Major DVC Change - Resale Market Only original 14 resort access

[mb168]

Oh yes they will. People on FB boards are already talking about buying direct instead of resale because they don't want to be blocked out of new resorts. People hate being told no.

But that's two different things. I said "I don't think it will hurt current owners any time soon" because there's barely anything that matters yet if they go to resell in the next few years. Folks that buy direct today are still impacted the same way if they go to sell in a few years because no new resort exists yet that matters. But when they go to sell, they are impacted the same as someone that owned either way before last week. Then Riviera will be the sole one for what, 3 years, and then there'll finally be a second new one that has a good location at River Country? By then 6 of the 14 resorts, almost half, will be at their 20 to go mark so I think the downhill run towards 2042 will start to devalue resale of those much sooner than not being able to stay in 1-2 resorts for a few resale buyers in the next few years.

 

[steves100]

I don't think it will hurt current owners any time soon. There isn't even a resort that exists yet that this applies to, and when Riviera is up, there'll only be one. So even if you intended to sell then, I don't see it as a big deal. No one is going to think "oh, I can stay at Poly, BLT, BCV, and all of these other great resorts near a park, but I can't stay at the one next to a moderate? I'm not buying this cheaper contract for that reason!"

Are you crazy, no one would think that? ONLY if they dont know anything about DVC.

 

[Novakm]

[Oh yes they will. People on FB boards are already talking about buying direct instead of resale because they don't want to be blocked out of new resorts. People hate being told no.[/QUOTE]

Those people should ask their guide where in the contract it says they won’t be told no in the future.

It won’t be in there, but no one will ask.

 

[DougEMG]

With these changes Disney has totally screwed up the entire DVC eco-system. Everyone is going to lose, including Disney.

All owners are going to be effected in two way:

(1) The pool of available resorts/points they can trade into is going to be reduced as the number of resale owners who can't trade out increase. If a resale owner can't trade out, then those points aren't going to be available to be traded into. Trade at an resort has to balance between what is allowed out and what can come in. So less flexibility for everyone, and flexibility is what you need/want in a point system.

(2) Since resale owner are restricted where they can book, they are going to have to start booking as early as possible, definitely before the 7 month window opens, or they risk not getting anything. This will force everyone else to start booking earlier, creating a nasty feedback loop. You think walking is bad now, just wait. People think having to settle for SSR for last minute trips suck, well wait till that option is taken away and you can't book anything.

Any owner that now buys direct at a new DVC resort is probably looking at a 50% haircut on the value of their purchase as soon as they walk out of the door. The only way it makes sense to buy resale at the new resorts is if you can ALWAYS book 11 months in advance, otherwise you have a serious risk of losing your points. Given that the average owner only hold for 8-10 years, there are going to be a lot of unhappy Riviera owners when they find out how little their points are worth on the resale market.

Personally I wouldn't buy DVC now, I just don't trust them any more. With all these changes they are turning into every other timeshare company out their. Who knows what they will do in the next 20-50 years to their customers.

 

[DisFanDad]

With these changes Disney has totally screwed up the entire DVC eco-system. Everyone is going to lose, including Disney.

All owners are going to be effected in two way:

(1) The pool of available resorts/points they can trade into is going to be reduced as the number of resale owners who can't trade out increase. If a resale owner can't trade out, then those points aren't going to be available to be traded into. Trade at an resort has to balance between what is allowed out and what can come in. So less flexibility for everyone, and flexibility is what you need/want in a point system.

(2) Since resale owner are restricted where they can book, they are going to have to start booking as early as possible, definitely before the 7 month window opens, or they risk not getting anything. This will force everyone else to start booking earlier, creating a nasty feedback loop. You think walking is bad now, just wait. People think having to settle for SSR for last minute trips suck, well wait till that option is taken away and you can't book anything.

Any owner that now buys direct at a new DVC resort is probably looking at a 50% haircut on the value of their purchase as soon as they walk out of the door. The only way it makes sense to buy resale at the new resorts is if you can ALWAYS book 11 months in advance, otherwise you have a serious risk of losing your points. Given that the average owner only hold for 8-10 years, there are going to be a lot of unhappy Riviera owners when they find out how little their points are worth on the resale market.

Personally I wouldn't buy DVC now, I just don't trust them any more. With all these changes they are turning into every other timeshare company out their. Who knows what they will do in the next 20-50 years to their customers.

Nailed it.

Will also be interesting to see what happens to the resale value elsewhere, so far its been trending up despite the increased limitations on resale owners. If availability becomes more of an issue as you noted, value decreases. As well, even if its not appealing to everyone, if Riviera is on the resale market for 50% of its direct value (and that wouldn't surprise me at all), this might create a drag on other prices as well (though I think Disney is just going to ROFR all those contracts, making resale practically useless at Riviera.).

 

[hakepb]

FYI, not this resale topic, but the 2020 points chart changes:

as mentioned in the DVC forums,
https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...20-reallocation.3726101/page-62#post-60186756

Dear Ryan,



Thank you for reaching out to our team.



Disney Vacation Club Management has revised the 2020 Vacation Points Charts originally posted on the Member website on Dec. 19, 2018.



As we have stated, the reallocation of vacation point values is outlined in the Membership Agreement and is an important part of meeting Members’ needs and expectations.



The originally posted 2020 Vacation Points Charts were consistent with the Membership Agreement. However, Disney Vacation Club Management listened to our Members’ feedback and decided to more closely align them with the 2019 Vacation Points Charts, with some adjustments for the 2020 calendar.



This will give Disney Vacation Club Management time to further analyze demand and usage patterns, along with Member feedback, and adjust Vacation Points Charts for 2021 and beyond, as appropriate.



Thank you,

Yvonne



Yvonne Chang

Director, Club Management & Regulatory Affairs

Would you join a lawsuit against DVC to stop/revert the 2020 reallocation?
Disney blinked and changed the 2020 charts back to the 2019 levels.

 

[Minniesgal]

This will hurt Riviera direct buyers more than anyone else

Having seen the rooms at Riviera don’t think this is a great loss myself

 

[TheGecko]

With these changes Disney has totally screwed up the entire DVC eco-system.

......Personally I wouldn't buy DVC now, I just don't trust them any more. With all these changes they are turning into every other timeshare company out their. Who knows what they will do in the next 20-50 years to their customers.

Just sold my AKV contract (to Disney they grabbed it at ROFR) and the changes were announced while I was waiting which cemented my decision. At the end of the day I made a profit, but those days are probably over when buying new. I just do not like the trends. Annual dues are going up a rate much greater than inflation, the perks are next to non-existent/non-usuable unless you luck out to be staying there in a week something is scheduled, and they have also been jacking up ticket prices much faster than inflation.

Don't get me wrong, we will still visit Disney, but I will take advantage of pricing discounts or free dining not available to DVC. I will also have more flexibility in my reservations which seems to be gone from the DVC system.

 

[MommaBerd]

Thanks for posting the good news here @hakepb !!!

 

[theSurlyMermaid]

Just sold my AKV contract (to Disney they grabbed it at ROFR) and the changes were announced while I was waiting which cemented my decision. At the end of the day I made a profit, but those days are probably over when buying new. I just do not like the trends. Annual dues are going up a rate much greater than inflation, the perks are next to non-existent/non-usuable unless you luck out to be staying there in a week something is scheduled, and they have also been jacking up ticket prices much faster than inflation.

Don't get me wrong, we will still visit Disney, but I will take advantage of pricing discounts or free dining not available to DVC. I will also have more flexibility in my reservations which seems to be gone from the DVC system.

Nice one! We sold as well....still in the ROFR process. We sold for much more per point more than we bought, so we consider ourselves very fortunate. Like you, we were growing disillusioned. I had actually rented my points out for the last several years to fund other vacations (and our dues) and we ended up having some truly amazing vacations. No Disney in sight. The entire Disney vacation experience is way overpriced. The parks are always crowded and what you get for the money lessens every year it seems. Our last DVC vacation which was last December was terrible and one of the first times ever I just wanted to go home. Add onto this the increasing dues, constant new restrictions, and coming attractions I don’t really care about (not a huge Star Wars person), the choice to sell was easy and a relief.

 

[YesterDark]

Just sold my AKV contract (to Disney they grabbed it at ROFR) and the changes were announced while I was waiting which cemented my decision. At the end of the day I made a profit, but those days are probably over when buying new. I just do not like the trends. Annual dues are going up a rate much greater than inflation, the perks are next to non-existent/non-usuable unless you luck out to be staying there in a week something is scheduled, and they have also been jacking up ticket prices much faster than inflation.

Don't get me wrong, we will still visit Disney, but I will take advantage of pricing discounts or free dining not available to DVC. I will also have more flexibility in my reservations which seems to be gone from the DVC system.

Over the last few years I've been considering DVC, but costs, flexibility and stories like this dissuade me to even think about it now. Even if $100,000 dropped in my lap today free to use, I'd still have my reservations.

 

[jade1]

Nice one! We sold as well....still in the ROFR process. We sold for much more per point more than we bought, so we consider ourselves very fortunate. Like you, we were growing disillusioned. I had actually rented my points out for the last several years to fund other vacations (and our dues) and we ended up having some truly amazing vacations. No Disney in sight. The entire Disney vacation experience is way overpriced. The parks are always crowded and what you get for the money lessens every year it seems. Our last DVC vacation which was last December was terrible and one of the first times ever I just wanted to go home. Add onto this the increasing dues, constant new restrictions, and coming attractions I don’t really care about (not a huge Star Wars person), the choice to sell was easy and a relief.

So awesome, its a great benefit IMO.

You probably stayed for the cost of dues if not less. Studios at Deluxe Resorts for under $100 a night.

We sold 2 that way, but then they dropped over the years so we picked up more.

Could come out great again but it's now just so cheap to get out of winter. BWV in 2 weeks.

But you are correct on renting, shudder to think what we could be making.

 

[aristocatz]

Apparently news is breaking that as of January 19th, if you purchase DVC on the resale market, you points will only be able to be used at the original 14 resorts, not into the two new resorts under development (or any yet to be announced). This is a MAJOR shake-up to the DVC world / market and a very interesting development ahead of these new resort developments.


https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...bhWbFHuxsy1qW4GriY1iIbl1VToEMDHItjmnd-KZGkU-A

What is the other DVC they are building, aside from the Riviera?

 

[KYMickey]

What is the other DVC they are building, aside from the Riviera?

The new one over by the camping area on the water, I believe last thing I heard it was going to be called reflections.224

 

[mentos]

Not a huge issue for me personally, I have AUL and VGC from resale, I own so I can book 11 months in advance for the home resort (and my travels to Florida are limited). If ever I need to resell VGC, local factors like limited supply would outweigh outside benefits of booking at a new resort. That, and given the current resale price (~$205/pt), you're better off renting them out vs. using them in FL.

That said, this gives me pause on any purchases going forward. I'd have to really think about it given the trends.

 

[jade1]

Well its been a year, and it appears (at least so far) resale values have gone up since the "limitation" announcement.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Well its been a year, and it appears (at least so far) resale values have gone up since the "limitation" announcement.

Well, not exactly;
Average resale price as of Dec '19
There's a chart on the link that shows monthly average prices. The price spiked for nearly all resorts but has since come back down. ROFR buybacks were nearly nil last month.

 

[jade1]

Well, not exactly;
Average resale price as of Dec '19
There's a chart on the link that shows monthly average prices. The price spiked for nearly all resorts but has since come back down. ROFR buybacks were nearly nil last month.

That is a great chart thanks.

So YoY all DVC Resorts on there actually went up, except AK,POLY and SSR.

Certainly not the drop many predicted.

Kinda was hoping a big drop to scoop some more up.

But knowing ours are still climbing after the rules change isn't bad either.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Certainly lots of variables in the last year. Maybe just me, but I didn't think prices on L14 would go down - I just wanted to get in before the restrictions. That spiked the price, as did Disney increasing the direct price. Disney has virtually stopped exercising ROFR so the price has come down now.As long as inventory and interest in RIV are high I don't see that changing.

 

[jade1]

Maybe just me, but I didn't think prices on L14 would go down

No many us would believe a drop when we saw it. Didn't happen.

I just wanted to get in before the restrictions. That spiked the price

Do you mean the Jan announcement spiked it?