Maintenance Fee Estimates

[EIU110]

Considering buying a resale contract and trying to estimate total cost throughout the deed. Is there a way to estimate maintenance fees over the coming years?

 

[Sandisw]

Most resorts average 3 to 6% increases a year. From what I have read over the year, those that decide to include this as part of the analysis....I did not because I figured MFs cost would be similar to rises in cash rates...use 4%

 

[John Purcell]

Great question!!!! I do think that Disney California and Aulani will have a true reduction, DVC in the SE USA was only closed for a couple months. I still think some resorts will see a small decrease, but the “mixed DVC/hotel resorts” whereby Disney had to open hotel amenities only to DVC members might see an increase. We will see(!)

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[EIU110]

Thanks everyone for the responses!

 

[Lorana]

Assuming I did my calculations correctly, this shows the annual dues per year at each resort, and then calculates the historical CAGR from opening, as well as the CAGR of the last 5 years to give an idea of estimating Dues increases:

HISTORICAL ANNUAL DVC DUES
Year	OKW	BWV	VB	VB(s)	HHI	BRV	BCV	SSR	AKV	BLT	VGC	ADV	ADV(s)	VGF	PVB	CCV	RIV
2020	7.84	7.37	10.13	8	9.1	7.78	7.06	6.77	7.67	6.58	6.6	8.33	6.26	6.56	6.79	7.45	8.3082
2019	7.23	7.17	9.48	7.48	8.56	7.32	6.94	6.4	7.44	6.4	6.27	7.86	5.91	6.39	6.76	7.42	8.3082
2018	6.72	6.55	8.53	6.71	7.72	6.93	6.44	5.86	6.76	5.92	5.88	7.53	5.66	6.13	6.2	7.26
2017	6.41	6.47	8.11	6.49	7.27	6.54	6.27	5.6	6.59	5.62	5.61	7.03	5.28	5.9	6.14	7.33
2016	6.01	6.18	8.08	6.35	6.82	6.22	6.13	5.44	6.42	5.28	5.37	6.79	5.1	5.71	6.09
2015	5.84	6.07	8.06	6.28	6.52	6.03	5.97	5.17	6.3	5.05	5.15	6.51	4.89	5.52	6.02
2014	5.54	6.01	7.75	6.06	6.28	5.93	5.79	4.91	5.97	4.78	4.94	6.44	4.84	5.41
2013	5.34	5.84	7.41	5.8	6.02	5.79	5.65	4.81	5.67	4.5	4.58	6.25	4.7	5.41
2012	5.2	5.62	7.12	5.57	5.93	5.61	5.5	4.73	5.44	4.22	4.33	5.96	4.48
2011	4.98	5.46	6.78	5.31	5.68	5.34	5.28	4.51	5.01	3.89	4.07	5.73	4.31
2010	4.87	5.36	6.61	5.18	5.57	5.2	5.15	4.46	4.95	3.78	3.94
2009	4.73	5.21	6.41	4.97	5.36	5.04	5	4.34	4.86	3.67	3.82
2008	4.56	5.04	6.04	4.71	5.16	4.87	4.8	4.21	4.71
2007	4.4	4.85	5.63	4.39	4.98	4.73	4.63	4.12	4.62
2006	4.24	4.69	5.27	4.12	4.34	4.61	4.48	3.98
2005	3.86	4.41	4.87	3.84	4.04	4.35	4.27	3.83
2004	3.68	4.25	4.67	3.67	3.86	4.22	4.18	3.8
2003	3.49	4.11	4.36	3.45	3.7	4.05	3.97
2002	3.22	3.92	4.17	3.33	3.48	3.8	3.77
2001	3.13	3.82	3.97	2.7	3.32	3.63
2000	3.16	3.94	4.08	2.87	3.25	3.62
1999	3.16	4.02	3.99	2.82	3.18
1998	3.17	3.94	---	2.76	3.2
1997	3.14	3.84	---	2.9	3.16
1996	2.99	3.7	---	2.82	3.16
1995	2.84
1994	2.7
1993	2.63
1992	2.56
1991	2.51
YEARS OPENED (includes 1st year)	30	25	22	25	25	21	19	17	14	12	12	10	10	8	6	4	2
CAGR	3.87%	2.79%	4.33%	4.26%	4.32%	3.71%	3.36%	3.46%	3.69%	4.99%	4.66%	3.81%	3.80%	2.44%	2.03%	0.41%	0.00%
Last 5 Years CAGR	5.46%	3.58%	4.63%	4.73%	5.94%	4.58%	2.87%	4.47%	3.62%	4.50%	4.21%	4.17%	4.18%	2.81%	2.20%	0.41%	0.00%

 

[CarolMN]

@Lorana - Thanks for calculating all the CAGR percentages. IMO those are the most useful for seeing long-term trends.

FWIW, I think it's too early to see how CCV & especially Riv play out, but I think the 2042 resorts have done quite well! One of these days, I'm going to calculate the CAGR for the inflation rate of each resort's opening to compare.

 

[Lorana]

@Lorana - Thanks for calculating all the CAGR percentages. IMO those are the most useful for seeing long-term trends.

FWIW, I think it's too early to see how CCV & especially Riv play out, but I think the 2042 resorts have done quite well! One of these days, I'm going to calculate the CAGR for the inflation rate of each resort's opening to compare.

I like looking at the long term trends when buying to get an idea of what I'm in for over the long-haul, but I look at the last 5 years CAGR to estimate NEXT year's dues, since I put money aside every paycheck to save up for next year's dues payment.

 

[EIU110]

Amazing data, THANKS!!!!!

 

[gscott8075]

Hilton Head -
9 years to get to $4 pp
5 years to get to $5 pp
5 years to get to $6 pp
4 years to get to $7 pp
2 years to get to $8 pp
1 year to get to $9 pp
2 years to get to $10 pp

Dues increase is 9.6% going from $9.10 to $9.97 - that's $2000 per year for 200 points - for 5 nights in a 2BR in the summer.

For this and the many rule changes and restrictions, we decided to sell last year. The value proposition was no longer there for us.