Please, DVC'rs, Convince me to become a Member!

[JimC]

To the upset DVCer:

We had a cruise cancelled on the Magic as well. She was delayed coming out of final fitting in Italy and our 20th anniversary cruise had to be rebooked for a year later, due to our schedules. DCL was fabulous in how they dealt with the situation. Much better than other cruise lines have in dealing with similar situations or worse.

From what I have heard about 11/30, they did everything they could to not cancel, but that virus could not be removed while at sea. Even the clean up crew got ill and DCL rented a section of a hotel to isolate them until they got well. Some nasty bug!

I understand the disappointment about the lost trip, but didn't DCL offer to rebook at a substantial discount? I don't know what they did about DVC points, but I suspect they did something.

No organization is perfect, as we all make mistakes from time to time. The true test of great organizations is how they recover when something does go wrong. And 11/30 was one of those chance things that happens, hardly DCL or DVC's fault, but it sounds like they have done more than most to make amends. Give them a break and put this into context. There are 39 more years of fun in this program, don't let one event spoil it.

ON WITH THE FUN!

 

[JimC]

To Dean:

How did you determine 25-28 years is when the value of points will begin to decrease? It is an interesting calculation, which I have not done, but just inuitively expected to be about five years sooner. What assumptions did you use, if you don't mind my asking?

 

[WDWLVR]

ObsessedwithDisney,

Mitch and Deb are correct. I would ignore IGTD's comments. She has gotten plenty of advice and compassion but she just won't let it go. Don't let the one bad apple spoil the whole bunch. If you look at all the other responses you got and if you read the board as a whole you will get a better idea if DVC is for you.

I think most of us have only one regret - that we didn't buy into DVC sooner.

I will give two pieces of advice:

First, buy where you want to stay. If you think OKW is best for you look for a resale there. Same with Boardwalk or Villas of Wilderness Lodge.

If you think you would like Beach Club bests suits you because of stormalong bay then you would be better going through Disney because I don't really think there are any resales out on that yet (or very few).

Second, DVC is best if you can plan well ahead. You get the greatest choice of accomodations at your home resort at 11 months and other resorts at 7 months. Sure plans may change but if you can plan ahead it will be best. If you are more the spur of the moment vaction taker then DVC might not be for you.

Hope this helps!

 

[WDWguruDH]

JimC,
I did some of the same math that Dean must have done before we purchased, determined break-even on the purchase in 5-7 years and a peak in price of about 25 years - the last 15 years probably seeing a decrease.
Since the real value for resale is comparing to WDW resort costs, I compared the cost of points vs resort room per night vs years left and a break even of about 18% of the time(7 years divided by 40 years left). The numbers I used were based on historical trends and they are obviously subject to change, but work for predictions. I used a 7% resort inflator and a 3.1% dues inflator. With these numbers, a deluxe room will cost about $1200 a night in 25 years and dues will be between $8-9 a point. Using the middle of the road - 1 bedroom in Choice season, 214 points a week. I won't bore you with all the numbers, but in order to maintain the 18% time break-even, you need about 14 years(break-even in 3 years) at the predicted 25 year prices. Anything beyond that and the break even point becomes longer, thus the value will decrease. All of this is for those of us buying now, those who purchase in the future, the numbers will be slightly different.
Now, take heart, because if those same numbers hold true, the decrease in resale value will be from their peak price, not today's prices - my calculations hold their value to be about $189 a point at year 25. Furthermore, my calculations show that the rental price per point would be about $70 in year 33 and $84 in year 36. So you could rent your points in one year and get your purchase price back...thus vacationing on just dues for 39 of the 40 years - What a deal!

 

[crisi]

IGTD does bring with her an important lesson - do not buy DVC to cruise, to use non DVC Disney hotels, or to trade out. Although all these things are possible - most vets don't see them as the "best use" of points. You generally can't cruise on points any cheaper than paying cash and renting the points (or just paying cash), and the number of points it takes to cruise goes up every year. Same thing with staying at AKL or the Poly. Non-DVC reservations have additional limitations. Although flexibility is a hallmark of the DVC system, it is not as flexible as paying cash - you will end up disappointed on occations if you can't plan ahead (although you will be able to make some spur of the moment arrangments - its not always possible), you will end up disappointed if your home resort is BCVs and you really want to stay at VWL over Christmas. Don't buy DVC to get treated by Disney like "family." They are a corporation and you have bought a timeshare - they are not going to be eternally grateful and give you things like huge discounts.

 

[MarkRG]

I would like to chime in here. If you're looking at it specifically on the dollar value alone, it's probably not for you. I'm not even going to bother to go into all the math the others have done other than to say, you will, at most, in raw dollars, break even. It is no 'discount'. All I ever read from people who got into it looking for a discount is complaints. But what you get for that money spent now is worth it in the long run. For the next number of years, all you'll have to worry about is the dues, your time there is paid for. If you go regularly, it makes it so much simpler to do so. Then there is the accomodations. We just got back from staying in a moderate, non-points, all ours are currently spoken for. It was very evident to us the yawning chasm of difference between them and the dvc accomodations. Not that the moderates are bad, the DVC ones are just so much better.

Now, for the out of dvc uses - is it the best $ value use? Each application has different values. You can make a killing going to Hawaii on points. You can also save a great deal over cash reservations in a lot of the other hotels that are part of the package. NO, DCL(Disney Cruise Line) is not a good value points wise, and I honestly don't expect it to ever be. I don't understand why people get so upset at that - it's not DVC, and in high demand already. And the point tradeout works different for DCL than the outside ones. With the outside groups they can offer to their group stay time in DVC, in equivalent points, that's why we get such a good deal on those. Disney stays are in high demand. DCL can't do that, I think the points that go there just get cashed(basically; I'm trying to remember it from a chat session with WebmasterDoc).

You're going to really have to make your own decision. We have been absolutely sure it was the right one for us The only advice I can offer, is as you look into it, choose your geography well - Each DVC has pluses and minuses in respect to the parks.

• Old Key West is the most remote and in turn has a very home-away-from-home feel. Their minus is the bus transportation. It's a very spread out resort, with numerous stops.
  
• Villas at Wilderness Lodge is the closest to the Magic Kingdom, but the most remote from all the other parks. The WL theming carrys over well here.
  
• Beach Club and Boardwalk Villas are a very short walk to Epcot, a walk thru Epcot and a monorail ride or bus ride to the Magic Kingdom, and a boat ride or a longer walk to MGM Studios. Buses here tend to be spotty too.
  
• The other two Hilton Head Island and Vero Beach are off proeperty and both are wonderful beachside resorts, but are, off property.

I think that covers it all nicely