Need DVC waitlisting advice

[bdrex28]

Ok, so I am looking for some community advice.

We have a deluxe studio booked the end of January at BWV but would like to waitlist a 1 BR somewhere.

the reasoning is we are now bringing a friend of our daughters and just don't feel like sharing a studio and they can use the bed in the living room and we'll take the bedroom.

Here's where I'm seeking advice.

Which 1 BR to waitlist? I understand it's only 60 days roughly to the reservation and odds are high we wont get anything. But that being said, what would be the "most likely" Waitlist opening for a 1 BR?

I was thinking SSR, OKW, Kidani or perhaps BLT but I figure that the rehabbing might reduce the 1 BR allotment at BLT.

If you had to choose somewhere, which would you "guess" would be most likely? I would love BWV but I just highly doubt one is going to open for 4 nights.

 

[erionm]

SSR Standard location has the largest number of 1-bedrooms in a single booking category at 264.
OKW (not near HH) would have the 2nd most at 192.
SSR Preferred location will have the 3rd most at 168.

AKV Savanna View & BLT Lake view are just a little over 100 each.

 

[bdrex28]

SSR Standard location has the largest number of 1-bedrooms in a single booking category at 264.
OKW (not near HH) would have the 2nd most at 192.
SSR Preferred location will have the 3rd most at 168.

AKV Savanna View & BLT Lake view are just a little over 100 each.

that's kind of what I was seeing on inventory.

I've never stayed at OKW but it seems very similar to SSR.

We own at SSR but generally use them as SAP and have pretty much been booking BWV as it's our favorite.

I would probably choose BLT all things being equal but I suspect that lake view of 100 inventory will be much less and it would seem the best likelihood to be OKW and SSR.

Thank you for confirming my thoughts and process.

 

[muppets3d]

Waitlist what you want to stay at, and hope that it comes through. In the meantime, check the site and see if any cancellations come up.

Trying to play the odds is folly IMO. There is no formula, it's all in how many people have that room waitlisted vs how many cancellations there are.

 

[skier_pete]

Waitlist what you want to stay at, and hope that it comes through. In the meantime, check the site and see if any cancellations come up.

Trying to play the odds is folly IMO. There is no formula, it's all in how many people have that room waitlisted vs how many cancellations there are.

Disagree. The OP has to consider what they really want. If the importance is to get a 1-bedroom regardless of resort, then the best options would be as listed above. OKW and SSR. Because they have the most rooms and are also the least desirable resorts, they are the most likely to have someone set a cancellation. If you really have your heart set on BWV and you don't really care if the waitlist comes through - then put in a BWV 1-bedroom Lake/Garden view. @muppets3d is right in that you just never know, the BWV one could come through and the other may not, but if getting the 1-bedroom is the more important consideration, then it's best to play the odds in your favor.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I've never stayed at OKW but it seems very similar to SSR.

I agree you're most likely to have a waitlist come through for OKW or SSR. The rooms at OKW are quite nice. It's been a home resort for us since the 90s. The rooms are among the largest DVC rooms on property, large balconies, and nice views. Both resorts offer bus transportation to the parks. SSR is walkable to DS, while OKW has a nice relaxing boat you can take to DS. I would not hesitate to recommend a 1BR at OKW, should it come through. One note, since you've not stayed there. Most of the buildings at OKW are older and do not have elevators. It's possible you might need to do stairs to the third floor - the top floor in the OKW buildings. Sometimes folks are surprised to find no elevator.....

Now, with all that being said, our favorite 1BR would be at AKL Kidani - which also could be a waitlist option. The 1BR at Kidani has 2 bathrooms - one for the master and one for the living room. That might be a plus in your situation.

 

[muppets3d]

Disagree. The OP has to consider what they really want. If the importance is to get a 1-bedroom regardless of resort, then the best options would be as listed above. OKW and SSR. Because they have the most rooms and are also the least desirable resorts, they are the most likely to have someone set a cancellation. If you really have your heart set on BWV and you don't really care if the waitlist comes through - then put in a BWV 1-bedroom Lake/Garden view. @muppets3d is right in that you just never know, the BWV one could come through and the other may not, but if getting the 1-bedroom is the more important consideration, then it's best to play the odds in your favor.

the point is there are no odds. It’s all to do with who cancels and where you are in the list when that happens. Just because SSR has a bunch of rooms doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get a waitlist. In fact it’s probably just as likely it won’t go through because everyone else thinks SSR is their best shot so your waitlist is 2 pages down.

 

[Sandisw]

the point is there are no odds. It’s all to do with who cancels and where you are in the list when that happens. Just because SSR has a bunch of rooms doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get a waitlist. In fact it’s probably just as likely it won’t go through because everyone else thinks SSR is their best shot so your waitlist is 2 pages down.

The thing with the waitlist, though, is that you can be on page 2 of the waitlist because of when you set it up, but if no one that is ahead of you has the exact same waitlist as you, and those are the exact dates that open, you can jump ahead of them.

So, if someone is looking for one night at a resort, they will automatically move up ahead of anyone whose dates are not an exact match for what opens up....that is why having the larger resorts as waitlists give you better odds because there are more rooms there for movement....and fewer people tend to waitlist those resorts....

 

[bakerworld]

WL something and then keeping looking would be my advice. In '22 we ended up with holding points and dedicated (at least weekly) checking I managed to book a July 4 week vacation at SSR. Personally we prefer SSR over OKW. AK is our home but we prefer SSR.

 

[tofubeast]

I think your best bet is SSR -standard. Waitlist, but also stalk the site frequently.

 

[jbreen2010]

If you are open to any location, I would suggest wait listing whatever resort has the most inventory of the type of room that you are looking for. For example, if one of the animal kingdoms or SSR has the most 1BRs, just wait list there. The other thing i'll say is to watch the site frequently - sometimes availability just changes - especially as you approach a 30-day window where people's points would go into holding if they cancel after that date. It's tough if you can only waitlist one or two possibilities as there are certainly plenty of resorts that have 1br.

 

[crisi]

the point is there are no odds. It’s all to do with who cancels and where you are in the list when that happens. Just because SSR has a bunch of rooms doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get a waitlist. In fact it’s probably just as likely it won’t go through because everyone else thinks SSR is their best shot so your waitlist is 2 pages down.

That is odds. Its statistics. If there are 10 rooms at Resort A and 100 rooms at Resort B and the statistical short term cancellation rate is 3% (all made up numbers for the sake of illustrating the statistics), it is more likely for a room to open up at Resort B than Resort A. It is not the case that 3 rooms will open up at resort B and none at resort A, that isn't how probability works - three COULD open up at resort A and none at Resort B - but that wouldn't be probable. But if you are playing the odds, waitlist resort B. In this case your best odds are to waitlist the two resorts with the most one bedrooms, if what you really value is the one bedroom. Although since you can do two waitlists, I'd waitlist BWV and then SSR - because sometimes you get lucky and the OP wants BWV - that's also statistics.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

See, I think maybe GF might come through, only because it’s so point heavy and not as desirable. I think I would do BW first since you like it best and then SS/OKW/AKK as likely backups.

 

[bdrex28]

Thank you for all the advice.

Last week I ended up getting the wait list filled for OKW. It was odd, as I was chatting on member services about something else, I don't even really recall what. They asked if there was anything else they could do and I said "Well, maybe you could sprinkle pixie dust and see if I can get my wait list filled for either BWV or OKW." They then responded one minute let me check what we have. Then they come back and say "Oh your wait list just filled for OKW".......crazy and kind of odd, no?

Anyway, so I moved my GP View BWV studio over to a 1 BR at OKW in a near HH room.

Now I have waitlists in for G/P view at BWV 1 BR and at BRV.

I am stalking like crazy too and hoping that at 31 days something opens up.

Thank you for all the advice and thoughts!

 

[BaybeeYoda]

Ok, so I am looking for some community advice.

We have a deluxe studio booked the end of January at BWV but would like to waitlist a 1 BR somewhere.

the reasoning is we are now bringing a friend of our daughters and just don't feel like sharing a studio and they can use the bed in the living room and we'll take the bedroom.

Here's where I'm seeking advice.

Which 1 BR to waitlist? I understand it's only 60 days roughly to the reservation and odds are high we wont get anything. But that being said, what would be the "most likely" Waitlist opening for a 1 BR?

I was thinking SSR, OKW, Kidani or perhaps BLT but I figure that the rehabbing might reduce the 1 BR allotment at BLT.

If you had to choose somewhere, which would you "guess" would be most likely? I would love BWV but I just highly doubt one is going to open for 4 nights.

Waitlist one day at a time if you have extra points. Or two days at a time. Don't cancel your current ressies. Waitlist two days and two days. Maybe that helps?

And stalk the reservation site. Some ppl will cancel pre-31 days.

 

[bdrex28]

Waitlist one day at a time if you have extra points. Or two days at a time. Don't cancel your current ressies. Waitlist two days and two days. Maybe that helps?

And stalk the reservation site. Some ppl will cancel pre-31 days.

I am kind of stuck on booking , my Use Year is Feb. LOL

 

[BaybeeYoda]

I am kind of stuck on booking , my Use Year is Feb. LOL

oh that stinks. I try to use banked points so that I can play around with reservations on my current year points, but I also overbought (believe it or not) 7 years ago.
GOOD LUCK!

 

[bdrex28]

oh that stinks. I try to use banked points so that I can play around with reservations on my current year points, but I also overbought (believe it or not) 7 years ago.
GOOD LUCK!

I almost bought a contract direct before I bought my current resale. Had I purchased that direct, knowing what I know now, I would have very much over bought on points. I'm sure I"d find a way to use them though

 

[RoseGold]

Since you absolutely need a 1BR, I'd go SSR backup OKW, because one of the two will open when someone gets something better anywhere in the system. If I didn't care as much if it filled, I would go Kidani savanna, also a room that people would drop if they got something better.

I think your odds aren't bad. Waitlists like this often fill for me at 30 days in the 1BR category.

You might be surprised what you can get stalking at 30ish days.