OKW resale price trend

[okw2012]

Hi,
I am a relatively new OKW owner (2 trips as DVC member so far) and I am trying to assess the long term resale price trend for OKW (2042). From the ROFR threads I found on DIS I was able to estimate median sale price since 2006:

2006: 86$
2007: 78$ (-7%)
2008: 74$ (-5%)
2009: 70$ (-6%)
2010: 63$ (-10%)
2011: 52$ (-17%)
2012: 55$ (+6%)
2013: 57$ (+4% so far this year)

Any idea where I could find earlier data? I did find the historical DVD prices. What strikes me is that for 2006 the resale price was much closer than today to the DVD price (95$).

 

[RobDoc]

Hi,
I am a relatively new OKW owner (2 trips as DVC member so far) and I am trying to assess the long term resale price trend for OKW (2042). From the ROFR threads I found on DIS I was able to estimate median sale price since 2006:

2006: 86$
2007: 78$ (-7%)
2008: 74$ (-5%)
2009: 70$ (-6%)
2010: 63$ (-10%)
2011: 52$ (-17%)
2012: 55$ (+6%)
2013: 57$ (+4% so far this year)

Any idea where I could find earlier data? I did find the historical DVD prices. What strikes me is that for 2006 the resale price was much closer than today to the DVD price (95$).

You may need to see if one of the resale brokers can assist with real data. Otherwise, even with the ROFR thread, you are using anecdotal information based on what a pretty small subset of purchasers have reported on the internet.

We purchased our first OKW resale back in 1998 and paid $53 and another later the same year at $50 - the first of those was an offer below asking price, the second was at asking price and both were before there was any real internet influence regarding "How to buy resale".

There are a lot of factors to consider, IMO - especially as the time gets closer to the unextended expiration date and depending on DVC's use of ROFR (or not).

Good luck with your project!

 

[okw2012]

Hi,
I am a relatively new OKW owner (2 trips as DVC member so far) and I am trying to assess the long term resale price trend for OKW (2042). From the ROFR threads I found on DIS I was able to estimate median sale price since 2006:

2006: 86$
2007: 78$ (-7%)
2008: 74$ (-5%)
2009: 70$ (-6%)
2010: 63$ (-10%)
2011: 52$ (-17%)
2012: 55$ (+6%)
2013: 57$ (+4% so far this year)

Any idea where I could find earlier data? I did find the historical DVD prices. What strikes me is that for 2006 the resale price was much closer than today to the DVD price (95$).

By the way here is the direct price history at OKW (2042) up to 2006 as far as I can tell:

1991: $51
1992: $56 (+10%)
1993: $58 (+4%)
1994: $62 (+7%)
1995: $63 (+2%)
1996: $63
1997: $63
1998: $63
1999: $65 (+3%)
2000: $67 (+3%)
2001: $75 (+12%)
2002: $84 (+12%)
2003: $89 (+5%)
2004: $89 (+3%)
2005: $92 (+3%)
2006: $95 (+3%)

DVD started selling extended OKW contracts after that.

 

[lovin'fl]

I bought 200 OKW points in 2006 and paid $76/point (closed in June 2006). Recently, in another thread, someone cut and pasted the ROFR thread from 2006-2007 and most OKW were going for around what we paid. I'll see if I can find that info.

Here it is, 2006 into 2007-


PASSED - OKW:
JudyTL -------------- 296 OKW (Feb) $75, 193 '06 & 296 '07 pts, buyer pays closing and MF (sub 1/19 pass 2/01) member
Copperline ----------- 164 OKW (Oct) $75, 164 05 banked pts, all 06 and 07 pts coming (sub 1/31) member
okw30 --------------- 150 OKW (Feb) $76, approx. 60 07 pts & all 08 pts, ??? pays closing and MF, (sub 3/10, pass 3/19) member
raff626 -------------- 50 OKW (Sep) $85, all 07 pts, buyer pays closing & MF (sub 3/15, pass 3/23) non-member
squidmo -------------- 30 OKW (Oct) $87, all 07 pts, buyer pays closing & 07 MF (sub 3/16, pass 3/26) non-member
pjshaff (seller)-------- 50 OKW (Oct) $85, 34 '07 pts, Buyer pays closing and MF on 34 07 pts (sub 2/01?, pass 3/6) assumed non-member
Mic ------------------- 30 OKW (Oct) $87, 18 banked 06 & all 07 and 08 pts, buyer pays closing and 07 MF (sub 3/27, pass 4/13) member
Family5LovesDisney -- 230 OKW (Oct) $75, 40 banked pts & 177 07 pts, buyer pays closing (sub 4/10, pass 4/20) non-member
Stacyj2 -------------- 150 OKW (Dec) $77, 143 2006 pts., all 2007 and 2008. Buyer pays closing and 2007 MF (sub 4/13, pass 4/20) non-member
WEHAVEM ------------- 60 OKW (Feb) $88, 52 "06" banked pts, all 07 pts, buyer pays closing and '07 MF (Sub 4/18, pass 4/20) non-member
MIDisneymomof3 ------ 230 OKW (Mar) $75.50, 8 banked 06 pts, all '07 available (sub ?/??, passed 5/2) -non-member
UncleKyle ------------- 210 OKW (Oct) $73.50, 166 '06, 210 coming 10/07 (sub 5/5, passed 6/6)
Disney_Kim------------ 26 OKW (Aug) $85, 26 banked '06 pts, 26 '07 pts, seller pays closing (passed 6/6)
texa------------------ 40 OKW (Aug) $85, buyer pays closing, buyer pays '07 mf - non-member (passed 6/5)
midnte0708 ----------- 220 OKW (Sep) $77, 220 banked '06 pts, all '07 pts, buyer pays closing, buyer pays 1/2 '07 MF (passed 6/8)
disneymayz------------ 70 OKW (Feb) $80, 5 '07 pts, all '08 pts, buyer pays closing (passed 6/12)
Disneyaunt4----------- 230 OKW (Mar) $77, 115 banked '06 pts, 166 '07 pts, all '08 pts, buyer pays closing ($525), buyer pays $730.4 mf for '07 (sub 5/31, passed 6/14) - non-member
erikaluvsdisney--------- 210 OKW (???) $77 (sub 6/28, passed 7/10)
priley88---------------- 60 OKW (Apr) $78, all '07 pts, buyer pays closing and '07 mf (sub 6/23, passed 7/10) - Member
mouse4me------------- 130 OKW (Apr) $75 (passed 7/10) - Non-member
mommylo-------------- 150 OKW (Aug) $75, no '07 pts, all '08 pts (passed 7/25)
V10Torque------------- 40 OKW (Apr) $85, 26 banked '06 pts, all '07 pts (passed 7/25) - Non-member
Paddyshack------------ 240 OKW (Aug) $72, 116 07 pts, all 08 pts, (Sub 7/17, passed 7/26)
kburleski--------------- 310 OKW (Apr) $76, 58 banked '06 pts, all '07 pts (passed 7/27)
bababear_50------------ 39 OKW (Aug) $85, 18 banked '06 pts, all 07 pts, seller pays closing (passed 7/30)
MickeezGirl-------------- 210 OKW (???) $76
flechette--------------- 145 OKW (Feb) $80 all '07 & '08 pts (sub 7/30, passed 8/7)
lar42------------------- 210 OKW (Aug) $77, 210 banked '06 pts, all '07 pts (sub 8/10, passed 8/22)
chiroguydc------------- 230 OKW (Oct) $74, 122 '07 pts, all '08 pts, buyer
Stevegriswold----------- 60 OKW (Aug) $75 all '07 pts, seller pays closing (passed 9/1/08) - member
Michael623------------- 190 OKW (Jun) $73, no '07 pts, 190 '08 pts, Buyer pays closing costs. (Sub 9/10, passed 9/20)
Dustball---------------- 220 OKW (Dec) $72, 96 banked '06 pts, all '07 pts, buyer pays closing (passed 9/21)
dizhoni--------------- 100 OKW (Dec) $78, all '07 & '08 pts, buyer pays closing, seller pays '07 mf (sub approx 9/18, passed 9/28) - Member
kapeman------------- 105 OKW (Sep) $74, 79 '07 pts, all '08 pts, buyer pays closing, (sub 10/1, passed 10/8) non-member
Meriweather---------- 150 OKW (Apr) $75 (sub 10/10, passed 10/18)
wdwfan0123---------- 190 OKW (Jun) $74, 156 '08 pts, all '09 pts - Non-member (passed 11/1)5
5forDiz--------------- 50 OKW (Sep) $82, all '07 pts, all '08 pts, buyer pays closing, buyer pays '08 mf (sub 12/19, passed 12/26)
nunzia---------------- 25 OKW (???) $78, (sub 11/5, passed 11/14)
Escape Artist---------- 80 OKW (Dec) $80, all '08 pts, buyer split '08 MF (sub 1/24/08, passed 2/1/08)

 

[okw2012]

You may need to see if one of the resale brokers can assist with real data. Otherwise, even with the ROFR thread, you are using anecdotal information based on what a pretty small subset of purchasers have reported on the internet.

We purchased our first OKW resale back in 1998 and paid $53 and another later the same year at $50 - the first of those was an offer below asking price, the second was at asking price and both were before there was any real internet influence regarding "How to buy resale".

There are a lot of factors to consider, IMO - especially as the time gets closer to the unextended expiration date and depending on DVC's use of ROFR (or not).

Good luck with your project!

Thanks,
I agree that sample size is small. My thinking is that prices paid on DIS might be closer to market value as people on this board might have a bit more knowledge about DVC than the average buyer. Also the median prices I have found from 2006 onwards appear fairly consistent from year to year which gives me some hope.

 

[okw2012]

Thanks to WebmasterDoc and lovin'fl, a first update. I will soon post a first trend analysis taking into account years left to the contract and inflation.

DVD price history:

1991: $51
1992: $56 (+10%)
1993: $58 (+4%)
1994: $62 (+7%)
1995: $63 (+2%)
1996: $63
1997: $63
1998: $63
1999: $65 (+3%)
2000: $67 (+3%)
2001: $75 (+12%)
2002: $84 (+12%)
2003: $89 (+5%)
2004: $89 (+3%)
2005: $92 (+3%)
2006: $95 (+3%)

Resale price history (note to myself: should report sample size for each year):

1998: $52 (based on 2 contracts)

2006: $77 (-16%)
2007: $78 (+1%)
2008: $74 (-5%)
2009: $70 (-6%)
2010: $63 (-10%)
2011: $52 (-17%)
2012: $55 (+6%)
2013: $57 (+4% so far this year)

 

[okw2012]

Hello again,

Based on the information I have been able to obtain up to now, I have estimated the resale price from 1991, assuming an average 18% discount when buying resale from 1992 until 2005. This estimate is based on a few transactions only over that period, so there is certainly quite a bit of uncertainty and year-to-year variation.

From that resale price, I derive a price per year by simply dividing by the number of years left in the contract. I then adjust this price per year for inflation, assuming 3% average inflation, thus bringing the price per year back to 1991 $$. As you can see the price per year once adjusted for inflation has barely changed over the years, staying within 10% of 1$, except from 2002-2009.

Year - estimated resale price - price per year left in the contract - same but in $ of 1991 assuming 3% inflation

1991: $51 1.0 1.00
1992: $46 0.9 0.89
1993: $48 1.0 0.91
1994: $51 1.1 0.97
1995: $52 1.1 0.98
1996: $52 1.1 0.97
1997: $52 1.1 0.96
1998: $52 1.2 0.95
1999: $53 1.2 0.98
2000: $55 1.3 1
2001: $61 1.5 1.1
2002: $69 1.7 1.2
2003: $73 1.9 1.3
2004: $73 1.9 1.3
2005: $75 2.0 1.3
2006: $77 2.1 1.4
2007: $78 2.2 1.4
2008: $74 2.2 1.3
2009: $70 2.1 1.2
2010: $63 2.0 1.1
2011: $52 1.7 0.93
2012: $55 1.8 0.99
2013: $57 2.0 1

This period corresponds approximately to the years of the US real-estate bubble, so I decided to compare my data with the US housing price index. As you can see from this figure, the two datasets correlate very well (rho=0.93, rho=0.87 after detrending for 3% inflation).

Comparison of OKW 2042 resale price with US housing price index

The US bubble was in fact stronger than any OKW bubble, which would mean that the market for this luxury commodity was more robust than the overall market. I guess this is good news.

If we now assume that the OKW resale price per year stays constant at 1$ of 1991 for the next 30 years, and assuming also 3% inflation, price per year would reach approximately $2.7 in 2023 and $3.6 in 2033, for a resale value of $54 in 2023 and $36 in 2033. So I predict that resale price should hold for another 10 years slightly above current level, before starting to plummet. Not that I expect this forecast to be incredibly accurate, given that many factors are not taken into account and that my sample size is very small, as highlighted by WebmasterDoc. Anyway, I guess we'll only know ten years from now!

 

[lovin'fl]

Very interesting and good news. 10 years from now DH and I will be 50 and our kids will be 26, 24 and 24. I figure we will sell before that 10 year period ends or we will hold on to the bitter end (20 years from now I hope we will have grandkids to take to WDW).

 

[RobDoc]

From the information in the DVC Resource Center, here are the direct OKW prices from 1991 - 2006:

1991 - Pre-sales - $48, October opening - $51
7/1992 - $54.50
11/1992 - $56
7/1993 - $57.50
4/1994 - $59
6/1994 - $60.50
11/1994 - $61.50
7/1995 - $62.75
1/1996 - $65
Fall, 1998 - OKW sells out but later reopens sales for Buildings 62-64
10/1999 - OKW sells out again after 62-64 opening
5/2000 - $67
1/2001 - $72
6/2001 - $75
6/2002 - $80
12/2002 - $84
8/2003 - $89
6/2005 - $92
1/2006 - $95

 

[okw2012]

From the information in the DVC Resource Center, here are the direct OKW prices from 1991 - 2006:

1991 - Pre-sales - $48, October opening - $51
7/1992 - $54.50
11/1992 - $56
7/1993 - $57.50
4/1994 - $59
6/1994 - $60.50
11/1994 - $61.50
7/1995 - $62.75
1/1996 - $65
Fall, 1998 - OKW sells out but later reopens sales for Buildings 62-64
10/1999 - OKW sells out again after 62-64 opening
5/2000 - $67
1/2001 - $72
6/2001 - $75
6/2002 - $80
12/2002 - $84
8/2003 - $89
6/2005 - $92
1/2006 - $95

Thanks. That's almost what I had, given that I only kept the end-of-year price. I had slightly lower prices for 1996-1999 (by 2$), but given the uncertainty on the resale price (which I set at 82% of direct price based on a few known transactions before 2006), this is well within the margin of error of my data. I think I will have a look at information on other boards in order to get more accurate figures.

 

[DisDad07]

I want to thank you guys for your effort in putting this overview together. I bought resale in 2011 for $52 and I will hold on to the very end, and use my points untill they take them away from me. I am glad to see the prices on the rise. It makes me feel like people still want to own there. I hope some day they will let us extend our ownership to 2057.

 

[RobDoc]

I want to thank you guys for your effort in putting this overview together. I bought resale in 2011 for $52 and I will hold on to the very end, and use my points untill they take them away from me. I am glad to see the prices on the rise. It makes me feel like people still want to own there. I hope some day they will let us extend our ownership to 2057.

If you purchased a contract for OKW, you can extend your ownership until 1/31/2057. Just contact Member Administration and they will assist with the extension. The cost at this time is $25 per point for something that cannot be used until 2/1/2042.

Since that was the price discussed and voted on back in September, 2007 I think it will stand unless the BOD votes to increase the price at some time in the future. If you are truly interested in the extension, it might be worthwhile at least looking into it at this time. I'll be surprised if they do not vote an increase sometime between now and 2042.

Stay tuned!

 

[okw2012]

If you purchased a contract for OKW, you can extend your ownership until 1/31/2057. Just contact Member Administration and they will assist with the extension. The cost at this time is $25 per point for something that cannot be used until 2/1/2042.

Since that was the price discussed and voted on back in September, 2007 I think it will stand unless the BOD votes to increase the price at some time in the future. If you are truly interested in the extension, it might be worthwhile at least looking into it at this time. I'll be surprised if they do not vote an increase sometime between now and 2042.

Stay tuned!

Using the same hypothesis of 3% inflation, 25$ per point today is worth around 60$ 30 years from now. This will buy you 15 years of point, so that comes up to 4$ per point.

Today's price of 2$ per point will increase to close to 5$ per point assuming again 3% inflation, so it seems to be a good deal to buy at today's price, assuming you have the money. I am here assuming no borrowing costs of course, and the conclusion holds independently of the inflation rate.

So why does DVD offers this? Because I neglected the opportunity loss. Indeed I think that you can make more than 3% per year by investing the 25$ instead of buying OKW points. If you can make as little as 4% on your investment (only 1% more than inflation), it is a better idea not to buy the extension.