The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[Intr3pid]

Do you have an example of a previous pandemic that had an extremely effective vaccine that had to be adjusted to mutations for several cycles to get the pandemic under control? I know of adjustments post-pandemic, but none to actually control the pandemic. Many pandemics never had an effective vaccine and naturally ended within years of starting.

Pretty much all of them. The smallpox vaccine was developed in the early 1960s. It took until 1967 for WHO to coordinate a focused eradication plan. Globally, there were 132K cases in 1967, down to 34K in 1970, back up to 220K in 1974 and finally less than 5K in 1977.

WHO's polio eradication program - using the two vaccines - began after 1987, and the global polio cases took five years to go down from about 280K in 1987 to 100K in 1992.

The measles vaccine was introduced in 1964, and it took until 1968 for the US cases to drop from 450K annually to about 50K per year.

The only exception is H1NI, which WHO admits it may have over-reacted to. It was an influenza variant. More than 30% of the population already had immunity to it, its R0 was 1.4 (compared to the current COVID-19 R0 of 5.7), and eventually, all that was needed was a reformulation of the existing influenza vaccine. The US had to destroy a third of its stockpile just within a few months.

Where are you getting this information? I may be missing it, but it isn't something I have read. So far, I think the general consensus is that there is a fair chance the existing vaccines will work against mutations due to the way this virus mutates, and even if the vaccine doesn't offer perfect protection against mutations, it could reduce the severity of infections.

See my timeline for how we get to those minimum two years.

Dr. Fauci seems to agree with me. In December, Dr. Fauci said that "if the vaccination campaign goes well, we could approach herd immunity by summer’s end and 'normality that is close to where we were before' by the end of 2021." Obviously, the campaign has gotten off to a rocky start, and he specifically says it is subject to widespread willingness to vaccinate, but I still see no reason it can't get back on track. Even if we run months behind what Facui was predicting, that doesn't put us into many years before we return to normal. And he certainly isn't saying mutations are going to take us two years to stamp out, as you state above.

Fauci is a public health official - he can't rush policy statements just like WHO can't. Just within the last month, two new strains - B117 and 501.V2 - have emerged. He is now changing his tone.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...ting-100-million-in-100-days/?sh=28d203b343ac
Another one from Japan is also making the rounds, and WHO has an earful for everyone.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/who...ghly-problematic-could-stress-hospitals-.html
Because the mutations are happening so early, it's looking increasingly likely that one of them will eventually break through the existing vaccines' training regime. This isn't any sort of fear-mongering; it is expected and simply means that we may have to return to the clinics next year - and keep at it until the mutations start to run dry.

Secondly, the duration of the immunity against the virus is far from clear. Even if there aren't any new adverse mutations, the immunity will likely fade away over time. As long as a highly contagious virus is circulating somewhere in the world, any protection is temporary. There are too many global challenges in vaccine rollouts, logistics, and availability to get it all done simultaneously as if with Thanos' snap.

The hope is, next year, there will be far more supply available - along with new treatments - so we will have a major dent in the transmission and severity of this virus. But there is no shortcut.

I have read other well-regarded experts predicting that we will shift from the pandemic stage to the endemic stage in the next few months.

Which experts? Let's see some links. Any 'expert' opinion before the new variants came along is moot at this point.

We have a fundamental difference of opinion on what to expect at this point. I understand your argument, but I think it is more of a worst-case scenario than the optimistic timeline you think it is. I also think there is only so much tolerance for continued closures of businesses and the like, and if the vaccine doesn't get us to normal this year, people will demand it anyway - particularly after the vulnerable have been protected. Time will tell.

The tolerance question is irrelevant. If there is a public health crisis, there is no choice. There is no evidence either that most people want protective measures to go away if the virus is still out there. If the reverse was true, you wouldn't see the world shut down right now the way it is - almost a year into the mess. Instead, life is adapting. Retail and travel industries are hurting but working hard to transform - while tech and healthcare have entered an entirely new stratosphere.

More importantly, taking safety precautions isn't the same thing as shutting down businesses and forcing aggressive lockdowns. An open economy can very easily coexist with these precautions, and this coexistence will be crucial in helping us eventually return to a new normal.

 

[mevelandry]

Old age is one of the primary factors; the other primary factor is obesity. In the U.S., 50% of hospitalized cases are people who are clinically obese. Once these groups (the elderly & those with major underlying health conditions, particularly obesity) are vaccinated, Covid will be much less of a societal threat.

As I said, in Canada, it doesn't look like younger people with comorbidities will be vaccinated until June. I doubt health measures for travelers will change until then.

 

[jlwhitney]

In light of obesity being a major risk factor, it strikes me as very strange that gyms are closed in so many places. I am trying my best to stay just under the obese classification.

And sad reality is all of this won't get the majority to realize how unhealthy they are living and how important it is too keep things undercontrol. Having high blood pressure or diabetes isn't a huge issue if they are managed, but so many are poorly managed.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

According to statistics compiled by IHME, yesterday's US COVID-19 cases were at their lowest levels since November 9.

That is great news! A lot of counties probably had some reporting anomalies due to MLK holiday, but it does seem that the most recent wave has broken. I just don’t think it was quite as drastic as reported yesterday.

What doesn’t lag (much) by reporting delays is the hospitalization numbers. Those are showing great promise (though still a bit early to tell).

Israel is a great nation to watch. They’re at ~1/3 population vaccinated and are already showing some signs of promise. We have a way to go here, but the light at the end of tunnel is brightening.

 

[jane01jp]

That is great news! A lot of counties probably had some reporting anomalies due to MLK holiday, but it does seem that the most recent wave has broken. I just don’t think it was quite as drastic as reported yesterday.

What doesn’t lag (much) by reporting delays is the hospitalization numbers. Those are showing great promise (though still a bit early to tell).

Israel is a great nation to watch. They’re at ~1/3 population vaccinated and are already showing some signs of promise. We have a way to go here, but the light at the end of tunnel is brightening.

I knew the holiday would result in lesser counts, but the interval from November 9-January 18 also includes Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years.

 

[brentm77]

Debating what the future holds as if there is some "true" answer that can be obtained now is a bit aimless. So I will leave a couple of counterpoints and probably leave it at that if you want to have the last word. While it has been interesting, I think we have passed the point of diminishing returns.

Pretty much all of them.

None of the examples you listed are an example of a pandemic drawn out because a highly-effective vaccine had to be adjusted for mutations. Those examples were either drawn out because of vaccine administration issues/lack of public buy-in, or the need to develop a better vaccine - not due to mutations.

See my timeline for how we get to those minimum two years.

I'm sorry, I misunderstood your point to be something the experts were claiming would occur. I haven't read any experts who are predicting two cycles of vaccines to "stamp out" mutations. Again, I don't think that is out of the realm of possibilities, just that it is if things go wrong, not right (see Fauci's comments from your linked article, below).

He is now changing his tone.

I read the article twice and don't see a change in his expected timeline from the earlier article. In fact, he says, "“If we can get … the overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated, we'd be in very good shape and could beat even the mutant.” The article seems to support my position that your timeline is not the optimistic version of possible outcomes.

Which experts? Let's see some links.

No thanks. I'm not really interested in going back through the hundreds of articles I have read in the past several weeks. I read at least two different articles with interviews of epidemiologists stating COVID would likely shift to an epidemic in the next several months. It's cool if you think I am just making it up, as I have nothing to prove.

The tolerance question is irrelevant.

Not really. If the average person no longer supports restrictions, governments will be powerless to enforce them, and businesses too if they want to keep customers. Right or wrong, we are already seeing this in pockets of the U.S. Keep in mind, that even during past pandemics/epidemics, most precautions were regional and short lived. We are in unprecedented territory already. It's surprising we have had general compliance this long, and I don't think the average person's patience will hold out for years on end. But, I will concede this is a less relevant point compared to when the need for those restrictions will subside.

More importantly, taking safety precautions isn't the same thing as shutting down businesses and forcing aggressive lockdowns. An open economy can very easily coexist with these precautions, and this coexistence will be crucial in helping us eventually return to a new normal.

That's a fair point. There will likely be longer tolerance of light-handed precautions versus closed businesses and the like. But I think even destinations like Disney will see more pushback and fewer customers willing to spend a fortune to vacation under intrusive precautions as time goes on. Keep in mind, I was willing and happy to visit WDW with those restrictions, but would not be willing to cruise that way. I know many feel the same way. I think the percentage of customers willing to cruise like that is on the smaller end and they will burn through that group rather quickly.

In any case, I have exhausted my interest in debating something that truly cannot be known until we actually experience it. I wish you well.

 

[brentm77]

As I said, in Canada, it doesn't look like younger people with comorbidities will be vaccinated until June. I doubt health measures for travelers will change until then.

After going through nearly a year of this pandemic, June seems so close now. If we can resume normal travel mid-summer, I think many of us would be ecstatic. I know I would.

 

[mevelandry]

After going through nearly a year of this pandemic, June seems so close now. If we can resume normal travel mid-summer, I think many of us would be ecstatic. I know I would.

Same.

 

[tidefan]

So, up until today's numbers (FWIW, Tuesdays are usually our highest weekly numbers as they tend to include all weekend), our state (AL) had 7 straight days of decreasing case counts, something we hadn't seen since October. Also, our numbers today, even though they were slightly higher (around 2,500 confirmed+probable) are still half of what they were running a couple of weeks ago. Looking at our 7-day case numbers and more importantly, our 7-day positivity rates, numbers here are definitely heading in the better direction (finally!). Not so much hospitalizations yet, but those tend to lag a week or two, so hopefully, we will see them come down in the next week.

On a side note, I don't really like that they include "probable" numbers as I now have firsthand experience with that. Last month, my DD was around a friend that had strep throat and her throat started hurting, had a slight fever, and her taste was off a bit (still could smell, though). Called the Dr and they said to come to take a COVID test first before they would see her. So (this was on a Wednesday) she did the rapid test and it came back negative. The MD saw her that afternoon and both the Strep and Flu tests came back negative. The MD said "she probably has COVID, quarantine for 10 days unless you get worse" and sent her home. She sat in her room the rest of the week and weekend. The State counted her as "probable" and was reported. So, we were taking her temp, etc, the whole time and from Thursday on, her temp was back to normal, the throat was better and she could taste just fine. I really didn't like them saying she had COVID with no positive test. So, on the following Monday, the University was offering exit testing (which is the PCR) test, because we wanted to know, she took that and it again came back negative. As you may know, it is a 5% or so false negative on the Antigen test, but less so on the PCR, however, with 2 negative tests, if you know statistics, that's a less than 5% of 5% (or 00.25%) of a false negative on two consecutive tests. So, I don't think she had it, but the state still counted her as positive, so I have less faith in the "probable" category at this time. It seemed to us that some of the urgent care/family practice folks are just calling everything COVID so they don't have to spend a lot of time on other tests, but I digress...

As to cruising, I had a thought based on the way that the vaccine campaigns are rolling out. I can definitely see some lines (I am thinking, say, Holland America, Celebrity, and Princess) that the average age is a bit older could potentially actually make a vaccination requirement work, as this subgroup will probably be finished by late spring/summer. As to the DCL's/RCCLs/Carnival's of the world that have a much higher rate of the 0- 40 age range, I think that may be longer out.

The big unknown, and I think potential game-changer in all of this is the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. It has distinct advantages in that it stays longer, can be refrigerated instead of frozen, and most importantly, is a one-shot vaccine. It is expected to have results (though they probably already have these internally) to apply for an EUA in the next week or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...-new-vaccines-are-submitted-approval-n1254543

If this is effective, it will add to the supply, but the potential to give a one-shot vaccine is huge, if it is approved. There were some rumblings that they may not have it all ready to go out of the gate (i.e. - February), but J&J stated that they would be on course for March/April with a large supply of shots. I think this is the thing to watch that could move things one way or the other...

 

[MomOTwins]

On a side note, I don't really like that they include "probable" numbers as I now have firsthand experience with that. Last month, my DD was around a friend that had strep throat and her throat started hurting, had a slight fever, and her taste was off a bit (still could smell, though). Called the Dr and they said to come to take a COVID test first before they would see her. So (this was on a Wednesday) she did the rapid test and it came back negative. The MD saw her that afternoon and both the Strep and Flu tests came back negative. The MD said "she probably has COVID, quarantine for 10 days unless you get worse" and sent her home. She sat in her room the rest of the week and weekend. The State counted her as "probable" and was reported. So, we were taking her temp, etc, the whole time and from Thursday on, her temp was back to normal, the throat was better and she could taste just fine. I really didn't like them saying she had COVID with no positive test. So, on the following Monday, the University was offering exit testing (which is the PCR) test, because we wanted to know, she took that and it again came back negative. As you may know, it is a 5% or so false negative on the Antigen test, but less so on the PCR, however, with 2 negative tests, if you know statistics, that's a less than 5% of 5% (or 00.25%) of a false negative on two consecutive tests. So, I don't think she had it, but the state still counted her as positive, so I have less faith in the "probable" category at this time. It seemed to us that some of the urgent care/family practice folks are just calling everything COVID so they don't have to spend a lot of time on other tests, but I digress...

It may well be that your DD didn't have it, but 5% false negative is not what I have been reading--antigen tests are more like 20-30% false negatives. Also, since your friend stopped being symptomatic days before taking the PCR, it is not surprising she had a negative result--that could well be a "true negative" rather than a false one because the virus had subsided to a not detectible level and she was, in fact, no longer covid-positive at that time.

I note, for example, I tested positive and had all the classic symptoms. My DH waited until 5 days later to get tested and was negative, even though we are pretty sure he must have had it too. The same thing happened to my in-laws. These tests are really designed for active infections--not after the infection is cleared up.

 

[AquaDame]

So, up until today's numbers (FWIW, Tuesdays are usually our highest weekly numbers as they tend to include all weekend), our state (AL) had 7 straight days of decreasing case counts, something we hadn't seen since October. Also, our numbers today, even though they were slightly higher (around 2,500 confirmed+probable) are still half of what they were running a couple of weeks ago. Looking at our 7-day case numbers and more importantly, our 7-day positivity rates, numbers here are definitely heading in the better direction (finally!). Not so much hospitalizations yet, but those tend to lag a week or two, so hopefully, we will see them come down in the next week.

On a side note, I don't really like that they include "probable" numbers as I now have firsthand experience with that. Last month, my DD was around a friend that had strep throat and her throat started hurting, had a slight fever, and her taste was off a bit (still could smell, though). Called the Dr and they said to come to take a COVID test first before they would see her. So (this was on a Wednesday) she did the rapid test and it came back negative. The MD saw her that afternoon and both the Strep and Flu tests came back negative. The MD said "she probably has COVID, quarantine for 10 days unless you get worse" and sent her home. She sat in her room the rest of the week and weekend. The State counted her as "probable" and was reported. So, we were taking her temp, etc, the whole time and from Thursday on, her temp was back to normal, the throat was better and she could taste just fine. I really didn't like them saying she had COVID with no positive test. So, on the following Monday, the University was offering exit testing (which is the PCR) test, because we wanted to know, she took that and it again came back negative. As you may know, it is a 5% or so false negative on the Antigen test, but less so on the PCR, however, with 2 negative tests, if you know statistics, that's a less than 5% of 5% (or 00.25%) of a false negative on two consecutive tests. So, I don't think she had it, but the state still counted her as positive, so I have less faith in the "probable" category at this time. It seemed to us that some of the urgent care/family practice folks are just calling everything COVID so they don't have to spend a lot of time on other tests, but I digress...

As to cruising, I had a thought based on the way that the vaccine campaigns are rolling out. I can definitely see some lines (I am thinking, say, Holland America, Celebrity, and Princess) that the average age is a bit older could potentially actually make a vaccination requirement work, as this subgroup will probably be finished by late spring/summer. As to the DCL's/RCCLs/Carnival's of the world that have a much higher rate of the 0- 40 age range, I think that may be longer out.

The big unknown, and I think potential game-changer in all of this is the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. It has distinct advantages in that it stays longer, can be refrigerated instead of frozen, and most importantly, is a one-shot vaccine. It is expected to have results (though they probably already have these internally) to apply for an EUA in the next week or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...-new-vaccines-are-submitted-approval-n1254543

If this is effective, it will add to the supply, but the potential to give a one-shot vaccine is huge, if it is approved. There were some rumblings that they may not have it all ready to go out of the gate (i.e. - February), but J&J stated that they would be on course for March/April with a large supply of shots. I think this is the thing to watch that could move things one way or the other...

That does seem a bit rich that they told her it was likely covid when she was around someone with strep AND the covid test came back negative. I've had that twice now (both times as an adult oddly) and both times the test came back negative, both rapid and the longer one. However both times my doctor said nevermind we know its strep, here are the antibiotics. It probably did help that we could see the telltale white stuff back there...

I admit I'm excited for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine also. I like that they use a nonpropigating adenovirus (cold virus) for it, it lasts in the fridge for up to three months AND its only one shot? Sign me up!

 

[sullivan.kscott]

So, up until today's numbers (FWIW, Tuesdays are usually our highest weekly numbers as they tend to include all weekend), our state (AL) had 7 straight days of decreasing case counts, something we hadn't seen since October. Also, our numbers today, even though they were slightly higher (around 2,500 confirmed+probable) are still half of what they were running a couple of weeks ago. Looking at our 7-day case numbers and more importantly, our 7-day positivity rates, numbers here are definitely heading in the better direction (finally!). Not so much hospitalizations yet, but those tend to lag a week or two, so hopefully, we will see them come down in the next week.

On a side note, I don't really like that they include "probable" numbers as I now have firsthand experience with that. Last month, my DD was around a friend that had strep throat and her throat started hurting, had a slight fever, and her taste was off a bit (still could smell, though). Called the Dr and they said to come to take a COVID test first before they would see her. So (this was on a Wednesday) she did the rapid test and it came back negative. The MD saw her that afternoon and both the Strep and Flu tests came back negative. The MD said "she probably has COVID, quarantine for 10 days unless you get worse" and sent her home. She sat in her room the rest of the week and weekend. The State counted her as "probable" and was reported. So, we were taking her temp, etc, the whole time and from Thursday on, her temp was back to normal, the throat was better and she could taste just fine. I really didn't like them saying she had COVID with no positive test. So, on the following Monday, the University was offering exit testing (which is the PCR) test, because we wanted to know, she took that and it again came back negative. As you may know, it is a 5% or so false negative on the Antigen test, but less so on the PCR, however, with 2 negative tests, if you know statistics, that's a less than 5% of 5% (or 00.25%) of a false negative on two consecutive tests. So, I don't think she had it, but the state still counted her as positive, so I have less faith in the "probable" category at this time. It seemed to us that some of the urgent care/family practice folks are just calling everything COVID so they don't have to spend a lot of time on other tests, but I digress...

As to cruising, I had a thought based on the way that the vaccine campaigns are rolling out. I can definitely see some lines (I am thinking, say, Holland America, Celebrity, and Princess) that the average age is a bit older could potentially actually make a vaccination requirement work, as this subgroup will probably be finished by late spring/summer. As to the DCL's/RCCLs/Carnival's of the world that have a much higher rate of the 0- 40 age range, I think that may be longer out.

The big unknown, and I think potential game-changer in all of this is the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. It has distinct advantages in that it stays longer, can be refrigerated instead of frozen, and most importantly, is a one-shot vaccine. It is expected to have results (though they probably already have these internally) to apply for an EUA in the next week or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...-new-vaccines-are-submitted-approval-n1254543

If this is effective, it will add to the supply, but the potential to give a one-shot vaccine is huge, if it is approved. There were some rumblings that they may not have it all ready to go out of the gate (i.e. - February), but J&J stated that they would be on course for March/April with a large supply of shots. I think this is the thing to watch that could move things one way or the other...

Especially if J&J’s projected 80% effectiveness holds. 100% of early participants developed antibodies, but that may not translate to widespread protection. It’s no 95% of the other two, but the simpler logistics would absolutely make this a game changer.

 

[bbel]

8 hours today at the vaccination centre.
Over 1,200 vaccinated, including many centarians.
Not bad considering we're no where near a city...

 

[AZMermaid]

I got my parents signed up today (65+) in AZ and signed myself up for #2 (teacher). There’s a light.... I just need to make it 17 more days... plus the wait time afterwards! It feels so close!

 

[tidefan]

It may well be that your DD didn't have it, but 5% false negative is not what I have been reading--antigen tests are more like 20-30% false negatives. Also, since your friend stopped being symptomatic days before taking the PCR, it is not surprising she had a negative result--that could well be a "true negative" rather than a false one because the virus had subsided to a not detectible level and she was, in fact, no longer covid-positive at that time.

I note, for example, I tested positive and had all the classic symptoms. My DH waited until 5 days later to get tested and was negative, even though we are pretty sure he must have had it too. The same thing happened to my in-laws. These tests are really designed for active infections--not after the infection is cleared up.

So, the strep test has an even higher false negative rate. FWIW, our DD was tested the week before in the sentinel testing program and was negative then as well.

 

[tidefan]

Another big plus is that more people are getting the vaccine and we now have people waiting to get the vaccine as opposed to the last month where doses were given out to a very narrow group. Here in AL, we moved to Phase 1b on Monday. In the last week, we've gone from 40,000 doses administered to almost 160,000 as of today. According to AL.com:

• Phase 1B: The next tier to receive the vaccine includes Alabamians age 75 or older, as well as people considered frontline essential workers. This includes police and fire fighters, U.S. Postal Service workers, corrections officers, food and agriculture workers, manufacturing workers, grocery store workers, public transit workers. Phase 1B also includes those who work in the education sector, such as teachers, support staff members, as well as child care workers.

This is a bit touch and go, as in our town, most police and fire were already vaccinated in Phase 1a (it is my understanding that they got a lot of the "leftover, end-of-day" doses from the Hospital, because when a tray of Pfizer came out of the freezer, it had a certain amount of time to be used, or it was to be thrown away...). I don't know that there has been too much guidance on this, but hopefully, vaccine schedules will pick up...

 

[Cheburashka]

As I said, in Canada, it doesn't look like younger people with comorbidities will be vaccinated until June. I doubt health measures for travelers will change until then.

DCL's primary customer base is in the USA, and vaccination for those with comorbidities has already begun here. I agree that Canada will remain closed down a lot longer than the USA, and I see no hope for Alaska cruises this year as a result.

 

[Intr3pid]

None of the examples you listed are an example of a pandemic drawn out because a highly-effective vaccine had to be adjusted for mutations. Those examples were either drawn out because of vaccine administration issues/lack of public buy-in, or the need to develop a better vaccine - not due to mutations.

Every example provided to you proves that vaccine administrations for global pandemics take several years to bring things under control. It is a combination of the mutations, the vaccine's waning immunity, delays in its global rollouts, challenges in logistics, and uneven access. If a virus is highly contagious, these challenges will allow it to continue to infect populations while you vaccinate.

Let's not confuse a vaccine's efficacy at an individual level with how the virus is brought under control globally. As the examples prove, global vaccination is a drawn-out process, and you need multiple stabs at a pandemic rather than a quick snap of a finger.

I read the article twice and don't see a change in his expected timeline from the earlier article.

You can see what you want to see. To me, his message is clear:

The infectious disease specialists added that if those mutations of the virus have an impact on the effectiveness of vaccines, “we’re going to have to make some modifications.” Fauci said the new variants point to the need to double down on public health prevention measures like mask-wearing and social distancing as well as implement a speedy vaccination campaign.

As is WHO's message about having to tweak the vaccines in the future.

I want to make sure that this point is not lost. Opening up the economy doesn't mean you go back to your old ways as if nothing happened. The economy can open up and economic activity can return with health and safety protocols in place. The timeline projected is of a new normal taking hold. That doesn't mean we will be shut down till then. It's not a switch - it's a process.

Europe opened up last summer but removed too many controls too fast and relapsed into a second wave. But, it learnt from what worked - and what didn't - and we should see a more resilient opening next summer. These iterations will continue until vaccination numbers globally start to reach herd immunity, mutations drop off, and remaining cases become isolated.

No thanks. I'm not really interested in going back through the hundreds of articles I have read in the past several weeks. I read at least two different articles with interviews of epidemiologists stating COVID would likely shift to an epidemic in the next several months. It's cool if you think I am just making it up, as I have nothing to prove.

You could have provided a link rather than writing 4 sentences going all around it.

Not really. If the average person no longer supports restrictions, governments will be powerless to enforce them, and businesses too if they want to keep customers. Right or wrong, we are already seeing this in pockets of the U.S. Keep in mind, that even during past pandemics/epidemics, most precautions were regional and short lived. We are in unprecedented territory already.

There will always be pockets of resistance to any change. There will always be a subset that will stage, say, anti-mask rallies. Or flout rules, or charge on to your legislature. I consider them of little consequence and have full confidence in a government's ability to deal with them - and put them behind bars if needed.

This is the only pandemic after 100 years which has the whole world shut down. Any comparison with an epidemic or another regional virus is moot. Maybe help me with an example of a contagious global pandemic that was dispatched with just the first year of vaccinations?

I know many feel the same way. I think the percentage of customers willing to cruise like that is on the smaller end and they will burn through that group rather quickly.

Not much evidence of it. Cruise bookings being reported by the cruise lines are very healthy. Of course, occupancy allowed is lower, but the pricing is higher. (Cruising demand - in general - is tempered without anything sailing.) The resorts costing similar amounts of money are running full to the numbers they are allowed. I expect more people to embrace the precautions and come out of hiding.

 

[AquaDame]

DCL's primary customer base is in the USA, and vaccination for those with comorbidities has already begun here. I agree that Canada will remain closed down a lot longer than the USA, and I see no hope for Alaska cruises this year as a result.

Depending on where you are, it hasn't. Here in Oregon we've still only managed healthcare workers and long-term care facilities. They are finally almost ready to move on from 1A, though they had to backtrack on offering it to 65+ next and instead switched gears (after allowing people to sign up, mind you) to inoculate teachers first in the hopes they can bring back in person school soon.

They've estimated that just doing 65+ here will take twelve weeks of supply.

"If that schedule holds, it will be mid-May before Oregon will start vaccinating frontline workers or Oregonians with health risks who are under the age of 65, not to mention younger, healthier, less-at-risk Oregonians."

https://www.wweek.com/news/state/20...-vaccination-of-oregonians-ages-65-and-older/
At this rate my husband and I may get it at the beginning of autumn... maybe we'll be through the waiting period for it to be fully effective by Halloween? I'd laugh but I'm too busy crying, or maybe its the other way around.

 

[mevelandry]

DCL's primary customer base is in the USA, and vaccination for those with comorbidities has already begun here. I agree that Canada will remain closed down a lot longer than the USA, and I see no hope for Alaska cruises this year as a result.

We‘ll see what happens. April should be a game changer.