February.
    Last Two weeks of Feb is Magic (high, but not highest, points needed), even though it costs more points, it looks more popular than early Feb. Probably President's Day related.
     

    mustinjourney

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 8, 2016
    I agree. There are very few people who can stay in the bungalows and even fewer that will want to stay in them more than once. In addition to the observations above about resale and renting 'optimizing' points so that points are used to their fullest which puts greater pressure on studios, the cache of bungalow points and cabin points is also putting more demand on studios.

    I've only owned since 2010, and since then I've not had any trouble getting what I wanted in studios (including a studio stay in the hard to get VGC). But I've also benefitted from most of my stays being in February. Oddly enough, the charts show better availability for the first two weeks of February compared to the last two weeks of January or February.
    January is Adventure Season (lowest points needed)
    First Two Weeks of Feb is Dream (middle points needed) - better availability than both January and Late February.
    Last Two weeks of Feb is Magic (high, but not highest, points needed), even though it costs more points, it looks more popular than early Feb. Probably President's Day related.
    princess marathon is last week or so of Feb.
     

    skier_pete

    DIsney-holics Anon
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2006
    Last Two weeks of Feb is Magic (high, but not highest, points needed), even though it costs more points, it looks more popular than early Feb. Probably President's Day related.
    yes - the 3rd week of February is both President's Day week (A lot of NE schools off on vacation) and more importantly Princess Marathon. The weekend of Princess marathon is typically all studios gone by 7 months almost everywhere, but it's really just for 3 days (Thurs-Sat). We booked that week in Feb of this year, and we were able to grab a Boardwalk view studio at the 7-month mark for early in the week. Later in the week, we had to use "home" points (Which we rented at WLV from a friend) because the marathon had everything booked up.

    I didn't state it in my original observation, but it appears that early January has also gotten significantly busier. Late January maybe a little bit, but really there are lots of options in late January. But you are right in observing that early February is extremely easy to get anything you want practically at 7 months.
     

    bebec22

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Sep 12, 2014
    I cannot thank each of you enough for doing this! Your findings are invaluable. I have been stalking these boards for about a year and will finally be ready to buy towards the end of this year. This information is so helpful in my research. I think I know one thing, I need to buy enough points for a 1 bedroom if I want to have hopes of switching at 7 months. Thank you guys again!
     

    NewbieMom

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    May 4, 2018
    Thank you for the research and charts! I guess your findings confirmed that I need to just pony up for those VGC points, if I ever hope to stay there!
     

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