Potential Tropical Storm This Weekend

[JimMIA]

There is a weather system currently in the SE Bahamas, moving toward Florida, which could develop into a tropical storm. The current designation is "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9." If the system develops into a tropical storm, the name will be Humberto.

I'm going to post the current map, but there is a BIG question mark about the system's actual path. The National Hurricane Center's projected track follows the majority of the models, but one of the most accurate models brings the system across the tip of South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Here's the map:



You can see that the current projection shows the system affecting the NW Bahamas, which were already devastated by Hurricane Dorian. Then the system is projected to move onshore in Florida somewhere north of West Palm Beach. Tropical Storm Warnings have already been issued for the central and northern Bahamas.

A hurricane hunter aircraft is en route to evaluate the system.

The system is not expected to reach hurricane strength, but it could certainly cause major problems in the Abacos and Grand Bahama -- and it has the potential to disrupt Orlando air traffic. It's too early to tell how likely airline disruption is, but we should have a better idea tomorrow.

 

[JimMIA]

The above track has shifted a little to the right and the storm is now projected to move up the central and north Florida coast. Unfortunately, before it does that, it will strengthen to a tropical storm and hit the nearly-obliterated northern Bahamas first.

I'll post a map and more info after the 11 AM advisory, but the storm is expected to remain a tropical storm all the way through Florida and beyond, so we can expect air travel disruptions.

MUCH better to have Disney travel plans changed than to be in the Abacos or Grand Bahama with nothing but the clothes on your back!

 

[honeymo78]

Flying into MCO early Sunday morning. At this point I expect a delay but hopefully not a cancellation, although who knows. So far no flight related travel advisories for Orlando but I’ll have to keep checking.

 

[WEDWDW]

We are to arrive at MCO at 9:00 AM tomoorrow-should be OK-no flight delay?

 

[jackglick]

We are suppose to arrive on Sunday. My flight is at 7 am. Hopefully we can get in. This is my rescheduled trip from Dorian.

 

[jenushkask8s]

We're supposed to arrive tomorrow at 5pm. Hoping for no delays or cancellations!

 

[JimMIA]

This system looks increasingly like it might not make landfall in the US, but it still bears watching.

Over the last 18-24 hours, the computer models have come more into agreement and have moved well to the right (east) of where they were. Therefore, the projected track has shifted to offshore of the Florida coast. However, with a system like this, things could change rapidly, and it wouldn't take much of a shift for the storm to affect Orlando.

The intensity is expected to continue to increase, and this system should be Tropical Storm Humberto by tomorrow morning. Also note that Humberto is expected to intensify to a Category One hurricane on Tuesday...so keep your eye on this one.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Flagler county line (roughly Flagler Beach)

Here's the 1100 AM map:

 

[JimMIA]

WDW visitors can breathe a sigh of relief. Current forecasts call for Tropical Storm Humberto to stay well away from the Florida coast. All watches have been lifted for Florida.

Humberto may pose a threat to Bermuda. The current forecast takes the storm toward Bermuda as a Category TWO hurricane midweek.

Here's the 11 AM map, and this will be my last update.