Odds of free dining in Q4 (Oct.-Dec.) 2012

[Masonmj84]

I know the guy that runs the Mousemisers site think's it's less than 50/50 (economy is coming out of recession, new Fantasyland expansion, and Disney generally trying to wein people off FD).

What would you put the odds at?

 

[mousiemom]

you just never know, for the past 10 years we have booked with some kind of discount but our favorite is the free dining. we've decided if they don't announce any fd for end of nov, we will be going in sept with the fd. we will just wear less clothes then!!

 

[Hitchhiking Ghost]

I'm torn. If there isn't free dining then I hope there is at least a good room discount available, or and AP discount that I'd buy into.

My oldest DD turns 10 before we'd go, so it makes me that she goes from $15 a day on the DDP to $52. For our family of 5 it would be nearly $1700 to go oop on the DDP for a 9 night stay. So a part of me is certainly hoping for free dining. Then again, despite what the DW says, I think we can eat for less than $1700 for 9 days. I think she just doesn't want me to gripe every time we walk into CS or TS and I look at the prices.

I still think there could be discounts. I looked at what we did back in 2010 and right now airfare for us is probably $150 more p/p now then in it was in 2010. So while the economy is showing some signs of rebounding, it still takes time for it to loosen up peoples pocket books.

Reading these boards, and others, I wonder how many Nov/Dec cancellations Disney would get if free DDP isn't announced at some point. Unfortunately we'll probably have to wait until August to find out.

 

[Missyrose]

I think the problem you will run into October-December this year is that is when the Fantasyland Expansion is slated to open. So Disney may be figuring that the new attractions will be shiny enough that people will come regardless of discounts.

 

[mommyof3princess27]

I know part of the new fantasyland is opening so maybe we still have a change for Oct-Dec (FD) ~ maybe Disney is gonna just finish up with discounts this year

 

[nooneshome]

The economy is still in the tank, gas prices are going up and Disney is just plain addicted to discounts. There is a great chance there will be discounts just an in years past.

 

[mom2rtk]

The economy is still in the tank, gas prices are going up and Disney is just plain addicted to discounts. There is a great chance there will be discounts just an in years past.

...but.....but.....but.... those nice people on TV told me it was all better........

 

[fivebyfive]

I think the key is that October - December is actually Q1 for Disney, not Q4.

They are far more likely to offer FD (or any similar steep promo) during their last quarter, oppose to the first quarter of a brand new fiscal year.

 

[nooneshome]

...but.....but.....but.... those nice people on TV told me it was all better........

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blonde who comes on at five
She can tell you 'bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye
It's interesting when people die- Give us dirty laundry

God Bless the Mess we call our Fourth Estate!!!!

 

[saskdw]

My response to this is the same as it was last year at this time when we had these same threads. For me it isn't about getting as discount or something for free. The fact is that Disney resorts are priced WELL above the market. Their "rack rate" is too much. If they can fill their resorts at rack rate than I guess they will prove me wrong, but I don't think they can. Our family likes and make good use of the FD promo. FD or discounts of 30%-40% brings Disney to what I consider fair market value. I don't consider this a smokin deal, it just makes it fair price. We have spent 3 of the last 4 Christmas at DW on FD. Last we were there from Dec 14th-28th, which ment we checked in in time to get FD for the whole trip. Fair deal for us and fair for Disney, they got us there a week before the crowds and we spent a ton of money in the 15 days we were there, most of it on Disney property. So for us it's really simply, give us a fair deal this Christmas and we will come again (and this year bringing another family with us), try to make us pay rack rate which is overpriced and not fair, we will go else where. For us it's not about what we can afford, it's about not being ripped off and being treated fairly.

 

[dclfun]

I don't think the economy is much better or even improving and if gas prices don't come down then finding a way to get to WDW is going to be a challenge for many families. It's not Disney that's addicted to discounts, it's the Guests who are used to them and who would want to pay Disney's rack rate? Not me.

I just wish it were something other than FD but that's the dangling carrot that most people jump at. IMO FD has been the demise of fair food prices and meal options at WDW. You used to be able to get a good meal at a decent price and interesting food at that. Now with so many dining for "free" the food is lesser quality and more homogenous. Dining OOP at the TS restaurants is way too costly now for what you get, esp. when the kids are 10 and up. My adult kids were even griping about CS prices during our recent visit and they have young kids who can easily split meals or eat from their parents plates!

I do feel that with the Fantasyland expansion that more people will want to be the first to experience all of it and also the holiday decorations and as such, lesser discounts may be offered. What we DO know though is that there has been FD and a % discount for quite a few years in the past now as a precedent for those dates.

 

[fivebyfive]

The fact is that Disney resorts are priced WELL above the market. Their "rack rate" is too much.

I'm curious what you are basing your 'fact' on? Priced well above which market exactly? The closest comparison I know of is Great Wolf Lodge, is that what you are comparing WDW's rates to in your post?

 

[weedles]

Not sure what market saskdw was comparing to but remember while Great Wolf rack rates are high and comparable to wdw deluxes your (up to 6) park passes are included in the room rate. Love it there as well, have been 5 times but will tell you have never ever paid GWL "rack" usually ending up at about $200 a night.

 

[fivebyfive]

Great Wolf Lodge is fun and all, but it's no WDW. At least not for me anyhow.

I think for WDW, its business 101. If they are filling their rooms, there is no need to discount them.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

My response to this is the same as it was last year at this time when we had these same threads. For me it isn't about getting as discount or something for free. The fact is that Disney resorts are priced WELL above the market. Their "rack rate" is too much. If they can fill their resorts at rack rate than I guess they will prove me wrong, but I don't think they can. Our family likes and make good use of the FD promo. FD or discounts of 30%-40% brings Disney to what I consider fair market value. I don't consider this a smokin deal, it just makes it fair price. We have spent 3 of the last 4 Christmas at DW on FD. Last we were there from Dec 14th-28th, which ment we checked in in time to get FD for the whole trip. Fair deal for us and fair for Disney, they got us there a week before the crowds and we spent a ton of money in the 15 days we were there, most of it on Disney property. So for us it's really simply, give us a fair deal this Christmas and we will come again (and this year bringing another family with us), try to make us pay rack rate which is overpriced and not fair, we will go else where. For us it's not about what we can afford, it's about not being ripped off and being treated fairly.

I completely agree with this. As for what market to compare to, I would say other area hotels that offer shuttle service to the parks. There seem to be many. While you lose extra magic hours, you may gain something else....like a larger room, a hotel room instead of a motel room, or free breakfast. I imagine many 1st timers just go to a travel website and look for the best value for their $. That's what we did. That's what Disney has to compete with.

We do prefer to stay onsite, but will only do so if the price is right (for us). For several years now, it has been. We only stayed onsite the first time, because we got Pop Century for $55/night.

As for will they offer discounts, I think they will. Fantasyland expansion is not likely to make a difference in filling their hotel rooms. There were a bunch of threads / comments on here about how Disney would not need to offer discounts for AoA, yet they already have. I for one, have received about 10 pins in the last year. We have almost always gone with a general public or Disney Visa offer though. Something is likely to come up.

 

[denman007]

I know the guy that runs the Mousemisers site think's it's less than 50/50 (economy is coming out of recession, new Fantasyland expansion, and Disney generally trying to wein people off FD).

What would you put the odds at?

I think the answer you are looking for is 84%.

 

[nooneshome]

I think the answer you are looking for is 84%.

I think the answer they are looking for is 100%. And they are right!!

WDW is trying to cut back on specials but all they have done is alter them a little. The economy is not all that great and gas prices are way to high.

 

[Tinkerbellah]

The "good life" is not cheap. But I wish it was.

 

[mom2taylorandemily]

I hate to tell all these Nice TV Econmists, but the Economic stituation is NOT getting better. Gas prices are still up, and that trickles down to everything (groceries, food prices in restaurants, clothing, etc.). As long as I have less money at the end of the month with no other changes happening other than gas prices, its NOT better!!! I have no idea what they are basing all this information on, the rich being able to trade more on the NYSE?! Well, hello the rest of us are losing $$$$!!!!

That being said, if the rooms are filling, which clearly they aren't that is why Disney opened FD to the all new AofA not even 3 weeks ago. So, those rooms aren't filling. I wonder how many cancellations they will have for the Dec. time frame if FD isn't offered at the 45 day mark in Oct.? I currently have a trip scheduled for Dec. for DDs Sweet 16, and we will probably still go even if FD isnt' offered, we will just go for a shorter amount of time. As long as rooms are open and not filling like they'd like them to, discounts will happen. An empty room makes no $$; where as a discounted room makes something and then it trickles down to Mousekeeping getting tipped, and the restaurants selling food and the stores selling souvineers. I'm just saying...

So will there be a FD discount or some other kind, well I certainly hope so, and if history is a good predictor, I'd say it is likely of some kind. Better than a 50% chance.