Opinions needed: Hardest rooms to secure without 11 month window

We have no set time of year we commit to visiting, so season doesn't matter. With contracts that go out another 40 years I'm not going to let current conditions push me too hard. So the fact that summer works best for the kids now doesn't mean it will be that way for the majority of the life of the contract. We are just curious about what are the really hard to get spots. If the cabins and bungalows are not that hard great. As we think about it more we are narrowing it down to resorts that have contracts that expire in 2060 or later. The later the better. Setting aside location and cost for the moment, how does VGF vs. CCV vs. Poly vs. Aulani compare in terms of the benefit of 11 month booking?
 
VGF vs. CCV vs. Poly vs. Aulani compare in terms of the benefit of 11 month booking

From what I have read and looked at other availability charts elsewhere:

CCV - Only way to get a Studio (Max 4 Guests though in Studio/1BR), everything hard Fall->Christmas
VGF - Studios hard to get Studios at 7 months year round, 1BR/2BR harder during fall->christmas
POLY - Studios hard to get Fall->Christmas
AUL - Specific rooms are hit or miss year round and high season in June is hard without owning there
 
I worked with someone whose husband did the booking and they never got shut out in July for AKV C at 11 months,

But, more reports here that people do so I still think if you are not on at 8 am at 11 months, and get it booked, it’s not going to be an easy one,

Of course, I have secured them to as a non owner by stalking...just never ended up keeping it...nothing is impossible that is for sure!
I agree if you don’t book or try to book at 8am when the window opens your chances of getting a value or club level studio is very small.
 

In the past I have tried booking both value and club level studios multiple times just to check how hard it would be. This have been documented in a previous thread about this topic.

The only time I had problems was for the first week of 10/1/21 during the anniversary. The remain time I tried I had success. I know my small test is anything but scientific but to me it shows that club and value studios at AKV is fairly easy bookable as long as you see the availability for day you are trying to book.
My anecdotal evidence is the opposite. I've tried 3 days in a row to book value 11 months out at 8am on the dot, and have not succeeded yet.
 
We have no set time of year we commit to visiting, so season doesn't matter. With contracts that go out another 40 years I'm not going to let current conditions push me too hard. So the fact that summer works best for the kids now doesn't mean it will be that way for the majority of the life of the contract. We are just curious about what are the really hard to get spots. If the cabins and bungalows are not that hard great. As we think about it more we are narrowing it down to resorts that have contracts that expire in 2060 or later. The later the better. Setting aside location and cost for the moment, how does VGF vs. CCV vs. Poly vs. Aulani compare in terms of the benefit of 11 month booking?
From what I have read and looked at other availability charts elsewhere:

CCV - Only way to get a Studio (Max 4 Guests though in Studio/1BR), everything hard Fall->Christmas
VGF - Studios hard to get Studios at 7 months year round, 1BR/2BR harder during fall->christmas
POLY - Studios hard to get Fall->Christmas
AUL - Specific rooms are hit or miss year round and high season in June is hard without owning there
Not sure if you are considering direct, but it's worth noting that all 4 resorts offer Fixed Weeks. If there's one time of year in a specific room type that you'd want to guarantee, and you were planning on purchasing some of the points direct, I would absolutely consider getting a FW. The beauty of FWs is that you can always cancel them to use the points elsewhere if you aren't going to go during a specific time of year, and if you DO travel during high demand times, it protects you against point increases over time. We bought FWs at CCV for week 44 (runDisney event week for Wine & Dine), 47 (Thanksgiving most years) and 48 (start of Christmas season). We don't plan to use them every year, and the year we go in Week 44, we are unlikely to go 47 & 48 and vice-versa. But we got them to guarantee we have those weeks whenever we DO want to use them. Those weeks cost us 118 points for the Studio FW, and in 2022, those weeks are 121, 126, and 115 respectively, so we are benefiting from the fixed cost of those weeks, too. (Those weeks were 107 each when CCV opened).
 
Not sure if you are considering direct, but it's worth noting that all 4 resorts offer Fixed Weeks. If there's one time of year in a specific room type that you'd want to guarantee, and you were planning on purchasing some of the points direct, I would absolutely consider getting a FW. The beauty of FWs is that you can always cancel them to use the points elsewhere if you aren't going to go during a specific time of year, and if you DO travel during high demand times, it protects you against point increases over time. We bought FWs at CCV for week 44 (runDisney event week for Wine & Dine), 47 (Thanksgiving most years) and 48 (start of Christmas season). We don't plan to use them every year, and the year we go in Week 44, we are unlikely to go 47 & 48 and vice-versa. But we got them to guarantee we have those weeks whenever we DO want to use them. Those weeks cost us 118 points for the Studio FW, and in 2022, those weeks are 121, 126, and 115 respectively, so we are benefiting from the fixed cost of those weeks, too. (Those weeks were 107 each when CCV opened).

I generally prefer resale as I don't see the value of the extra cost of direct, but the fixed week item you raise is something I was not familiar with. I'll have to look in to how that works.
 
What are the experiences you just can't get without using home resort points. Something that might tip the scales in favour of buying at one resort versus another because you just need it to get into the resort at a specific time or special room.
By “experiences” I’m guessing that you mean the Wow factor?

If you want to see MK fireworks from your balcony and watch the park wake up in the morning, you’ll need to own at BLT to get a theme park view for more than a random night here or there.

If you want a week in a grand villa with a pool table and savanna view, you’d best own at AKV.

If you want to be able to sleep 5 people in the only club level room available to DVC members, you will need a 2BR at AKV. Since all of the 2BR club level villas are lock-offs (and studios book earlier than the 11-month mark), you won’t get one unless you own there.

If you want more than a night or two in a BWV grand villa, complete with its gorgeous view of Crescent Lake and low point requirements, you need to own there for most times during the year.
 



















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