Love looking Back - It helps When I am right too ;)

[Shaden]

Really intersting looking back at some of the exchanges we have had about this.

There are a ton of these old threads, people who were worried about the outcome of FP+ (like myself) and people who were hopeful (Like David in the thread) and people who were either outright apocalyptic or drinking the kool-aid.

Anyway intersting exchange here, and I wonder if people think this will get worse or better ...

We are already seeing rides/attractions booked at 60 days out. Yes we also see people able to book the day of even, but that doesn't help the many many people shut out at 60 days. And we are seeing far more reports of people blocked out at 30 days, from a broader spectrum of attactions.

So, will this get worse over the next few years, or better ?

The original exchange: http://www.disboards.com/threads/mm...acation-planning.3205013/page-3#post-50189586

 

[glassslippergirl]

I was disappointed last week when I booked my FPs 30 days out. It was the first time we've planned so much so far ahead, and I'm not happy with the outcome. First, at Epcot (where there's nothing new), there were FPs available for everything I wanted, but as they were all tier 1, I had to take FPs we didn't really want. Then, top choices at MK were taken. I don't mind waiting in line usually. But we are two adults with a toddler, so we would have to split up for child swap. It's a family vacation, so I prioritize time with the family over the really long line. Our choice, but one we wouldn't have had to make with FP-.

I only see it getting worse. It seems like there's a lot of new attractions in the works. But Disney will roll them out slowly making each more valuable. DH and I have wiled away many an hour dreaming of SW land, but can you imagine trying to get a FP even at the 60 day mark? Onsite guests with a 10 day stay on their computers at midnight will be bragging about their big score for the last day of their trip. We take short trips and stay off site. Again, a choice, but one that had less negative impact with FP-.

Even with more E-ticket rides in the parks most in need, I don't see tiering going away either. So we will still have to make choices between top rides even when FPs are available.

That's my take. I hope it goes differently, but money spends at places other than WDW.

 

[NavyDad]

I'm not sure anyone in that thread was really right or wrong. The outcomes and reactions seem to be pretty mixed.

There is basically 1 ride and 1 M&G right now that even comes close to booking up at the 60 day mark and that is only at the very busiest times of year (so basically less than 5% of the rides during about 10% of the year). We have a trip planned in one of the busiest times of year coming up and I was still seeing availability for a party of 5 for those two attractions for at least a week after the 60 day mark. The rest of the "headliners" all around WDW have pretty wide open availability most times of year for quite a while after the 60 day mark.

On the other hand there is certainly a hardship in finding FP availability for those that have to wait until the 30 day mark for some rides at certain times of year. At that point for a few hard to get FP you either have to get lucky or creative. Predictions that some people could get locked out of some attractions at the 30 mark seem very accurate.

As with many of the more controversial topics of our time I think perspective frames the Fast Pass debate. I think those that came into it with a negative view of the concept and how Disney Parks would implement it will continue to find validation in their views. On the other hand the "Kool Aid" drinkers will continue to accentuate the positives as the flood waters approach their chins LOL

The reality is somewhere in the messy middle....

 

[momof2n2]

Wow. As the OP of that 17 month old thread I'm amused that I'd thought I'd get 60 days as an off-siter.


Oddly - we were still guessing there to some extent - yet so much has come to pass.

I'm working on re-entering the WDW playing field next year with different expectations than all our previous trips. I'm sure we'll have fun on some level. As it's still 12 mos away I'm really hoping for some changes, however.

 

[Jadyreen1282]

I am sure that it will still be a FP mess when we go in September but we are approaching it this way, when we get frustrated over it we will just do something else like Resort hop, hang at Ol man Island, rent a racer at CR, see some shows at HS, get some good pictures, and, well, enjoy an adult beverage till things quiet down again.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I remember thinking FP+ was going to be great for my family. We don't like rope drop, we're not big re-riders.

Then the tiers came. That's when FP+ lost me.

I distinctly remember when it happened and I thought, "Nope, not good." Tiers are the king of rationing, nothing says a park doesn't have enough capacity than when they have to put tiers it to make sure that everyone can ride one good ride.

Anyway, yeah, good times, good times

 

[Shaden]

OOOOH DANG ....

Another prediction made and refuted ... but wow. Wish this guy were still around he offered so much solid insight ...

Now 4 is a so so call, we still only have 3 day, though more are possible, the initial booking is 3 per day.
Rope Drop is still and advantage, for certain, but we are seeing lines build faster than they were before.
Haven't seen an upcharge yet for additional FPs ... no sign of this at all. I guess 1 out of 10 wrong isn't bad

My top 10 FP+ predictions for 2014:

1. HS and EP will continue to be tiered
2. AK and MK will not be tiered
3. The one park per day restriction will stay
4. The allotment of 3 FP's per day will not increase
5. Onsite guests will maintain a scheduling advantage
6. Rope Drop and EMH will no longer be advantageous
7. There will not be additional FP's available for an upcharge
8. FP Kiosk queues will become an issue
9. Standby lines will decrease somewhat from the extremes while FP lines will spread to all attractions (queue equilibrium)
10. The app will still be buggy

I certainly won't mind being wrong on any of these over the next 12 months

 

[NavyDad]

Travis isn't around anymore? My sarcasm meter is always broken so I sometimes have trouble with Shaden's posts

1. True
2. True
3. Push - can make additional FP's at second park
4. Push - technically wrong but I will agree with Shaden and call this a Push
5. True
6. FALSE - especially in the case of Rope Drop
7. True
8. True - maybe should get double credit. This is the worst part of the current system as it stands today IMO
9. Push - some STBY lines have increased, some have decreased. Correct on FP spreading. (could give 2/3 credit...)
10. Push - I am going to call this one false but some will disagree so I will go with Push. As someone who has HATED Disney IT for years I will say the MDE APP is 10,000 percent improved from 2013. I am interested to see how it works in the park but as far as using it to make ADR's and move around FP reservations at my house it has been pretty much flawless.

Travis was spot on with about half of these with mixed results on the rest. Obviously he has a good understanding of how this all works and overall pretty good with his predictions.

 

[goofyernmost]

It depends on when you are going many times. I know that I, staying offsite, didn't even decide to go until 9 days ahead of time, made my FP reservations and some dining then and with only one exception I was able to get what I wanted and fit it in easily with my personal schedule. The only one I couldn't get was 7DMT so I just went to MK in the evening, waited for the parade to start and was in and out of the ride in less then 30 minutes.

 

[Planogirl]

When I posted in that thread I was concerned but they were still giving legacy fastpasses to offsite visitors so we had a great time as usual. The last time we went we had the "pleasure" of using FP+ and it didn't work for me. I think that it still needs a lot of improvement.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

Travis isn't around anymore? My sarcasm meter is always broken so I sometimes have trouble with Shaden's posts

1. True
2. True
3. Push - can make additional FP's at second park
4. Push - technically wrong but I will agree with Shaden and call this a Push
5. True
6. FALSE - especially in the case of Rope Drop
7. True
8. True - maybe should get double credit. This is the worst part of the current system as it stands today IMO
9. Push - some STBY lines have increased, some have decreased. Correct on FP spreading. (could give 2/3 credit...)
10. Push - I am going to call this one false but some will disagree so I will go with Push. As someone who has HATED Disney IT for years I will say the MDE APP is 10,000 percent improved from 2013. I am interested to see how it works in the park but as far as using it to make ADR's and move around FP reservations at my house it has been pretty much flawless.

Travis was spot on with about half of these with mixed results on the rest. Obviously he has a good understanding of how this all works and overall pretty good with his predictions.

Imma gonna have to say I don't agree with your assessment or your math. I think the only one he was really wrong on is #6. The one you have labeled Push...he's actually pretty spot on with those, especially if you're looking at prebooking; without the full post, it's not clear what context the post was made in. As for #10...he didn't say that it would still be as bad as it was, he said that it would still be buggy, and he's totally right, so you really can't call that a Push...he's right. The app is still buggy. MDE still only loads for me half the time. Sometimes, data from it goes missing. It still crashes a lot. It isn't as bad as 2013, but a year and a half later, you'd think it would be more stable than it is.

 

[Shaden]

I am going to say that no one said you wouldn't be able to book ANY FPs at 59 days out, just that FPs would be sold out at 60 days, and they are.

Almost everything that LT suggested is true, I do agree that RD and EMH are certainly still advantageous, though their advantage has been slightly decreased, still by far the most advantageous.

But he was hitting about 9 out of 10 ... pretty damn fantastic ... especially considering the number of people who came in then (and still come in) telling us this was all untrue, and WDW would never let that happen....

 

[Planogirl]

Those predictions that LT made are really pretty good. I was so clueless back then and he seemed to have a good understanding.

 

[Shaden]

But really I am going back to the original question, because I want to keep this about Strategies and stuff ....

How do people think this is going to continue to play out over the next year ? What can we expect ?

Increased need to book at 60 days ? Decreased availability of 4th and beyond FPs, etc ?

What should we expect so we can plan around that ?

 

[Jennifer Brown]

I think those that came into it with a negative view of the concept and how Disney Parks would implement it will continue to find validation in their views.

 

[karensi]

I'm just kind of curious as to why the original thread was closed??

 

[momof2n2]

I'm just kind of curious as to why the original thread was closed??

As the OP of that thread I wondered too. I was so embarrassed I'd done something wrong.

To the OP of this thread - I just hope people keep coming back and sharing their experiences so we can all just keep tweaking our touring plans.

Me? I am working to change my expectations. But I'm also hoping WDW makes some changes on their end, too.

Crazy those predictions were so accurate. I see 9/10 as spot on in my assessment.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I am going to say that no one said you wouldn't be able to book ANY FPs at 59 days out, just that FPs would be sold out at 60 days, and they are.

Almost everything that LT suggested is true, I do agree that RD and EMH are certainly still advantageous, though their advantage has been slightly decreased, still by far the most advantageous.

But he was hitting about 9 out of 10 ... pretty damn fantastic ... especially considering the number of people who came in then (and still come in) telling us this was all untrue, and WDW would never let that happen....

Rope Drop and EMH are still advantageous although way less so. I think there is about an hour before wait times start cranking up now. So I think that prediction was somewhat right.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I think those that came into it with a negative view of the concept and how Disney Parks would implement it will continue to find validation in their views.

I see you are new!

 

[ArwenMarie]

But really I am going back to the original question, because I want to keep this about Strategies and stuff ....

How do people think this is going to continue to play out over the next year ? What can we expect ?

Increased need to book at 60 days ? Decreased availability of 4th and beyond FPs, etc ?

What should we expect so we can plan around that ?

I think what we are working with now is what we will be working with in a year's time in terms of strategies. The only change I can see is if they start letting people book the 4th FP on the app. Then I think people will start booking FPs earlier in the day, rather the current consensus which is to save them for the afternoon/evening.

I think this is FP+. I think it's done. Talking to myself here more than anyone else I think it's time to probably just accept it. I don't see big changes, I don't see any room for big changes.