Poly or Riviera for direct if you know you will want Riviera in the far future?

[WeIcomeHome]

I faced this exact same scenario and decided to buy RIV direct because if I end up buying both, I would rather have poly resale than RIV resale.

I'm also mostly a studio stayer so Poly availability wasn't a concern at 7 mo if going RIV direct. If you like the preferred view Riviera rooms you would have a similar 7 mo. availabilty situation currently with RIV. But I question what 7 mo. availability looks like in 10 years after more resale points have been sold.

 

[DVCsloth]

But maybe we buy Poly now and just get some cheap Riviera resale points in 20 years?

Not sure you can count on this in 20 years. BCV and BWV will be expired in their current form and most likely very expensive in their new version, and most likely will be restricted as well. If I were buying direct now, I would buy where I want to stay and not worry about restrictions because they won't affect direct points. I prefer Riviera over Poly although obviously Poly has better access to MK and almost as good of access to Epcot IMO.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I'd get Riviera since Poly resale can be mixed with anything else you buy. Especially if you want to do the Tower Studios as a couple and save points, those are hard to get now and the resort isn't even sold out. As well, if you're planning them for empty nester stuff, BW/BC being out of circulation means that Riviera becomes a lot more popular and hard to get into than OG Poly longhouses or PIT studios.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I’d controversially buy Poly direct for direct benefits now if needed (or resale, if not needed), and then buy Riviera resale as cheaply as possible down the road. While Riviera resale is a LOT less flexible, it is also much cheaper up front and has already taken the inevitable large depreciation hit.

With banking and borrowing a Riviera resale contract, I could probably make it work for me if that’s what I really wanted every three years or more. Plus, if this is post 2042, you will know what DVC does at Beach Club and Boardwalk, and those could be even better options than a Riviera contract!

 

[sethschroeder]

Poly dues are "less" because it costs you "more" to stay there.

If you are just using your POLY points elsewhere at 7 months and are fine with not traveling during busy periods that might sell out (Mid Fall, First week of December, ect are weird times that sell out in DVC) then you will be fine.

If your goal though is to use your points at POLY or RIV based on where you buy just make sure you do the math.

Additionally I haven't followed the discounts lately but I think you might want to get 150 points to get discount on the direct purchase plus get direct benefits. Then just rent out the few extra points (but be aware you might end up not wanting to rent them out haha).

 

[sethschroeder]

I’d controversially buy Poly direct for direct benefits now if needed (or resale, if not needed), and then buy Riviera resale as cheaply as possible down the road. While Riviera resale is a LOT less flexible, it is also much cheaper up front and has already taken the inevitable large depreciation hit.

In 20 years when all the OG resorts expire the "resale" benefit of Poly trades is primarily going to disappear. You will essentially have the choice of SSR/OKW at 11 months.

I honestly think POLY and VGF in 2043 will be sold out at 7 months solid with no flexibility as you see the percentages shift towards more points being not next to the parks in addition to more and more AUL points sold for people who only want to go there every couple years.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure it will be that drastic, but I do agree that the value premium for unrestricted points will go down over time---and potentially sooner than many think. I don't think we have to wait to '42 to get there. When there are only five years left at BCV/BWV, and no other Epcot or Epcot-ish options on the table, how much will it matter? Not none, because the MK area will be going strong for another 20 years, but still.

 

[AstroBlasters]

In 20 years when all the OG resorts expire the "resale" benefit of Poly trades is primarily going to disappear. You will essentially have the choice of SSR/OKW at 11 months.

I honestly think POLY and VGF in 2043 will be sold out at 7 months solid with no flexibility as you see the percentages shift towards more points being not next to the parks in addition to more and more AUL points sold for people who only want to go there every couple years.

Um….. only 5 resorts come offline in 2042….

BCV, BWV, BRV, VB, HHI….

That is not what I would describe as “all” the OG resorts.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buy...dC8zGNkAaIoCOsyMwKpbKwW28yx7O5HcaArMpEALw_wcB

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

^ My view is we are not near the bottom of RIV resale prices. Just my own guess, but I think it settles at just below $100 pp resale average.

 

[sethschroeder]

Um….. only 5 resorts come offline in 2042….

BCV, BWV, BRV, VB, HHI….

That is not what I would describe as “all” the OG resorts.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buy...dC8zGNkAaIoCOsyMwKpbKwW28yx7O5HcaArMpEALw_wcB

Every resort from 1996 through 2003 expires all in 2042 except for a small group of OKW extended contracts. I consider that the OG group of resorts. Starting in 2004 they started the new concept of all not all the resorts expiring in 2042.

I have done the math in the past and the math changes for what types of rooms are going to be available in 2043. Its going to get much harder to change at 7 months in to the resorts. New rooms at VGF/POLY slightly change the numbers but SSR/OKW still make up a huge percentage of the points that will be out there in addition to more AUL/VGC resale buyers trying to squeeze in to WDW.

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)

 

[sethschroeder]

^ My view is we are not near the bottom of RIV resale prices. Just my own guess, but I think it settles at just below $100 pp resale average.

Unlikely to happen as pricing will only continue to go up both direct and resale long term. Possible short term drop though depending on economic outlook.

 

[Brian Noble]

I have done the math

I have half a mind to go back and do that by points---the higher point values at BLT/GFV/PVB might help this comparison out a little bit. But, it is still going to be harder.

Unlikely to happen

I think the absolute value is less interesting than the relative value vs. the alternatives. I do think the RIV "relative penalty" will get worse before it gets better, but that will have more to do with the resort reaching maturity and the attendant increase in resale inventory.

 

[sethschroeder]

I have half a mind to go back and do that by points---the higher point values at BLT/GFV/PVB might help this comparison out a little bit. But, it is still going to be harder.

I have it by points and you can add the new rooms that were added at VGF/POLY. I would gladly update my old post on the subject to have the accurate numbers.

There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

 

[sethschroeder]

I have half a mind to go back and do that by points---the higher point values at BLT/GFV/PVB might help this comparison out a little bit. But, it is still going to be harder.


I think the absolute value is less interesting than the relative value vs. the alternatives. I do think the RIV "relative penalty" will get worse before it gets better, but that will have more to do with the resort reaching maturity and the attendant increase in resale inventory.

If you post it anywhere tag me or send me a PM as I would be interested.

I might be wrong in 2042 but my mindset is that high prices at VGF/POLY/CCV drive people to buy if they want to specifically stay there (like BCV now). Flip side the people willing to move around will keep buying resale SSR/OKW leading to a larger and larger group of people looking to make moves at 7 months.

 

[herewegooo]

We were thinking like this too when we purchased. 3 kids (6,10, 14 currently), but knew we'd want RIV once they are moved out. Ending up buying RIV, and our kids like it better than Poly! LOL. Worked out for us.